Rockets vs. Warriors: Analysis, Predictions for Western Conference Finals Game 2

Game 2 between the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors has a lot to live up to—Game 1, for instance.

Though the Warriors eked out a 110-106 victory, opening up a 1-0 series lead, anyone flirting with the idea that Houston would be their personal turnstile fell victim to a rude awakening.

The Rockets came ready to rock, shooting 59.1 percent in the first quarter and leading by as many as 16 points in the first half. For a while, it looked as if they would become just the fourth team to beat Golden State at Oracle Arena this season.

Led by Stephen Curry's 34 points and five assists on 13-of-22 shooting—a performance worthy of, well, the NBA's MVP—the Warriors came storming back, erasing that 16-point deficit and taking a three-point advantage of their own into the locker room at halftime, never again looking back.

Now it's on to Game 2. 

If you're the Rockets, you have to be feeling somewhat good about keeping things close in Game 1. It proves that, on any given night, even with Dwight Howard, Josh Smith and Terrence Jones turning in suboptimal performances, you can hang with the best.

Then again, if you're the Warriors, you're still at home, working off a win, in prime position to deliver a death sentence that is a 2-0 series lead.

Can the the Rockets do more than toy with victory Thursday night, knotting the series up while bilking Golden State of home-court advantage? Or will the Warriors ride Oracle's electric ambience to yet another win and, thus, complete control of these Western Conference Finals? 

Key Storylines

Did Golden State Withstand Houston's Best Shot in Game 1?

Not everyone on the Rockets played well in Game 1.

Still, they kept things close, building a huge lead and refusing to disappear once it was gone. James Harden and Trevor Ariza totaled 48 points and 11 assists, while Smith provided additional playmaking (five assists) and much-needed rebounding (seven boards).

There are no moral victories in the NBA, but Game 1 ranks pretty high on the possible exception scale. That the Rockets were ahead or within striking distance for its entirety is an accomplishment.

Here's the thing: It's an accomplishment that still ended in disappointment. And there's no guarantee it gets any better.

Despite Harden tallying 21 points and shooting 9-of-13 from the floor through the final two frames, the Rockets would never regain the lead. Big shots from both Ariza and Harden kept them close late in the fourth quarter, but the Warriors, specifically Curry, drilled big shots of their own.

"Harden was brilliant, and yet it still wasn't enough to keep Golden State from building a double-digit second-half lead," wrote SI.com's Ben Golliver. "These developments raised an unavoidable question: How will Houston keep up if Harden is ever less than excellent?"

Ariza won't always shoot 7-of-10 from the floor and play a part in nearly shutting down Klay Thompson. Clint Capela won't always excel against Golden State's front line in a pinch.

Jason Terry and Jones will combine to shoot better than 4-of-19 in the future, but Harden won't always post a 55 percent clip against the league's best defense. Collectively, the Rockets won't always have a 16-point cushion to play off.

At its core, Game 1 wasn't Houston's best. Not with Howard hurting and Corey Brewer, Jones and Terry all leaving points on the board. 

But looking at the lead they squandered and knowing how good Golden State is, Game 1, in all its bungled promise, could still be the Rockets' series ceiling.

Can Dwight Howard Make a Positive Impact?

One way or another, Howard will have an impact in Game 2. It's just that after suffering a left knee bruise in Game 1, said impact could come in the form of an absence, per Yahoo Sports' Marc. J. Spears:

Playing won't assure Howard of anything. He was struggling against Golden State's small-ball lineups to begin with, committing turnovers and ending defensive possessions out of position.

Yet, while the Warriors' pocket-sized five-man units may force Rockets head coach Kevin McHale to limit Howard's playing time anyway, it's senseless to think there's a silver lining to his injury.

There is no Western Conference Finals berth for the Rockets without Howard. He was a monster during their second-round comeback, holding the Los Angeles Clippers to 34.1 percent shooting through the latter three games. And the Rockets need him to be that same defensive monster now.

As Grantland's Danny Chau wrote of Game 1:

But, staring at the final score, it’s hard not to wonder how things might’ve been different had Josh Smith not fallen into the side of Dwight Howard’s left knee midway through the first quarter. Houston was plus-14 in points in the paint at the end of a first quarter in which Golden State managed only six. But in the ensuing three quarters, the Warriors scored 44 in the paint, and they lost the battle down there by only two points.

Even against a Warriors offense that prides itself on making mincemeat out of traditional big men, the Rockets need Howard. They're allowing 111.7 points per 100 possessions without him on the floor through these playoffs, a mark that would have ranked dead last during the regular season by far.

A limited Howard, then, is better than no Howard at all. The problem is, given how Game 1 unfolded, a limited Howard won't be enough—not in Game 2 or beyond.

Obvious Adjustments Each Team Must Make

Golden State: Starting Faster

Come-from-behind wins are becoming a common theme for the Warriors—much too common for a 67-win title favorite. They put themselves in similar spots against the New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies, the latter of which was able to steal two victories as a result.

Too often the Warriors are letting opponents dictate the opening pace. The Grizzlies displaced them from their comfort zone in Round 2, forcing the Warriors to play slow. And now that they're up against the postseason's fastest team, playing a style better suited to their regular-season efforts, the Warriors are straying from what works.

Some of the that can be attributed to a bonkers-looking second quarter. Nine different players appeared in the frame for the Warriors, visibly impacting their offensive flow at the beginning.

