DENVER — There are dire predictions making the rounds saying the Denver metro area could see massive snow totals this weekend. But could that really happen? It’s time to separate the hype from the forecast.
The Pinpoint Weather team will be updating this story as new data come in. There will be a better idea on what to expect for the weekend by Thursday night.
It will be wet this weekend, for sure
A slow-moving storm system will arrive on Friday and last through Monday.
It will bring a lot of moisture with it. We’re forecasting snow. How much depends on when it gets cold enough to turn to all snow.
What the timeline looks like
As of Thursday evening, the forecast calls for rain showers and storms to develop in metro Denver on Friday afternoon. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain and gusty winds. The eastern Plains could be dealing with damaging wind and large hail.
The rain will turn to snow late Friday into early Saturday.
The snow continues in metro Denver on Saturday and Sunday. It looks like it should end by midday Monday.
Snow began falling in the mountains on Thursday night and will last through the weekend. Winter storm warnings are up for the mountains, with most locations getting at least 2 feet in some of the higher mountain locations.
Snow total forecast
If there’s a rain/snow mix, expect more than 1 inch of rain and snow accumulation ranging from 4-6 inches in Denver with up to 8 inches south of the city and more than 1 foot in the foothills.
The Pinpoint Weather team believes metro Denver could see 6-12 inches of snow by the time the storm moves out of the region later on Sunday. We’re looking at 4-8 inches on Saturday and another 2-4 inches on Sunday. Totals could be even slightly higher in the city.
Farther south toward Castle Rock and the Palmer Divide, more snow is forecast because it will begin to fall earlier. It’s possible places such as Castle Rock could get 20 inches before it’s over.
That one intense-looking forecast model
Last weekend, the European forecast model — one of several used in forecasting — said the Denver metro area could be seeing 40 inches of snow or more.
But that model was based on all the moisture coming in as snow, and the newer editions of the model have backed off those immense totals.
So, that map you might see being shared on Facebook with huge totals of 40 inches or more? It’s old, and those totals are not in the forecast.
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