Posts published in August, 2011

New Questions, and Old, Surround Palin’s Iowa Trip

By Michael D. Shear
Sarah Palin is going to New Hampshire and Iowa, where she attended the Iowa State Fair in July. Eric Thayer for The New York TimesSarah Palin is going to New Hampshire and Iowa, where she attended the Iowa State Fair in July.

Several things might explain why Sarah Palin is scheduled to travel to Iowa and New Hampshire over the Labor Day weekend.

Ms. Palin, the former governor of Alaska and 2008 vice presidential nominee, could be using the trips as a prelude to an already planned presidential campaign, serving up the latest in a series of not-so-subtle hints about the importance of these early voting states.

It could be another attempt to test the appetite — if any — among conservative activists for her particular brand of celebrity-infused politics. During her trip, Ms. Palin is scheduled to attend Tea Party rallies in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Or it could be nothing more than the latest piece of evidence that Ms. Palin — the former host of her own TV reality show who gets mobbed everywhere she goes — simply craves the attention that accompanies her strategically planned appearances.

Her small collection of advisers are remaining coy about her motivations. Aides will say only that she enjoys participating in Tea Party events on behalf of the activists who view politics much as she does.

But the weekend travel comes at the beginning of a month that Ms. Palin herself has said will be decisive. In interviews, she has said she will decide by the end of September whether she will run for president. To wait any longer would be unfair to her supporters, she has said.

The uncertainty about her presidential plans has made her travel schedule the subject of great scrutiny and discussion.

On Wednesday, that discussion became even more unusual amid a series of reports that her appearance at the Iowa Tea Party rally had been called off, then was just put on hold, and finally was — maybe — back on track.

Twitter messages flew back and forth throughout the day, as did anonymous quotes from Ms. Palin’s advisers accusing the Tea Party organizers in Iowa of not dealing honestly with them about the logistics of the event.

One top Palin adviser who spoke on condition of anonymity said, “We would get a different story literally every 20 minutes” from the Tea Party organizers. At one point, the organizers suggested that they would sell special tickets that would give the buyers backstage access to Ms. Palin, the adviser said.

As of Wednesday evening, the appearance in Iowa appeared to be back on, though Ms. Palin’s advisers cautioned that she could still take a pass on the event if the organizers continued to change the terms of her appearance.

“She likes doing stuff for the Tea Party,” the adviser said. “In the end, this is about the participants. We didn’t want to disappoint them.”

Disappointing the Tea Party would not, of course, be a good tactic for her possible presidential bid. But being responsive to an important constituency does not necessarily mean Ms. Palin has decided to run. The Tea Party movement is a big part of Ms. Palin’s fan base — its followers buy her books, watch her analyses on Fox News, consume her Twitter and Facebook posts and tune in to her TV specials about the wilderness of Alaska. Even if she does not run, Palin Inc. may be wary about her audience.

If Ms. Palin decides not to run, it is possible that she could choose to exert her political influence by endorsing one of the current candidates, potentially Rick Perry, who is closer to her than any of the other Republican hopefuls.

Whichever route Ms. Palin takes politically, Tea Party officials were saying Wednesday that they were delighted to have her appearing this weekend.

“We are always thrilled to have Sarah Palin join one of our rallies,” Amy Kremer, chairwoman of Tea Party Express, said in a statement about her planned appearance in New Hampshire. “She is an electrifying figure in conservative politics and a hero to the Tea Party movement.”

Jeff Zeleny contributed reporting.

Tea Party Groups to Protest Romney in N.H.

By Kate Zernike
Eric Gay/Associated Press

Many Tea Party supporters have been less than enthusiastic about the prospect of Mitt Romney becoming the Republican nominee for president in 2012, but now that antipathy is becoming louder.

Several Tea Party groups in the early primary state of New Hampshire are planning to protest outside a Romney speech on Sunday. They will be joined by FreedomWorks, the libertarian advocacy group that has helped Tea Party groups to grow across the country and that on Wednesday dismissed Mr. Romney as a “political opportunist” for trying to claim Tea Party support.