Much of the blame, though, falls on their defense. The Warriors had eyes for only Harden in the first quarter, and it wasn't until midway through the second that they started pushing the bill, switching on everything and daring Houston's supporting cast to beat them.

It's no surprise that, after shooting nearly 60 percent in the first quarter, the Rockets shot under 43 percent in the final three periods. Nor is it surprising that the Warriors went from shooting 37.5 percent in the first quarter to drilling 50 percent of their attempts the rest of the way.

They have the ability to turn it around that quickly.

Game 2 is all about ensuring they won't need to.

Houston: Guarding the Unguardable

Steve Kerr threw Houston for a loop when he trotted out zero-in, five-out lineups. The Rockets were caught off guard and unable to match up on defense, paving the way for Golden State's comeback.

No five-man combination saw more time than Curry, Thompson, Draymond Green, Shaun Livingston and Harrison Barnes. That group outscored the Rockets by 15 points—in 12 minutes—during a game the Warriors won by only four.

Few teams are equipped to guard against such versatility. And by "few," we mean "zero." As Green said afterward, per ESPN.com's Ethan Sherwood Strauss: 

When you try to keep a big in against our small lineup, it’s rough. Because we go into a pick-and-roll with myself and Steph [Curry], and if they trap or stay high, try to get in the pocket and make plays out of it. They struggled a bit with the small lineup when they were big with Dwight. That’s what kind of changed the game for us.

Some of what the Rockets did worked. They managed to keep Thompson at bay (6-of-18 from the floor) and were winning the battle down low prior to Howard's injury. There's also not much they can do when the Warriors shoot 26-of-50 (52 percent) on contested looks.

But quirky lineups are no excuse for allowing open shots, and the Rockets relinquished 42 uncontested field-goal attempts. And, as CBS Sports' Matt Moore pointed out, you just can't do that against a team headlined by Curry:

Troubling still, more than half of Barnes' looks went uncontested, as did nearly half of Thompson's attempts. Neither player connected on more than 37.5 percent of those opportunities, but good luck expecting that to continue.

X-Factors

Golden State: Shaun Livingston

Livingston went off in Game 1.

No, really, he did. He pumped in 18 points to go along with seven rebounds, three assists and one steal, a performance that dwarfed his final three outings against Memphis, per ESPN Stats & Information:

More of the same from Livingston will likely spell doom for the Rockets in Game 2. Their bench doesn't have an answer for him. He has unparalleled size and length for a guard and can exploit the Rockets defense from the inside out.

He also proved valuable as a secondary Harden stopper. No one actually stopped Harden, but between Livingston, Green, Thompson and Andre Iguodala, Golden State has the personnel necessary to change its defensive schemes on a whim, making it so the MVP runner-up never gets too comfortable.

If Livingston serves as something of a rich-man's Andre Iguodala once again, it's difficult to imagine the Warriors losing.

Houston: Terrence Jones

The Rockets will need more from Jones if they're to win Game 2.

Crazy though it sounds, shooting 2-of-10 from the floor just won't cut it. Jones killed the Rockets defense in Game 1 and was too timid on the offensive end, as Bleacher Report's Jonathan Feigen observed:

Combating Golden State's play style and Howard's presumed limitations comes down to Jones and Smith. They are the Rockets' last line of defense against five-wing lineups because of their ability to space the floor and, most importantly, guard bigs.

Should Jones' disappearing act leak into Game 2, it leaves Smith to fight on his own. And, as we saw in Game 1, that's not enough for the Rockets to win.

Key Matchup

Klay Thompson vs. James Harden

Aside from their slow start in Game 1, the Warriors' biggest concern leading into Game 2 is Harden. He torched their defense for 28 points and nine assists Tuesday night, thoroughly outworking Thompson.

Which, really, isn't a total indictment of Thompson's performance. Harden also outmaneuvered Livingston, Green and everyone else the Warriors put on him.

Most of his attempts (12) were actually contested. He just shot 50 percent in such situations.

To that end, there's nothing Thompson and the Warriors can do about this:

Or this:

Recognizing that Harden is not from this planet, Thompson isn't about to panic ahead of Game 2, per the Sporting News' Jimmy Spencer:

Nevertheless, this remains a pivotal individual matchup. It's because of Harden's superhuman effort that Houston kind-of-sort-of-but-not-really almost won Game 1.

Stopping Harden—or at least limiting him—is the Warriors' ticket to a more convincing victory in Game 2.

Prediction

There's no question the Rockets made a statement in Game 1: They won't go down quietly.

That doesn't mean they'll win Game 2.

Kerr's Warriors have made it their business to outthink every playoff opponent, and the Rockets are no different. They are no match for Golden State's lineup games, and even less of a match for Curry, who is still prone to MVP behavior.

On top of that, Howard's staunch rim and interior protection is no longer a given. He looked off in Game 1 while favoring his left knee bruise.

Worse, his staunch rim and interior protection is not necessarily an asset even if he's at full strength. The Warriors are death-dealing shooters who push and press until they find an outside look to their liking.

Better performances from Terry, Jones and Howard will all help the Rockets' cause. But they, in addition to Harden and Ariza, must be flawless just to have a chance. And sometimes—like in the early parts of Game 1—not even exceptional execution is enough.

The Warriors are just that good.

Prediction: Warriors 111, Rockets 101

Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited.

Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @danfavale.