The Pac-12 asked those of us who regularly cover the conference to submit our picks for the race this season, and the collective results will be announced at its media day on Friday in San Francisco.
My predictions are below.
Please post your picks on the comment thread or shoot them to me via email (pascoe@tucson.com) or Twitter (@brucepascoe) and we'll score how we all did in March. (David Garratt and Marx Madness had the best records last season).
Here's my picks and a capsule look at each team (departing players ran out of eligibility unless noted otherwise):
1. Oregon
Gone: F Elgin Cook, F Dwayne Benjamin.
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Key newcomers: F Kavell Bigby-Williams (juco transfer), G Payton Pritchard (freshman), F Keith Smith (freshman), F M.J. Cage (freshman; former UA target)
Why this pick: Provided Dillon Brooks’s mysterious foot injury doesn't cost him significant time, the Ducks have an obscene amount of veteran talent that should make them a Final Four contender. Not only are four starters back, but point guard Dylan Ennis was approved for a sixth year of eligibility, Bigby-Williams gives the Ducks a third frightening shot-blocker on top of Chris Boucher and Jordan Bell, and Payton Pritchard is one of the best point guards in Oregon high school history. The only trouble this team could have is dealing with unprecedented expectations.
2. Arizona
Gone: F Ryan Anderson, C Kaleb Tarczewski, G Gabe York, F Mark Tollefsen.
Key newcomers: F Lauri Markkanen (freshman), G Rawle Alkins (freshman), G Kobi Simmons (freshman), F Keanu Pinder (juco transfer).
Why this pick: Regardless of Trier’s eligibility situation -- there's still radio silence from UA on the matter, even over whether he'll attend Pac-12 media day as planned – the Wildcats probably have more talent, versatility and upside than the bunch that skidded out of the NCAA tournament’s first round last season. But they have to settle on a point guard, sort out a number of roles and find some leadership on a team with only three veterans in Parker Jackson-Cartwright, Dusan Ristic and Kadeem Allen.
3. UCLA
Gone: F Jonah Bolden (early pro departure), F Tony Parker
Key newcomers: G Lonzo Ball (freshman), F T.J. Leaf (freshman, former UA commit), F Ike Anigbogu (freshman)
Why this pick: Steve Alford won’t need his son, Bryce, to do it all in the backcourt again: Lonzo Ball may be as impactful as any of the Pac-12’s talented freshmen, with size and uncanny court vision that should make him the instant point guard. A strong returning group, plus the addition of skilled forward T.J. Leaf, suggests this group could at least flip-flop that eye-opening 6-12 conference mark of last season.
4. Colorado
Gone: F Josh Scott, F Tre’Shaun Fletcher (transferred to Toledo), G Xavier Talton
Key newcomers: G Derrick White (CU-Colorado Springs transfer), F Lucas Siewert (freshman), C Dallas Walton (freshman).
Why this pick: With the departure of low-post mainstay Scott, the emphasis shifts to the perimeter for the Buffs. But that doesn’t mean they’ll be any worse off: This team is loaded with experience, shooting and athleticism, returning the vastly improved George King on the wing, rugged defender/rebounder Wesley Gordon inside and Xavier Johnson back to the wing after missing last season with an Achilles tendon injury. Division II scoring whiz Derrick White has shown signs he’ll be a big contributor on this level, too.
5. Stanford
Gone: F Rosco Allen (early pro departure)
Key newcomers: F Kodye Pugh (freshman), F Trevor Stanback (freshman)
Why this pick: Could be a gamble to pick Cardinal this high, but Stanford has nearly everybody back and injuries were at least part of the reason it didn’t do well in recent seasons. Even without Rosco Allen, the frontcourt should be strong if Reid Travis can stay healthy. The key is whether new coach Jerod Haase can get buy-in from a group of returning veterans who spent years under Johnny Dawkins.
6. Cal
Gone: F Jaylen Brown (early pro departure), G Tyrone Wallace, G Jordan Mathews (transferred to Gonzaga).
Key newcomers: G Charlie Moore (freshman), F Roman Davis (freshman).
Why this pick: The Bears may have possibly the league’s best 1-2 inside-outside punch in Rabb and Jabari Bird, plus a pair of 7-footers inside and an underrated point guard in Sam Singer, but depth is otherwise thin. The transfer of Mathews, one of the Pac-12’s best three-point shooters, was both curious and harmful for the Bears.
