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Is it finally dawning on the nation that lockdown will make them poorer?

The country was lulled into a false sense of security that has now started to evaporate

A 30pc rise in the cost of London’s congestion charge. A relentless rise in the cost of food as the iron laws of supply and demand kick in. A sudden wave of redundancies, followed by pay freezes, and tax rises to pay for the all the bail-outs. Over the next couple of months, the real cost of the Covid-19 epidemic is about to hit home. So far, the public have been remarkably stoic in the face of lockdown. But as the bill comes due that will start to change – and possibly very quickly. 

Two months into this crisis, most people have not suffered very much, at least financially. So far, only 23pc of us say our finances have been severely impacted, compared with 21pc in the United Sates and 15pc in Germany. There are two reasons for that. The Chancellor’s extraordinarily ambitious schemes for supporting companies and workers have so far shielded most people from what is happening, while minor concessions like extending MOTs have cut a few costs.

And, on lockdown, with few shops open, and no bars or restaurants, spending has dramatically fallen. In reality, a furloughed worker, with no commuting costs, and not going out, is probably racking up savings in the bank right now. With spring in full-bloom, what’s not to like?  

The trouble is, that is about to change. In truth recessions always hurt, which is why central banks and finance ministers do everything they can to avoid them. The deeper they are, the more they hurt, and this one looks set to be the deepest in a century and possibly three. It is not going to be any different. 

The true cost is already starting to become clear. Sadiq Kahns’s reckless mismanagement of London’s public transport may have exacerbated the problem, but the epidemic was always going to ravage its finances. The increase in the congestion charge to pay for its bail-out is just the first of many extra costs coming down the line. The furlough scheme has been extended to October, with strings to be attached, but it is unlikely many companies will want to keep on paying people who aren’t working for six months even if the Treasury is paying most of the bill.

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"If it rests it rusts," as the old saying has it, and that is as true of people as it is of machinery. Skills, contacts and workflow will all deteriorate. Quite soon companies will start making the hard decisions about who is coming back and who isn’t.

Even when staff do return, they can forget about pay rises or a bonus. No one expects Rishi Sunak to start balancing the books, or rattling on about prudence, any time soon, but he can’t spend money on an epic scale forever. Sooner or later, tax rises and spending freezes will kick in. 

The coronavirus epidemic has already taken a huge toll on the economy. We have  postponed the pain, and, with good fortune, we may even succeed in mitigating it a bit. But it is crazy to imagine we have made it disappear. When the cost starts to hit us all in the wallets, as it will very soon, the clamour to end lockdown is going to get louder and louder. 

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