With Gov. Rick Perry of Texas surging ahead of Mr. Romney in some polls — especially among Tea Party supporters — Mr. Romney told a New Hampshire newspaper recently that he thought he, too, had plenty of Tea Party support.

But many Tea Party supporters view him with suspicion because of the health care legislation he enacted as governor of Massachusetts, which was largely considered a model for the federal health care overhaul they ardently oppose.

“I don’t know of a single Tea Party person who likes or supports Romney,” said Andrew Hemingway, chairman of the Republican Liberty Caucus of New Hampshire and the lead organizer of the protest Sunday. “It’s really pretty simple: the Tea Party stands for limited government, free markets and individual responsibility. By passing his health care plan, he violated all three of those.”

“Why all of a sudden now is he interested in the Tea Party?” Mr. Hemingway added. “It’s obviously because now Rick Perry is involved and is garnering huge support from Tea Party folks.”

Mr. Romney is speaking at a stop on the Tea Party Express bus tour in Concord, N.H. FreedomWorks had been a participant in the tour, but announced Wednesday that it was pulling out to protest the Tea Party Express invitation to Mr. Romney, and to a speech at an earlier stop on the tour by Orrin Hatch, the senior senator from Utah, who some Tea Party groups are hoping to unseat in 2012.

The protest also highlights the lack of agreement among Tea Party supporters about what tack to take in the presidential campaign. Many Tea Party groups criticized Amy Kremer, the chairwoman of Tea Party Express, for telling an interviewer this spring that the Tea Party movement would support whoever became the Republican nominee, even if it were Mr. Romney.

“If every political opportunist claiming to be a Tea Partier is accepted unconditionally, then the Tea Party brand loses all meaning,” said Matt Kibbe, president of FreedomWorks. The protest Sunday, he said, would “remind Mitt Romney that when it comes to policy, actions speak louder than words.”

Brendan Steinhauser, the group’s director of federal and state campaigns, said, “We need to force this discussion to take place.”

In a Gallup poll in mid-August, Mr. Perry led among Tea Party supporters, with 35 percent. Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota and Mr. Romney followed with 14 percent each. (Among Republicans who did not support the Tea Party, Mr. Romney led with 23 percent, follow by Mr. Perry at 20 percent and Representative Ron Paul of Texas at 16 percent; Mrs. Bachmann had the support of 6 percent.)

Mr. Hemingway had kind words for Mr. Perry. “He governed from the right,” he said, “He did things the Tea Party wants. Mitt Romney didn’t. Mitt Romney governed from the left.” But Mr. Hemingway said that he had not yet settled on a candidate to support, adding that he liked Mrs. Bachmann and Mr. Paul. “I’m waiting to see which one moves forward as the leader.”

FreedomWorks, similarly, said that it was not making any endorsements. Mr. Steinhauser said he would support “the most conservative candidate that can win.”

“It’s not Romney,” he said. “There are other folks who are emerging, and we want to give them a chance to compete.”

Mr. Romney is scheduled to speak at the Tea Party Express rally Sunday in Concord at 6 p.m. The protesters will hold a press conference across the street at 5:30 p.m.

Mr. Hemingway said that five New Hampshire groups had pledged to attend, and that a coalition of 40 additional groups was likely to join as well. On Wednesday, he said, a group from Vermont announced that it, too, would join.

Caucus Video: Job Plans Aplenty From 2012 Candidates; the Debt Committee Begins Work

By Ben Werschkul

The Caucus | Jobs Plans Aplenty

A look ahead as President Obama and Republican candidates are set to release their plans for jobs. Also, a report from Capitol Hill as the committee charged with taming the deficit begins work.

By Ben Werschkul on August 31, 2011.

