Allianz National Football League Division Three: Fermanagh v Armagh (tomorrow, 2pm, Brewster Park)
JUDGEMENT will arrive two months to the day, but for Fermanagh and Armagh there is the argument that there is as much weight carried by tomorrow’s encounter as their impending Championship meeting.
The Ulster rivals will be back in a hopefully sunnier Brewster Park on May 19 and while there is time for alterations between now and then, the nature of their current situation means we’re likely to see something resembling their best hands a bit early.
The pressure does sit on Fermanagh in terms of absolutely needing a result. Their loss to Westmeath last weekend leaves them with no more margin for error and given that their final day involves a trip to a Longford side that could still be in the race, theirs is no easy finish.
They could well win one of the two games and still not go up, such is the shape of the race.
One win from their final two will suffice for Armagh, and they spend their last day with Wexford, who will already be relegated if they lose in Celtic Park tomorrow.
The Orchard have gotten through most of the legwork and it’s hard to see them breaking down from here. But having missed out in bitter fashion last year, they would much rather have it sewn up than to leave anything to chance.
The last time 10 points wasn’t enough to win you promotion out of Division Three was 2010. Wexford reached the magic figure but lost out on points difference to Antrim and Sligo.
The second portion of the league was always going to be the test for Fermanagh. That they took eight points from their first four games was no real surprise, particularly on the back of their McKenna Cup showings.
Last weekend was a blow, not least in the manner of the defeat by Westmeath. They appeared in control for much of it and still led heading into stoppage time, but the loss of Cian McManus to a second booking left them swimming against the tide for too long.
There is a definite pattern emerging in Rory Gallagher’s selections, with Seamus Quigley being preferred over the brother Sean, and Conall Jones a seemingly permanent fixture now at full-forward. Tomás Corrigan has only appeared off the bench over the last fortnight as he works his way back in.
He did change goalkeepers last weekend, going back to Thomas Treacy having experimented with long-serving forward Pat Cadden between the sticks.
Armagh look certain to be forced into changes after their win over Derry proved costly. Ethan Rafferty, who has been having a superb season, suffered a knee injury, while Paul Hughes damaged ankle ligaments and Joe McElroy pulled his hamstring.
They may have Gavin McParland back for the first time this season and with Andy Murnin and Rory Grugan both performing well, they will be confident their attack can unpick the mass Erne defence.
After going away from that strength last year, they’ve set themselves up to become hard to beat again this season but have been worried by the concession of six goals, albeit half of them in one game against Derry.
This is unlikely to have much aesthetic appeal for those who like their football to be pure. For the rest of us, it promises to be tense, tight and intriguing to the last.
If Fermanagh can get Eoin Donnelly – who should be fit again after going off at half-time in Mullingar – and Ryan Jones enough involved, they may well keep themselves in contention.
