Holliday: NC State, Duke and bowl competition

By Bob Holliday, Columnist

NC State and Duke have not met on the football field since 2013, but the two schools could wind up competing in December - for one of the ACC's coveted Tier One bowl bids. After NC State's shocking loss to Wake Forest and Duke's expected win over North Carolina, the Blue Devils actually own the better record today, 7-3 vs. 6-3. Duke must visit ACC front-runner Clemson Saturday, while NC State makes a trip to conference doormat Louisville. So next week's ledger may look slightly different. But if Duke then finishes with a win over Wake in Wallace Wade, NC State would have to beat both UNC and ECU (which should happen, but not guaranteed after the disaster against the Deacons) in order to post a better final record. And even if NC State finishes 9-3 to Duke's 8-4, ACC procedures permit bowls to invite the team with the lesser record as long as that team is within one game of the team with the better record.

After the games of Week 11, Clemson remains in the running for a berth in the College Football Playoffs. However, for a number of reasons, the odds of an ACC team getting invited to a New Year's Six Bowl appear slim. That means the Camping World Bowl in Orlando and the four Tier One Bowls are the best possible landing places for Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College, Virginia, NC State, and Duke. There is a chance Georgia Tech could join this cluster as well. We're assuming here that Notre Dame either makes the CFP or earns a New Year's Six Bowl bid. Should the Irish fall back into the ACC's Tier One Bowl battle, that increases the competition exponentially.

Clearly, there are more Tier One-worthy teams than Tier One Bowls. So that means over the next three weeks, on field performance and bowl politicking will be at a premium for those schools who hope to make post-season trips to Orlando, Charlotte, Jacksonville/Nashville, El Paso, and New York City. Understand, an ACC team will get a bid to either Jacksonville or Nashville but not both. The Gator Bowl and Music City Bowl take turns inviting an ACC representative.

NC State Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda

NC State is part of the reason the Tier One Bowl scene has become so scrambled. The Wolfpack was ranked 14th in last week's CFP standings. Had State run the table, a 10-2 record might well have pushed the Pack high enough in the rankings to land a New Year's Six Bowl. The loss to Wake Forest removed that possibility.

NC State did not play its usual game on Senior Night in Carter-Finley Stadium. State started with a three and out. Then, after recovering a Deacon fumble at the Wake 12-yard line, the Wolfpack again went three and out, settling for a field goal. NC State never got any kind of running game going, even against one of the ACC's three worst defenses against the rush. Wake's other ACC opponents averaged 252 yards on the ground against the Deacs. NC State gained just 47.

ESPN game analysts Matt and Tim Hasselbeck, former NFL quarterbacks both, noticed NC State center Garrett Bradbury was wearing a protective sleeve on his hand and that it seemed to affect the spin and accuracy of his snaps. Ryan Finley, the brothers observed, had to reach for some snaps, and had to rotate the ball to put the laces in the right spot on other snaps. This, the analysts observed, cost the Pack precious time at the start of some plays, and definitely impacted the rhythm of the NC State offense. Also, the Pack continues to struggle with injuries on the offensive line and in the secondary. And it's quite possible the emotion of Senior Night left the team without its usual early game focus. Whatever, NC State's offense did not start the game with the unsinkable efficiency we saw against Virginia, Boston College, and Florida State. In a game where the Wolfpack needed to build a big early lead, NC State's margin never got bigger than ten points. And that allowed a 4-5 team playing its third string quarterback to settle in.

Wake's Jamie Newman appeared to get more comfortable as the game went along. His team didn't put him in a three or four touchdown deficit requiring him to throw on every down. By staying within striking distance, Wake could use its good running game to balance the offense. Matt Colburn, Cade Carney, and Newman combined for 138 yards on the ground. And that offensive diversity gave Newman, a first-time starter at quarterback, time and space to ease his way into throwing the football. And by the fourth quarter, Newman was finding Greg Dortch, Alex Bachman, and especially Sage Surratt with great regularity.

Despite its failure to put the game away early, NC State still appeared to be in good shape in the fourth quarter, leading 23-13 with a fourth and three at the Wake Forest 39. Keep that drive going and the Wolfpack probably wins the game. I like Dave Doeren's call to go for the first down. What I didn't like was the decision to throw the long fade instead of a much shorter pass. Finley's ball was good - it probably should have been caught. But, percentages! You need three yards; are you more likely to get them on a high arching pass 32 yards down field that is well-covered, or on some kind of quick pattern five or ten yards away? The fade failed and Wake Forest took custody of the football in good field position. The Deacons quickly scored to cut the lead to three.