Jeff Zeleny and Michael D. Shear look ahead as President Obama and Republican candidates are set to release their plans for jobs. Also, Jennifer Steinhauer reports from Capitol Hill as the committee charged with taming the deficit begins work.

* Caucus Video Archive

G.O.P. Congressman Might Leave Black Caucus Over Remarks

By Jennifer Steinhauer
Representative Allen West, a Florida Republican, said he might drop out of the Congressional Black Caucus. Harry Hamburg/Associated PressRepresentative Allen West, a Florida Republican, said he might drop out of the Congressional Black Caucus.

Well, it was interesting while it lasted.

Representative Allen West of Florida, the first Republican to join the Congressional Black Caucus in over a decade, said Wednesday that he was considering leaving the caucus because of remarks a fellow lawmaker made about the Tea Party.

“When you start using words such as lynching,” Mr. West said in an interview with “Fox & Friends,” “that’s a very reprehensible word and I think we should move away from using that type of language.”

Mr. West was apparently alluding to remarks made by Representative André Carson, a Democrat from Indiana and member of the caucus leadership team. During a town-hall-style meeting in Miami last week, Mr. Carson said that some members of Congress affiliated with the Tea Party movement – which Mr. West has aligned himself with – “would love to see us as second-class citizens” and would love to see blacks “hanging on a tree.”

His remarks came on the heels of those by Representative Maxine Waters, Democrat of California and a member of the caucus, who recently said that the Tea Party “can go straight to hell.”

Mr. West, who was one of two black Republicans elected to the House in 2010, added during his Fox interview, “One of the things I’m starting to think about is reconsidering my membership in the Congressional Black Caucus, because I don’t think they’re moving Read more…

Obama Reschedules Economy Speech at Boehner’s Request

By Helene Cooper

9:40 p.m. | Updated President Obama acquiesced to a request from Speaker John A. Boehner on Wednesday to move the date of his proposed address to a joint session of Congress to Thursday Sept. 8, after Mr. Boehner all but rejected Mr. Obama’s request to speak next Wednesday.

Mr. Obama had asked to deliver a much anticipated speech outlining his proposals to boost employment and the economy on Sept. 7 — the same night as a scheduled Republican presidential debate, as it happens.

In a letter to Congressional leaders on Wednesday, Mr. Obama said it was his “intention to lay out a series of bipartisan proposals that the Congress can take immediately to continue to rebuild the American economy by strengthening small businesses, helping Americans get back to work, and putting more money in the paychecks of the middle class and working Americans.”

Mr. Boehner responded with a letter saying that Sept. 7 was not so good for a presidential address before a joint session of Congress. Might he be able to reschedule to Sept. 8 instead?

“As the majority leader announced more than a month ago, the House will not be in session until Wednesday, Sept. 7, with votes at 6:30 that evening,” Mr. Boehner wrote. “With the significant amount of time, typically more than three hours, that is required to allow for a security sweep of the House Chamber before receiving a president, it is my recommendation that your address be held on the following evening, when we can ensure there will be no parliamentary or logistical impediments that might detract from your remarks.”

That Mr. Obama was going to make his speech next week was expected. But it is remarkable that he would choose to do so in such an elevated setting as a joint session, and at the same time that Republican candidates for president will be laying out their own visions for how to get the country out of the economic doldrums. It is a challenging gesture from a president who appears set on laying out as stark a contrast as he can between where he would like to take the country and where the opposition would go.

“Our nation faces unprecedented economic challenges, and millions of hard-working Americans continue to look for jobs,” Mr. Obama said in his letter to Mr. Boehner and the Senate majority leader, Harry Reid, Democrat of Nevada. “As I have traveled across our country this summer and spoken with our fellow Americans, I have heard a consistent message: Washington needs to put aside politics and start making decisions based on what is best for our country and not what is best for each of our parties in order to grow the economy and create jobs,” Mr. Obama said. “We must answer this call.” Read more…

Huntsman Seeks Far-Reaching Tax Changes

By Michael D. Shear

Jon M. Huntsman Jr., the former governor of Utah, will call for overhauling the tax code and a new focus on American manufacturing when he delivers a speech detailing his jobs agenda on Wednesday, advisers said.

