Just what constitutes a legitimate surprise in tennis is a relative matter. Let’s face it, if Jo-Wilfried Tsonga makes the semifinals of the Australian Open, it will represent a great effort, but not a surprise. We expect No. 8 Tsonga to contend for the title, even if his seeding says that he should be finished in the quarterfinals.
You measure the surprise quotient in degrees, and only if you’re really a connoisseur. Let’s face it, most people could care less if No. 16 Roberta Vinci makes the semis, or even if Janko Tipsarevic loses in the final. A tournament rarely has more than two or three huge surprises, and those are much less likely to be based on the serial performances required to go deep into an event than on single unexpected results.
You want a ground-shaking surprise? Virginie Razzano over Serena Williams, first round of last year's French Open. Lukas Rosol over Rafael Nadal, second round of Wimbledon. You want surprise an aficionado can appreciate? Try Mikhail Kukushkin rolling into the fourth round, as happened in Oz last year.
I’m not Nostradamus, and I don’t have a drop of Mayan blood. I can’t predict that James Blake will qualify and win the first Grand Slam of his career at age 33. But I will pick five players who might surpass the expectations dictated by the rankings or their reputations:
Tomas Berdych (ATP No. 6): There isn’t much Berdych can do to surprise us other than win the tournament, and I believe this may be his time. Although he was upset in Chennai by qualifier Roberto Bautista Agut and has taught his fans not to expect too much of him, the reality is that Berdych is a former Grand Slam finalist, still young (27), and has quietly buried his reputation as one of the tour’s prominent head cases. Sure, he still has mystifying mental lapses, especially against the players ranked above him. But in general he’s become a model of consistency, and tenaciously clings to that mid-Top 10 ranking.
The physical demands of the Australian Open are such that fit, well-built, and preferably lean specimens—think Marat Safin—enjoy a real advantage when it comes to either avoiding or winning those brutal five setters in intense Aussie heat. Berdych, at 6'5" and 200 pounds, fits that bill perfectly. He’s 20-9 Down Under, and reached the quarterfinals last year. He’s played just one Melbourne five-setter in his entire career, which seems a sign that one way or the other, he wants to get it over and done with. (That five-set match was a 2009 fourth-round loss to Roger Federer; no shame in that.)
When Pat Cash predicted that he’d win Wimbledon one day, he winked at me and added, “Every dog has his day, mate.” That’s how I feel about Berdych’s Grand Slam career.