NC State mounted another good drive that reached the Wake Forest 27 before running out of juice. Here the Wolfpack's inability to run was a killer. State looked for yards on the ground, not once, but twice, losing two yards each time. On third and 14, Finley hit Jakobi Meyers for 11 yards. But that meant Finley still needed to complete one more pass on fourth down, and he couldn't do it; though it was the right call to go for the first down and try to run the clock down rather than kick. A field goal would have given State just a six point lead. And Wake quickly picked up seven, with help from an NC State blitz on second and ten at the Wolfpack 32. The gamble backfired as Newman found tight end Jack Freudenthal all alone for the game winning score.

Wake Forest is better than State's three remaining opponents. The Pack can still get a rare ten win campaign if it runs the table in the regular season and then wins its bowl game. However, the bowl options are now much more jumbled.

Duke on the rebound

Back-to-back losses against Virginia and Pitt put Duke's very bowl eligibility in jeopardy. But the Blue Devils have now put themselves squarely in the mix for Tier One Bowl consideration with wins over Miami and UNC.

Duke's win at Miami turned some heads, but a loss to North Carolina would likely have ended any possibility of a Tier One Bowl for the Blue Devils. And UNC's offense was good enough to spring a surprise-the Tar Heels gained 536 yards against a Duke defense missing the injured Joe Giles-Harris. Duke lost yet one more starter, safety Dylan Singleton, to injury during the game. The Blue Devils though, ultimately overcame both the adversity and UNC's potent offense. Daniel Jones' 547 yards of total offense, conquered all.

Jones completed 31 passes for 361 yards. He threw long. He threw short. He spread the ball around - to nine different receivers. But it wasn't Jones' arm that won the game. It was his feet.

From the beginning, Jones has demonstrated a somewhat surprising ability to run the football. Whether scrambling out of the pocket on an aborted pass play, or taking the football back and tucking it under his arm on the zone read, DJ has become one of the ACC's best on third down. We have seen Jones show enough quickness to move the chains time and time again. But until Saturday we had not seen - how should I say this - breakaway speed? With 35 seconds left in the first half of a 28-28 football game, the 6'5'' Jones found a crease, bolted through it, and outran every UNC defender to the goal line. 35-28. Then, late in the third quarter, after both defenses had stepped up their play, Jones struck again. This time Jones broke off an even longer run, and dared Carolina to catch him from behind. At first it appeared the Duke QB had run 70 yards for a touchdown. After replay review, DJ's breakaway was downsized to 68 yards. Quentin Harris then gave Jones a breather, and finished the three play 78-yard drive with a two yard touchdown run. 42-28.

Duke's second half defense certainly helped keep the Victory Bell in Durham. UNC started drives at the 43, 24, and the Duke 39. UNC's defense had created this outstanding field position by blocking a field goal and then forcing turnovers on back to back possessions. But in those three sudden change situations, the Tar Heel offense did not get a single first down. UNC in fact, punted on its first five possessions in the third and fourth quarters. Eventually the Tar Heels did mount a late game challenge, getting to within seven at 42-35, but it was too little too late.

Duke's injury-riddled defense faces a tall order this Saturday night trying to contain Travis Etienne and Trevor Lawrence. Duke's offensive line has an even bigger challenge, trying to protect its quarterback against the Tigers NFL-like front four. Jones will certainly have to choose carefully when he has to decide whether to scramble or throw the ball away. But if Duke can get through 60 minutes at Clemson without sustaining any additional injuries, the Blue Devils should have enough firepower to outscore Wake Forest on the final Saturday of November. And that would put Duke in a good spot come Selection Sunday.

As for the Tar Heels...

Here's really all you need to know about UNC's play Saturday. The Tar Heels had the ball and momentum in the final 90 seconds of the first half. They appeared to get a first down near midfield on a third down pass from Nathan Elliott to Dyami Brown. But the big gain was nullified by an unnecessary roughness penalty. So instead of having a first down near the 50, the Heels faced a third and 12 at their own 18. Larry Fedora called a swing pass, thinking his receiver could get the first down and get out of bounds to keep the drive alive. But Elliott could not connect with his target no more than ten yards away in the UNC backfield. The incomplete pass stopped the clock. UNC punted with 1:02 left in the half. Some 30 seconds later, Jones gave Duke the lead. For good. This is the North Carolina football season in microcosm.

These things keep happening to North Carolina. And so even though the Tar Heels have beaten Coastal front runner Pitt, and played close games against Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Virginia, Georgia Tech, and Duke, they now sit 1-8. The Tar Heels should win against Western Carolina. Beyond that, it's a matter of pride. Can this team summon the wherewithal to compete against NC State on Thanksgiving Saturday, an NC State team that is superior in most respects? The history of this season suggests the Tar Heels cannot win that game. But it sure would muddy the bowl picture even more if they could.