Mr. Huntsman, who is struggling to capture the public’s attention in his bid for the presidency, will deliver the speech at the Gilchrist Metal Fabricating facility in Hudson, N.H.

There, aides said he will repeat his call for a tax code with dramatically lower individual and corporate tax rates, an end to taxes on capital gains and dividends and the elimination of the alternative minimum tax.

But in exchange, Mr. Huntsman will say the tax code needs to be stripped of all loopholes, deductions and tax giveaways, a step that would make the changes neutral in terms of how much money would flow into the government’s coffers.

“Meeting our challenges will require serious solutions, but above all, it will require serious leadership – a quality in high demand in our nation’s capital, and among my opponents on the campaign trail,” Mr. Huntsman plans to say, according to excerpts released by his campaign.

The Republican candidates for president are under pressure — as is President Obama — to present concrete ideas for jump-starting the economy and creating jobs for the millions of out-of-work Americans.

Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, is scheduled to give what his aides are calling a major jobs address on Sept. 6. Mr. Obama has said he will present his own jobs plan next week as well.

In Mr. Huntsman’s case, the New Hampshire speech is an opportunity to get a jump on his rivals. 

In addition to the tax code changes, advisers said Mr. Huntsman would also talk about the need for “substantial regulatory roll-backs,” new trade deals beyond the agreements currently pending in Congress, and a new focus on energy independence.

“The president believes that we can tax and spend and regulate our way to prosperity. We cannot,” Mr. Huntsman wills say, according to the excerpts. “When I was born, manufacturing comprised 25 percent of our G.D.P. Today, it’s down to 10 percent. This does not reflect a decline in American ingenuity or work ethic; it reflects our government’s failure to adapt to the realities of the 21st-century economy.”

Mr. Huntsman, who served for two years as Mr. Obama’s ambassador to China, will argue for a new effort to produce the products in America that are currently being sent overseas for assembly.

“We need American entrepreneurs not only thinking of products like the iPhone or Segway; we need American workers building those products,” he plans to say. “It’s time for Made in America to mean something again.”

Will Arizona Scramble the Republican Primary Calendar?

By Michael D. Shear

One of the looming questions for the Republican presidential candidates — and the political establishment that surrounds them — is this: when will the voting actually begin?

A certain answer is probably weeks away — leaving the campaign strategists to pull out their hair for a while longer. But a piece of the puzzle could be resolved by the end of the week.

In Arizona, Gov. Jan Brewer is required by law to set the date of the state’s presidential nominating contest by issuing a proclamation 150 days in advance of the voting. Ms. Brewer is mulling the idea of setting the state’s primary on Jan. 31, and a decision would have to come by this Saturday.

If that happens, Arizona would set off a cascade of other changes in the 2012 voting calendar. As described by my colleague Jeff Zeleny recently, Florida would almost certainly move its primary ahead of Arizona as it seeks to retain the influence over the choice of nominee it had in 2008.

That would, of course, force Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina to schedule earlier contests so that they can remain at the front of the pack. Longtime political observers believe that voting could start in Iowa as early as the first week of January. Read more…

Palin Adds New Hampshire to Labor Day Itinerary

By Jeff Zeleny

Sarah Palin’s political itinerary over Labor Day weekend is becoming clearer, even if her intentions are not.

Ms. Palin, who was already set to deliver a speech in Iowa on Saturday, has added a stop in New Hampshire. She is now scheduled to speak at an afternoon Tea Party rally on Monday at Veterans Square Park in Manchester.

The addition of New Hampshire to Ms. Palin’s weekend schedule adds another layer of curiosity to speculation about her political future. She has yet to rule out joining the Republican presidential race, but she is not expected to announce her intentions during her weekend visits to the early voting states.

