Yesterday evening, The White House announced that January 27 would be the date of the State of the Union.
(it's also the day of the Apple Table tnnouncement, so that should be fun).
The announcement comes as healthcare reform looks increasingly shakey (we'll see what happens tonight in Massachusetts), and a general downdraft in Obama's poll numbers.
It's time for The President to reverse the momentum.
The news also coincides with last night's announcement that the House will probably just vote on the Senate bill directly, a process referred to by wonks as "ping-pong."
So jere's how Nate Silver reads the tea leaves. The basic idea is that if The White House can get a quick momentum break their way, the President's agenda needn't be completely lost going forward.
1) President Obama can deliver a home-run speech when he needs to and will deliver a home-run speech on January 27th that features a sharp pivot toward more populist economic policies, such as a bank tax, financial regulation, and a jobs bill.
(2) The White House already got the 60th vote that was going to be the most difficult to get: Ben Nelson's to push them past the finish line on health care. On most other issues, they may not have had 59 votes anyway. In other cases still, the White House will be more amenable to using reconciliation, which was designed for precisely the sort of fiscal measures they will be considering in the spring and summer. Scott Brown's vote may not be in play in the immediate term, but could be in the medium term, essentially leaving the Democrats in the same position they were before Arlen Specter defected. And the Democrats' shaky 60-seat supermajority was not doing them much good as far as optics and public perception went.
(3) The White House's tone will change to reflect the new math. It will be less even-tempered with the Republicans in Congress, while at the same time being more identifiably populist to moderate and independent swing voters. It will focus almost exclusively on things that poll at 50%+ or that are necessary to keep the country running. This may include some initiatives where they don't expect to receive Republican votes; such measures will be pushed to the floor quickly, forcing Republicans to cast a roll call vote to filibuster them rather than making disingenuous objections to the press.
(4) Some grievances that House members may have with the Senate's health care bill can be resolved through reconciliation in the Senate. The long time-frame before implementation provides a window of several years for this to be accomplished.
(5) Although there has been considerable damage extracted from the debate over health care, there is reason to believe that most of it is in the past. The health care bill itself has not become any more unpopular than when the Senate passed it in November. The party will not do itself any favors by having passed a health care bill through both chambers, only to see it implode.
(6) Near-term political fallout from passing health care may be mitigated somewhat by Republican giddiness over Scott Brown's victory and coverage of the SOTU.
Read the rest at FiveThirtyEight.com -- >
