Sen. Cory Gardner is on uncertain political terrain. With two years left in his first term, he watched two well-established Colorado Republicans go down to defeat on Election Day. Neither race was close, and neither race suggests a path forward.
On the one hand, there is four-term incumbent Congressman Mike Coffman. Coffman tried to take the high road and declined to reach out to President Donald Trump for his support in his re-election bid. His strategy got him nowhere; he was pummeled by newcomer Jason Crow, 54.1 percent to 42.9 percent.
On the other hand, there is two-term State Treasurer Walker Stapleton. Stapleton aggressively sought out Trump’s embraced, but to no avail. Stapleton lost by a nearly identical margin to Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jared Polis, 54.4 percent to 42.9 percent. If anything, the margin of Stapleton’s loss was the more surprising, as Polis is an unabashed Boulder progressive, a political profile that has long been out-of-step with statewide Colorado politics. As little as a decade ago, Polis’ ascent to the governor’s mansion would have been unimaginable; this year he won going away.
Republican losses were widespread across the state. For this first time in more than a half-century, one political party will control the governor’s office, every other statewide office, as well as both chambers of the General Assembly. But of greater concern for Gardner’s reelection prospects two years from now was the overwhelming support of independent voters — who now make up nearly half the electorate — for Polis. According to exit polling from Magellan Strategies, Polis outperformed Stapleton among independent voters by a whopping 59 percent to 25 percent.
Gardner is an ambitious 44-year-old who heads the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee. Gardner has tried to navigate the Trump era and appeal to both Republicans and independent voters by carefully cultivating an image as a “different kind of Republican” who is willing to stand up to the president in critical moments.
But if independent voters are fleeing the GOP, as the exit polls suggest, those days might be over. Gardner was clearly shaken by Trump’s post-election press conference, where the president singled out Coffman for public derision, as he attacked Republicans across the country who were defeated in the midterm elections after declining his “embrace.”
Following the president’s public shaming of Coffman, Gardner dutifully fell in line. He went on the Sunday talk shows, knowing full well he was perpetrating a lie, and parroted the president’s cries of fraud.
There are few things more essential to our civic life than the message that generations of Americans have passed on to their children that when we have disagreements, however bitter they might be, we resolve them at the ballot box. Along with the rule of law, faith in elections and the commitment to uphold their validity is among our most important institutions. Elections are not easy, and there are times when the outcomes test our faith; but it is all we have. Upholding that faith is a singular obligation of our elected leaders. The week following the election was a moment when our leaders were being tested; Gardner, along with many of his colleagues, failed that test.
Gardner has a year and a half to get his act together and decide who he is, and what kind of senator he wants to be. Perhaps he has calculated that he has no choice but to tack to the right and seek to run on Trump’s coattails. That may enable him to avoid a primary challenge from the right and provide a path to the general election. However, if the mood among independent voters remains anti-Trumpian, Gardner will be hard pressed to win reelection by that route.
On the other hand, Gardner might seek to emulate Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker. A different kind of Republican who has found success in a deep blue state, Baker was reelected by a healthy margin, 66.9 percent to 33.1 percent. His secret is straightforward. He listens to the voters, understands that integrity matters, and acts on a clear set of old-time, moderate Republican principles — almost all of which have been abandoned by a national Republican Party that has subsumed itself to Trump’s principle-free, win-at-all-costs politics.
Should Gardner stand his ground as a different kind of Republican, he might have a chance to be reelected. But if he tries to go all-in on Trump, his chances of winning will be slim or none, and he will lose his soul along the way.
David Paul lives in Boulder. Follow him on Twitter @dpaul, and his blog at appalled.blogspot.com. He is working on a book, with a working title of “FedExit! To Save Our Democracy, It’s Time to Let Alabama Be Alabama and Set California Free.”