“We are always thrilled to have Sarah Palin join one of our rallies,” Amy Kremer, chairman of Tea Party Express, said in a statement. “She is an electrifying figure in conservative politics and a hero to the Tea Party movement.”

Mitt Romney was previously scheduled to deliver a speech at the Tea Party rally on Labor Day. But he decided to adjust his schedule to join Gov. Rick Perry of Texas and other candidates at a forum in South Carolina on Monday sponsored by Senator Jim DeMint, Republican of South Carolina.

Ms. Palin has said that she is likely to make her intentions known by the end of September. Her associates believe that she is considering three options: pledging her support for the presidential bid of Mr. Perry, declaring her own candidacy or holding off on making a decision about which candidate to support.

The dynamic of the Republican presidential campaign has changed considerably in recent weeks, with Mr. Perry eclipsing Mr. Romney in several national opinion polls. As Mr. Romney takes new steps to engage Mr. Perry, the decision of Ms. Palin remains the biggest unanswered question in the Republican nominating fight.

Republican Hopefuls Sound Anything But

By Michael D. Shear

Looking for a bit of optimism about the future? Hoping for a quick psychological pick-me-up amid the economic downturn? 

Don’t tune in to the Republican presidential candidates.

As they reach for the sharpest contrast they can find with President Obama, the Republican presidential hopefuls are sounding anything but hopeful. On the trail, they are painting an increasingly gloomy picture of the nation they want to lead.

In a speech to the Veterans of Foreign Wars on Tuesday, Mitt Romney said that Americans “stand near the threshold of profound economic misery.” 

In her announcement speech last month, Michele Bachmann bemoaned the fact that economic success and “dreams are distant for many Americans.”

A new political action committee formed to bolster the chances of Jon M. Huntsman Jr. offered the following grim assessment: “A country in unprecedented turmoil. Unemployment. Overspending. Hopelessness.”

In just about every speech they give, the Republican candidates are pushing a depressing message in the hopes that voters who agree will blame Mr. Obama and elect Republicans. 

Surveys suggest the Republicans are merely parroting what the American public already believes. In a recent Associated Press poll, 75 percent of those surveyed said the country was headed in the wrong direction.

But the strategy requires the presidential contenders to walk a fine line. Too much talk about gloom and doom could turn off voters who are tired of feeling worried. And some voters are already beginning to worry that the Republican candidates are “talking down” the economy even more. Read more…

G.O.P. Staff Member Picked to Run Deficit Panel

By Carl Hulse

Leaders of the new Congressional deficit-reduction committee have chosen a veteran Senate Republican staff member to take over the challenging job of running the panel.

Aides said that the co-chairman and co-chairwoman of the committee have asked Mark Prater, the chief tax counsel for Republicans on the Senate Finance Committee, to serve as staff director of the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction.

Mr. Prater, with more than two decades of experience on the powerful tax-writing and revenue panel, has won the respect and trust of members of both parties for his work over the years on such initiatives as the 1997 budget agreement that led to the children’s health insurance program.

“Mark has a well-earned reputation for being a workhorse who members of both parties have relied on,” Senator Patty Murray, Democrat of Washington and co-chairwoman of the deficit reduction panel, and Representative Jeb Hensarling, Republican of Texas and the panel’s co-chairman, said in a statement. Read more…

Romney, in Perry Territory, Faults ‘Career Politicians’

By Ashley Parker

12:53 p.m. | Updated Apparently, just setting foot in Texas imbued Mitt Romney with a bit of that Lone Star swagger.

Though Mr. Romney has assiduously avoided taking on one rival for the Republican presidential nomination, Gov. Rick Perry of Texas, Mr. Romney took a veiled swipe at Mr. Perry in a speech Tuesday before the Veterans of Foreign Wars national convention in San Antonio.

“I have spent most of my life outside of politics, dealing with real problems in the real economy,” Mr. Romney said. “Career politicians got us into this mess, and they simply don’t know how to get us out.”