7. Utah
Gone: C Jakob Poeltl (early pro departure), F Jordan Loveridge, F Chris Reyes (transfer), F Brekkot Chapman (transferred to Weber State), G Brandon Taylor, F Dakari Tucker
Key newcomers: F David Collette (Utah State transfer), F Tyler Rawson (juco transfer), C Jakub Jokl (freshman), G Sedrick Barefield (SMU transfer), G Parker Van Dyke (LDS mission returnee)
Why this pick: The Utes are back to the kind of turnover they had early in Larry Krystkowiak’s tenure, but the talent is at a lot higher level. Jakub won’t likely be ready to replace Jakob right away but there’s enough around returning cornerstones Lorenzo Bonam and Kyle Kuzma that the Utes could be able to beat anybody in a given game, if not stay in the thick of the race.
8. USC
Gone: G Julian Jacobs (early pro departure), F Nikola Jovanovich (early pro departure), G Katin Reinhardt (transferred to Marquette)
Key newcomers: G Shaqquan Aaron (Louisville transfer), G Jonah Mathews (freshman), G De’Anthony Melton (freshman), F Nick Rakocevic (freshman)
Why this pick: Just when Andy Enfield appeared to have USC turned around, he suffered the weirdest set of early losses in the conference. Jacobs and Jovanovich declared for an NBA Draft that had no interest in them and Reinhardt took off for a third college despite having played the second-most minutes on the Trojans last season. Still, point guard Jordan McLaughlin has enough returning help around him, including guard Elijah Stewart and stretch-four Bennie Boatwright, that the Trojans will still be competitive in the Pac-12.
9. Oregon State
Gone: G Gary Payton II, G Langston Morris-Walker, F Olaf Schaftenaar, G Derrick Bruce (transferred to junior college)
Key newcomers: G Ronnie Stacy (juco transfer), G JaQuori McLaughlin (freshman; former UA target), F Keondre Dew (juco transfer)
Why this pick: The Beavers can actually finish a lot higher if their young talent keeps maturing quickly. Sophomores Stephen Thompson, Tres Tinkle and Drew Eubanks showed loads of promise last season and Tinkle is on the verge of full clearance after suffering a foot injury last season. Plus, the Beavers have a lot of depth up front while former UA target McLaughlin was Washington’s Mr. Basketball last season. But there's no doubt do-everything GP II will be sorely missed.
10. Washington
Gone: G Andrew Andrews, G Dejounte Murray (early pro departure), F Marquese Chriss (early pro departure)
Key newcomers: G Markelle Fultz (freshman), G Bitumba “Harold” Baruti (freshman), G Carlos Johnson (freshman), F Sam Timmons (freshman), F Matthew Atewe (Auburn transfer).
Why this pick: The revolving door of high-level talent continues in Seattle, with Murray and Chriss gone after a year and Fultz coming in to probably be the latest one-and-done Husky. Fultz should be the Huskies’ best player instantly, with unusual skills, vision, athleticism and size for a point guard. The question is whether UW has enough around him, particularly in its physical but largely unproven frontcourt players.
11. ASU
Gone: G Gerry Blakes, F Willie Atwood, C Eric Jacobsen, F Savon Goodman (transferred to LaSalle), G Andre Spight (transferred to Northern Colorado).
Key newcomers: F Sam Cunliffe (freshman), G Torian Graham (Buffalo transfer), G Shannon Evans (Buffalo transfer), F Romello White (freshman), C Jethro Tshisumpa (freshman).
Why this pick: The multi-skilled Cunliffe leads Bobby Hurley’s effort to boost the talent level in Tempe but the Sun Devils still aren’t likely to be fully competitive in yet another brutal non-conference swing – or the Pac-12.
12. WSU
Gone: G Que Johnson (Western Kentucky transfer), C Valentine Izundu (SDSU transfer).
Key newcomers: G Malachi Flynn (freshman), G Jamar Ergas (freshman), G Milan Acquaah (freshman), F Jeff Pollard (freshman).
Why this pick: Johnson and Izundu bailed from a 1-17 team, suggesting Josh Hawkinson could get even lonelier in Pullman. But Ernie Kent went out and filled holes, then expressed excitement about guys such as Flynn and Acquaah, saying he's confident that the Cougars will play with a greater tempo and rhythm this time. Maybe they'll even look more like Kent's vintage Oregon teams, in style at least.