Miami Dolphins (6-3) at Denver Broncos (3-6), Sunday, 2:05 p.m. MST, Empower Field at Mile High, CBS, 850 AM, 94.1 FM, 103.5 FM
3 Things to watch
1. A turning point. Should the Broncos win, they’ll snap Miami’s five-game winning streak and move to four wins heading into a tough two-week stretch against New Orleans and Kansas City. Attaining .500 on the year would be in the realm of possibility, however difficult. But a defeat to Miami, a 3.5-point road favorite, would all but seal the certainty of a fourth straight losing season. Will red-hot rookie Tua Tagovailoa add to Denver’s 2020 misery, especially if Drew Lock can’t play due to a rib injury?
2. Tua Time. Speaking of Tagovailoa, the quarterback and fifth overall pick this year is looking to become the first rookie quarterback to win his first four starts since the Steelers’ Ben Roethlisberger in 2004. Tagovailoa didn’t throw an interception over the past three weeks, so it will be up to Justin Simmons, Bryce Callahan and the Broncos secondary to force the issue and put a dent in Tagovailoa’s confidence via his first career pick(s).
3. Jerry Jeudy takeover? After posting his first career 100-yard game in Week 9 in Atlanta, and then leading the Broncos again with four catches for 68 yards last week in Las Vegas, the rookie wideout’s priming to take over a game and single-handedly lift Denver to victory. Will that be this Sunday, against a Dolphins secondary that ranks 19th at 243.8 passing yards allowed per game? Jeudy has 34 catches for 552 yards this year, fourth among first-year wideouts, and is one of seven NFL players to start their career with four consecutive games with 50-plus receiving yards.
Who has the edge?
When the Dolphins run
There’s been lots of turnover in the Miami backfield with injuries to veterans Matt Breida and Myles Gaskin, plus the waiving of Jordan Howard this week. But undrafted rookie Salvon Ahmed is picking up the slack, and had 85 yards on 21 carries in his first career start last week. Meanwhile, the Denver run defense was gashed for 203 yards by the Raiders.
Edge: Dolphins
When the Dolphins pass
Denver ranks 14th in pass defense at 231.2 yards per game, while the Miami aerial attack hasn’t been anything to write home about either, ranking 26th at 219.4 passing yards per game. A.J. Bouye and the Broncos must put an emphasis on limiting DeVante Parker, Miami’s top wideout.
Edge: Even
When the Broncos run
The Denver running game was anemic last Sunday in Las Vegas, with Melvin Gordon held to 46 yards on 11 carries and Phillip Lindsay to a paltry two yards on four carries. The Broncos have to get the running game going and feed Lindsay more to take pressure off the quarterback against Miami’s 22nd-ranked run defense.
Edge: Even
When the Broncos pass
In addition to Jeudy, Tim Patrick’s been a reliable weapon and is second on the team behind the rookie with 444 receiving yards. Tight end Noah Fant (questionable due to rib injury) needs to be more of the consistent force that the Broncos imagined in his second year, while Denver needs better protection and better quarterbacking (whether by Lock, or by backup Brett Rypien if Lock can’t play).
Edge: Broncos
Special teams
Miami has been consistent on special teams this year, and kicker Jason Sanders has been as good as Denver’s Brandon McManus, as both have missed just one field goal. The Broncos units beyond McManus and punter Sam Martin, however, have been a disaster waiting to happen.
Edge: Dolphins
Post predictions
Ryan O’Halloran, beat writer: Dolphins 24, Broncos 20
The Broncos actually have a productive first half (an actual lead!), but Miami scores 14 fourth-quarter points to extend Denver’s misery.
Kyle Newman, beat writer: Dolphins 28, Broncos 17
The Broncos have another slow start and the Dolphins come out ready to play, and the result is a two-score halftime deficit that Denver can’t erase thanks to a couple Miami interceptions in the second half.
Mark Kiszla, columnist: Dolphins 27, Broncos 20
In Tua Tagovailoa, Miami appears to have found itself a young franchise QB. How ’bout Denver? Well, kinda. Sorta. Maybe.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Dolphins 25, Broncos 23
Everything you wanted the Broncos to be this fall, Miami’s become. Never mind Tua: Miami ranks among the NFL’s top 6 in turnovers forced per drive (No. 6), fumbles forced per drive (No. 5) and points allowed per drive (No. 6). For a Broncos offense that’s already beat up and pressing, that’s … not good.