The attack line, which lit up the Twittersphere Tuesday morning when the campaign released some early excerpts, was met with some applause, but it is a point that Mr. Romney makes frequently on the campaign trail. Mr. Romney often argues that he is not a career politician and is one of the few candidates, having spent 25 years in the private sector, with the executive know-how to create jobs.

In his speech before the V.F.W., Mr. Romney tried to walk the line between offering an optimistic vision for the nation’s future — he even name-checked former President Ronald Reagan and mentioned “the shining city on a hill” — and painting a grim picture Read more…

2012 Campaign: What to Watch For in September

By Michael D. Shear
Sarah Palin is swarmed by fans as she visits the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines, Iowa, August 12, 2011, one day before the Ames Straw Poll. Max Whittaker for The New York TimesSarah Palin was swarmed by fans when she visited the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines earlier this month.

With summer over and Labor Day approaching, the 2012 campaign is set to enter its most important phase yet: the fall primary season.

And September is shaping up as a critical month in determining who will emerge as the true front-runner in the Republican race to face President Obama next year.

Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota on Monday visited the Bay of Pigs museum in Miami. Hans Deryk/ReutersRepresentative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota visited the Bay of Pigs museum in Miami on Monday.

All of the candidates in the Republican nomination contest are sure to step up their pace in September, as the clock starts seriously ticking down toward the real voting in Iowa and New Hampshire, which will begin early next year.

By the end of the month, the field of candidates — which has been in flux for most of 2011 — is almost certain to be set for good. And another month of polling could give a more realistic picture of who leads that pack.

With that in mind, here are six things to watch for in September.

1. Debates. For political junkies, September is shaping up to be a wonderful month. The Republican candidates are scheduled to face off in three major debates in September, each one broadcast live on a different television network.

The first will take place on Sept. 7 at the Ronald Reagan Library in Southern California. The debate, co-sponsored by MSNBC and Politico, has become a new tradition in the Republican race.

Five days later, the candidates will cross the country to Tampa, Fla., for a debate hosted by CNN and the Tea Party Express, a group based in California that supports the Tea Party movement. The following week, the candidates will gather again for another debate, this time in Orlando, sponsored by the Florida Republican Party and Fox News.

For the candidates, the string of debates presents a series of logistical headaches and potential land mines. The need to prepare for the debates robs the campaigns of valuable fund-raising time. The travel schedule for the month is dictated by the location of the debates — none of which are in the early voting states.

And they offer three high-profile opportunities for gaffes that could stall momentum or even end a campaign.

But the face-offs also offer the chance for a breakout moment for candidates like Jon M. Huntsman Jr., whose lackluster performance in the polls suggests that his campaign needs to find a way to generate buzz. The debates will also offer Rick Perry, the governor of Texas, a chance to make a first, second, and third-impression in quick succession.

And they will present an interesting test for a candidate like Mitt Romney, whose play-it-safe approach to the campaign has put a high premium on staying above the fray.

2. Sarah Palin. September could be the month that the former Alaska governor finally lets the rest of us in on her secret. Will she run for the Republican nomination? Or have her bus tour and other public flirtations with a run been a big game?

The guessing continues on Sept. 3, when Ms. Palin is scheduled to headline a Tea Party rally in — where else? — Des Moines. The event was originally scheduled to be at a smaller venue, but was moved last week to accommodate a bigger crowd.

That prompted some speculation that she might use the event to announce her plans. But those who spend all their time speculating about her intentions think that Ms. Palin probably will wait until later in September, in part to avoid the pressure to take part in the debates next month.

If Ms. Palin announces after the third debate on Sept. 22, she might upstage the rest of the field and avoid a month of scrutiny. Or, if she decides against a run, waiting until the end of September gives her another month of influence while she keeps the political establishment watching her every move.

Either way, it’s likely to be another month of “will she or won’t she?” when it comes to Sarah Palin.

