WA-5 House Race: McMorris Rodgers Up Over Lisa Brown

SPOKANE, WA - Incumbent Cathy McMorris Rodgers was beating Democrat Lisa Brown in returns on Tuesday night. The race was not as close as expected, and the Associated Press called it for McMorris Rodgers around 9 p.m.

The race has been unexpectedly close up until the election.

Brown, a former state senator and chancellor of Washington State University's Spokane campus, is well known in Eastern Washington. But McMorris Rodgers has held her seat for 14 years. Her win this year puts her in Congress for an eighth term. A Democrat has not held the seat since 1994.

As recently as Oct. 2, polls showed the two candidates in a tight race. A poll commissioned by Brown's campaign had the Democrat at 46 percent to McMorris Rodgers' 49 percent. That's within the poll's margin of error.

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Here's where the race between Brown and McMorris Rodgers stood Tuesday night:

• Brown (D) 81,295 votes, 44.05%
• McMorris Rodgers (R) 103,238 votes, 55.95%

Like the similarly competitive race in Washington's 8th District , the 5th District race started more than a year ago. Brown announced she would run in August 2017, and she was the only Democrat in the primary race. Several Republicans (and one member of something called the Trump Populist Party) stepped up to challenge McMorris Rodgers.

The August primary race was close, with McMorris Rodgers earning about 49 percent of the vote to Brown's 45 percent.

"After 14 years in Congress, our current representative is part of that problem. Tonight’s results reflect what I continue to hear from voters throughout the district – that eastern Washington is ready for a change, and a new voice who puts our priorities over either political party," Brown said in a press release after the August primary.

The two candidates have been close in fundraising, too, with Brown raising $5.2 million and McMorris Rodgers raising $5.5 million.

President Trump has been a factor in the race. McMorris Rodgers doesn't go out of her way to talk about the president, but Brown has tried to link the incumbent to Trump through the president's tariffs. Brown has said an ongoing trade war with China is "devastating eastern Washington farmers."

While Trump holds raucous rallies across the United States, McMorris Rodgers hasn't received a visit from the president. Vice President Mike Pence did appear at a fundraising dinner for her in October.

On the other end of the spectrum, Brown hasn't said if she'll support Nancy Pelosi for House Speaker if Democrats take control of Congress.

The 5th Congressional District voted for Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016, but not all voters in the district are happy with the president. An Elway poll conducted in April found that 45 percent of 5th Congressional District voters disapproved of Trump, including 36 percent who "strongly" disapprove of him.

In an election analysis, the Spokesman Review highlighted several factors that could boost Brown to victory: high voter turnout, good debate performances, college voters and the overall blue "wave" predicted for 2018.

But there are factors in McMorris Rodgers' favor, too, including her fundraising, good debate performances and the potential for low voter turnout, including among college kids. There's also the Matt Shea factor. The ultra-conservative Spokane Valley legislator is behind McMorris Rodgers.

"In past years, some of the most conservative Republicans have been lukewarm about McMorris Rodgers. But she reached out to the most conservative of them, state Rep Matt Shea, R-Spokane Valley, early this year, an effort that seems to have paid off with his endorsement. In some previous elections, Shea has withheld his support," the Spokesman Review wrote.

Election results will start flowing in after 8 p.m. Tuesday, but it's possible the election won't be decided for days, if not weeks. In just Spokane County, turnout was approaching 50 percent as of Nov. 5 at noon - a figure that will likely get much bigger by Election Night.

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