Two big NFL trades shifted the fantasy football fortunes of two top receivers, with the Broncos sending Demaryius Thomas to the Texans and the Lions dealing Golden Tate to the Eagles.
The Packers’ comparatively minor trade of Ty Montgomery is more an annoyance in Baltimore than anything.
Whenever a player is moved someone usually gains an opportunity while someone else might see their role diminished. Tuesday’s trades seem to be a case where there are more winners than losers, but let’s sort out the fallout from all the activity before the NFL trade deadline.
Winner: Demaryius Thomas, WR, Texans
Let’s face it, Thomas was still a “No. 1” in name only. Since Case Keenum took over at quarterback, Emmanuel Sanders has led in targets and receptions, and they look even farther apart in the pecking order than the numbers suggest. So this trade helps Thomas’ fantasy stock as much as it does the Broncos, who get a fourth-round pick. Here are some takeaways:
—The Texans desperately needed another outside receiver when Will Fuller went down with an ACL tear. Though he’s a slot receiver, Keke Coutee’s hurting hamstring only exacerbates the problem. So at least for the short term, Thomas’ role in the offense — and the target volume — is solidified.
— Let’s face it: Deshaun Watson is an upgrade at quarterback especially as Watson grows more comfortable.
— We don’t know yet how exactly Thomas will be used in Houston, but he should see similar coverage opposite DeAndre Hopkins. It wasn’t like Thomas was seeing a lot of double coverage at his age.
— Denver has an easier schedule for wide receivers coming up in Weeks 11 through 13, so Thomas will miss that, but Houston has a slight advantage in the playoff weeks (15 and 16) with matchups against the Jets and Eagles.
— The bottom line: Thomas was a borderline drop as he seemed to become less important to the Broncos by the week. Now with a slightly better passing offense that truly needs, he retains his value and could even see a bump in his production, particularly with touchdowns.
Winner: Golden Tate, WR, Eagles
Before the trade, who was the No. 1 receiver in Detroit? Tate? Marvin Jones? Kenny Golladay? It depends on which week you’re asking the question.
Tate won’t be the WR1 in Philadelphia, for certain, but that might be the best thing for him. Let Alshon Jeffery draw the top cornerback while Tate goes against second-tier defensive backs.
Now, presumably Tate will operate out of the slot, where Nelson Agholor does his best work, so that could be a wait-and-see proposition. But you’d have to believe the Eagles wouldn’t have traded a third-round pick so Tate could defer to the likes of Agholor and Jordan Matthews.
Bottom line: Wherever he lines up, the connection between the leagues’ shiftiest pass catcher and an improvisational quarterback like Carson Wentz should be a dream pairing. This should be a boost for Tate, especially in PPR leagues.
Loser: Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions
The Lions quarterback is already inconsistent, now you take away his most reliable target. Tate was the team’s targets and receptions leader. He also was tied with Golladay with eight catches of more than 20 yards and was second to him in converting first downs.
Worst of all, no other Lion came close to Tate’s 259 yards after the catch. That stings.
Push: Case Keenum, QB, Broncos
Keenum often looked to Sanders first and sometimes padded Thomas’ numbers when the game was out of reach. He also has a pair of prized rookies in Courtland Sutton and DaeSean Hamilton who are hungry for snaps.
Winner: Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans
Thomas isn’t a better option than a healthy Will Fuller would’ve been but it’s certainly better than standing pat and leaving a huge hole in Houston receiving corps. As a deep threat, Thomas isn’t the burner Fuller is, but he could make up for it as another big red-zone target for Watson.
Push: Carson Wentz, QB, Eagles
This likely helps Wentz more in real football terms — Tate is a consummate chain mover — than it does in fantasy. Any touchdowns Tate adds may come at the expense of his fellow Philly receivers.
Winner: Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos
Metaphorically speaking, Thomas spent the entire first half of the season looking over his shoulder at his younger clone. The rookie seemed to be nipping at Thomas’ heels in recent weeks, finding the end zone twice this month and gaining a season-high 78 yards Sunday in Kansas City.
Sutton jumps to the top of the waiver wire priority list for Week 9. The final six weeks of his fantasy season looks very favorable.
Winner: Kenny Golladay, WR, Lions
Golladay seemed to be on the losing end of the three-way battle with Tate and Marvin Jones. Golladay hasn’t had a double-digit fantasy since Week 5. Tate’s departure likely ensures he’ll get higher volume from here on out. Jones’ production should remain steady.
Loser: Nelson Agholor, WR, Eagles
Agholor saw 39 targets in September, when Alshon Jeffery missed three games while recovering from shoulder surgery. In October, it dropped to 22. After two months, he has only three double-digit games in PPR. Tate’s arrival only confirms what we already began to suspect: Agholor’s droppable.
Losers: Ty Montgomery and Buck Allen
After Montgomery fumbled away an opportunity for the Packers to knock off the undefeated Rams on Sunday, and then complained about how the team treated him in the aftermath, it was little surprise that they shipped him off to Baltimore for a 2020 seventh-round pick.
But from the Ravens’ perspective: Why? They already have the exact same player — a pass catcher and change-of-pace back — in Allen. Some reports say Allen has fallen out of favor, but he just caught a touchdown Sunday against the Panthers.
Now here’s the best part (or worst, depending on how you look at it): Montgomery inherits a coach in John Harbaugh who has been just as fickle with running backs as Mike McCarthy has been.
Twitter @_phil_thompson
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