3. Dueling Economic Messages. All of the leading Republican candidates have decided to stake their candidacies on a stark contrast with Mr. Obama’s economic policies. The president will give them an even bigger target with what is being billed as a major jobs speech just after Labor Day.

Mr. Romney, in particular, is losing no time in drawing that contrast. He, too, has scheduled a speech for next week. Aides say he will unveil his job-creation ideas during a speech on Sept. 6, the Tuesday after Labor Day. (Mr. Huntsman is planning to unveil a plan of his own a week earlier, on Wednesday, in New Hampshire.)

It’s still unclear exactly when Mr. Obama will give his speech. Jay Carney, the White House press secretary, said on Monday that the exact date is still being finalized. But he confirmed the speech would be next week sometime.

No matter what day the White House chooses, the president’s speech and Mr. Romney’s will be viewed as two directly competing visions for how to deal with the still struggling economy. And the contrasts will no doubt become fodder for the midweek debate in California and the others later in September.

4. Fund-raising. Mr. Romney was the unquestioned leader at the end of the second quarter of fund-raising. The third quarter will come to a close at the end of September, and the results will be extremely helpful in predicting who will be able to go the distance during the rest of the year.

Ms. Bachmann entered the race just before the end of the second quarter, making it a poor test of her real ability to raise campaign cash. The results at the end of September should provide a much better window into her finances.

Mr. Perry is expected to be a prolific fund-raiser, as he has been in Texas. But his state finance operation was legally allowed to solicit contributions of an unlimited amount — making it comparably easy to raise huge sums from his most committed and wealthy supporters.

As a federal candidate, his donors are severely limited in how much they can give. So the third-quarter finance report will be a good indication of how well Mr. Perry has made the transition from a state fund-raiser to a national one.

And Ron Paul, whose candidacy appears more organized than it was four years ago, could continue to post impressive numbers — a feat that would probably ensure that he can once again afford to campaign all the way to the convention next summer.

5. Florida. In part because of the location of the second two debates, many of the candidates are expected to focus more than usual on Florida in September. Expect several road trips by the leading candidates before and after their appearances in Tampa and Orlando.

But the focus on the Sunshine State is not merely the result of the debate locations. Florida’s primary will probably be critical to determining the winner of the Republican nomination, and all of the candidates are aware of the implications.

In 2008, Mr. Romney and John McCain battled fiercely in Florida after emerging as the two leading candidates from the early states. Their battle continued a bit longer, but Mr. McCain’s victory in Florida all but sealed his win.

This time, the state may play an even more critical role. Florida officials are talking about flouting a Republican party prohibition against going before March 6 by moving their primary to late January.

If that happens, the state — with its huge population and critical role as the ultimate swing state in the general election — could be the determinative primary battle once again. Mr. Huntsman views the state as such a critical one that he has established his campaign headquarters there. Mrs. Bachmann spent Monday in Miami and Naples.

6. Polling. For months, Mr. Romney has topped most surveys as the leading Republican contender in the race. But his position there has always seemed somewhat tenuous, in part because of an assessment that Republicans were dissatisfied with the choices before them.

For a time, polls in Iowa showed Mrs. Bachmann surging to the lead in that state. Now, Mr. Perry has captured the top spot nationally in some surveys as voters begin to take a look at him and his record.

Pollsters — especially my colleagues here at The New York Times — will caution that it is still early, and that any survey is merely a snapshot that is not likely to serve as a very good prediction of the results once voting gets under way.

But as the campaign enters the fall, the surveys become an increasingly important validation for campaigns as they raise money and try to convince activists to support their growing logistical operations.

The debates should help give the polling a bit more validity as more people around the country get an up-close look at the candidates. But the late entry — if it happens — of Ms. Palin could once again shake up the standings.

Will Mr. Romney remain near the top as people see more of him? Will Mr. Perry’s surge quickly fade? Will Mr. Huntsman find a way to raise his single-digit numbers? Will Mr. Paul find a way to make his libertarian views seem more mainstream? Will Mrs. Bachmann be able to build support around the country?

