Wondering what kind of winter Juneau is in for?
NOAA meteorologists Rick Fritsch and Joel Curtis discussed Juneau’s winter weather forecast on Wednesday’s Juneau Afternoon. The current El Niño, as opposed to the cooler La Niña weather pattern, is among the factors to consider.
“The manifestation of that, for us here in Southeast Alaska, and really the entire gulf coast, is a warmer than normal bias on temperatures throughout the winter,” said Fritsch. “And winter, from a climate standpoint, is December, January, February. But in this particular case, we’re already seeing the warmer-than-normal conditions in November,” said Fritsch, a lead forecaster.
And remember “the blob” — that uncharacteristically warm water that’s been in the gulf? It’s back, but not as bad.
“On top of that, the Gulf of Alaska is currently warmer than normal … Not as severe as back then, but still, the signal is that it’s warmer than normal,” said Fritsch.
But skiers, before you pack your bags for Colorado, remember that record winter of snowfall in 2006 and 2007? That was also during an El Niño, like this year.
“But we got such a huge pile of snow in November, then, (at the) tail end of the year, we had another pile of snow in March. Autumn and spring, great snow season. The actual true Winter: December, January, February — mediocre,” said Fritsch.
So far, this November has not been promising for snow — and the forecast through Thanksgiving calls for rain with highs near 40 and lows in the mid 30s.
In general, NOAA data and models call for warmer and wetter conditions this winter. All that said, Joel Curtis, NOAA’s warning coordination meteorologist, is hopeful. Kind of.
“I mean, it could work out as snow. I am a cross-country skier. I love to ski, you know, and I really hope that it is snow. If I had to bet right now, I would bet against the snow,” said Curtis.
“I would too,” said Fritsch.
Click below to hear Juneau Afternoon host Sheli DeLaney’s full interview with Curtis and Fritsch with detailed explanations of El Niño, “the blob” and their data.
