Only one-third of Vermont's towns gained population since 2010

Since the last U.S. Census in 2010, Vermont’s population has declined by 1,400 people. Only four counties in Vermont — Addison, Chittenden, Franklin and Lamoille — experienced population growth over that period. And we now know, courtesy of the latest Census Bureau estimates, that only one-third of Vermont’s 255 towns and cities gained population between 2010 and 2016. 

It’s even worse in some parts of the state. 

In Windsor, Rutland and Bennington counties, no towns had more people in 2016 than in 2010 except for tiny Landgrove in Bennington County, which added one person to its 2010 population of 159. 

In the Northeast Kingdom, Caledonia County had only four towns with any growth and three of them added only four people each since 2010.

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In Orleans County only two towns added population, but they grew very rapidly.  Newport Town’s growth rate was 58 percent, the fastest growing town in the entire state. Neighboring Jay also experienced significant growth, both benefiting from the big expansion at Jay Peak Resort.  But that did not spill over into any other town in the county or indeed the entire Northeast Kingdom.

Every historical city in Vermont, with the exception of Middlebury, lost population over the past six years. That includes Brattleboro, Bennington, Rutland City, St. Johnsbury, Springfield, Bellows Falls, White River Junction, Newport City, St. Albans City, and, closer to home, both Winooski and Burlington. 

The greater Burlington area, essentially Chittenden County and parts of Franklin County, was the only area of the state that saw any widespread population growth.  Population grew in every Chittenden County town, except for Burlington and Winooski.  And only four Franklin County towns — Enosburg, Richford, Berkshire, and St. Albans City — lost population. 

Only 11 Vermont towns recorded population growth faster than the national rate of 4.5 percent and all but two, Jay and Newport Town, were in the Burlington area. 

The population numbers tell us that people are not moving into the cities of Burlington and Winooski—or any other city in the state.  But they also are no longer moving into the more rural areas of Vermont or of Chittenden County like people did in the growth years of the 1960s through the 1990s.   Now the fastest growing areas around Burlington are the close-in suburbs including South Burlington, Essex, and Williston and also Milton, Fairfax, Georgia, and St. Albans Town. 

Those areas are growing for two main reasons:  First, they are close to where people work and commuting times are short.  Time is money, and as people get wealthier, long commutes become more and more costly.  That’s why the fast growing towns are, in general, north of Burlington (Milton, Fairfax, Georgia, and St. Albans Town) with easy access to I-89, and towns in northern Addison County are not growing. 

Secondly, housing costs play a role. The towns north of Burlington along I-89 have average housing prices in the $200,000-$250,000 range. Housing in the slower growing towns — Underhill, Jericho, Richmond, and Hinesburg, for example —averaged closer to $300,000. The exceptions to this were Essex and South Burlington, which grew rapidly (by Vermont standards) but have average housing prices in the $300,000 range.

Shelburne is also an exception to that rule.  Its population grew despite an average house price of $400,000 last year.  That is affordable if you compare it to Charlotte, where the average house sold for $500,000 but it helps explain why Charlotte did not experience as much growth as Shelburne.

What about Burlington and Winooski?  Both are close to most jobs in the area.  But Burlington’s houses are fairly expensive, with an average price of about $280,000 last year.  Winooski’s average is a lot less, at $230,000.  The lack of population growth in the two cities means that people are not attracted to Burlington’s city amenities given what it costs to live there.  And despite relatively cheap housing and a short commute, people are still not moving to Winooski. 

All of these numbers should concern us.  Over the past decade and more, Vermont policymakers have enacted legislation to try to revitalize Vermont’s historic downtowns.  If we measure success by people moving into those downtowns, or even to those cities, it’s hard to deem that legislation as a success.  We hear a lot about Vermont being a great place to live, and it wins accolades in surveys and in the media, but the fact is that only a handful of towns have grown as fast as the nation’s population.  People vote with their feet by moving to places where they want to live, and they’re not moving to most towns in Vermont.    

Population changes in the greater Burlington area

Art Woolf is associate professor of economics at the University of Vermont.