Stay tuned. September is just around the corner.

Bachmann Takes Her Tea Party to Florida

By Trip Gabriel
Though she is popular with the Tea Party movement, Representative Michele Bachmann went with Cuban coffee while campaigning in Miami on Monday.Hans Deryk/ReutersThough she is popular with the Tea Party movement, Representative Michele Bachmann went with Cuban coffee while campaigning in Miami on Monday.

MIAMI — In her nearly five years in Congress, and just over two months as a declared presidential candidate, Representative Michele Bachmann has demonstrated time and again that she knows how to fire up the base. Her four-day, six-city swing through Florida has been no exception, as Mrs. Bachman, a Minnesota Republican, addressed stalwart Republican groups of retirees, Cuban-Americans and Tea Party members, who repeatedly answered her speeches with lusty cheers.

Mrs. Bachmann never mentioned by name her chief rivals for the most conservative wing of the party — Gov. Rick Perry and Representative Ron Paul, both of Texas — but she took pains to be sure that neither could claim purer credentials as an anti-Washington, small-government crusader.

“I have been at the tip of the spear,’’ she said of her defiance of Republican House leaders to the deal to raise the debt ceiling this summer. “I’m not the favorite one on the cocktail circuit, to put it mildly.’’

Her Florida tour began Friday at a sub shop in Jacksonville Beach, chosen because its owner had attracted attention last year for a sign in the window boasting: “Bible thumpin’, gun totin’ capitalist pig owns this joint.”

It ended Monday in Miami with a courtship of Cuban-American voters. After visiting a museum of the Bay of Pigs invasion, Mrs. Bachmann promised at a restaurant in Little Havana to campaign to elect 13 more Republican senators for a filibuster-proof majority. “I’m thinking on the order of a Marco Rubio,’’ she said, referring to the first-term senator from Florida elected with Tea Party support. Read more…

Congress Returns for Another Round on Jobs, Spending

By Jennifer Steinhauer

So, when we last met on the Hill, Republicans were focused on undoing a slew of federal regulations, many of them created by the Obama administration, as the foundation of their job creation strategy,  while the White House was pushing for the extension of a payroll tax cut and tax credits for employers. The two sides were also fighting over how best to reduce the deficit.

Get ready for Round 2.

Even as the 12 members of a bipartisan Congressional committee are talking quietly behind the scenes about how to get started on its deficit reduction recommendations, Republicans and Democrats appear poised to pursue fairly polarized economic agendas.

On Monday, presaging the return of Congress next week, Representative Eric Cantor, the House majority leader, released some details of the “regulatory relief agenda” that House Republicans will pursue over the coming months.

Among the targets in their regulation-cutting cross hairs are environmental protection regulations — they want to beat back impending readjustments of the current ozone standards and regulations on coal ash — and some components of the Obama health care law, which the House voted earlier this year to repeal. Republicans are also preparing to take on the National Labor Relations Board for injecting itself into a labor dispute involving the Boeing Company in South Carolina. Read more…

Arizona’s New Post-Partisan: Charles Barkleyism

By Marc Lacey

Some people show their discontent with the two main political parties by registering as independents. But in Arizona, disgruntled voters go further than that.

Ken Bennett, the Arizona secretary of state, noted in a recent blog post some of the bizarre parties to which Arizonans have claimed allegiance.

There is the Disaffected Party, and the Apathatarians. There is the Flying Spaghetti Monster Party, and the Zombie Hunters of America Party.

Officially, Mr. Bennett noted, there are only five parties recognized by the state, the Democratic, Republican, Libertarian, Green and Americans Elect Parties. Of the 3.2 million registered voters in the state, 2.1 million belong to one of those. But that leaves 1.1 million others, some of whom register as independents and others of whom use their imaginations to show just how free-spirited they are. Read more…