We’re now within three weeks of Election Day.
Here are three plot lines to ponder as we head closer to the first referendum on the Trump Era.
Democratic Agenda. A quick review of the last three midterm upheavals shows the out-of-power party offering definitive thoughts on what to do given control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Republicans offered a “Contract With America” in 1994. Twelve years later, Democrats offered a “Six For ’06” plan of their own. In 2010, Republicans retook the House on a promise to repeal Obamacare and stop a New Deal reboot – what’s since been labeled “The Great Repudiation”.
The Democratic agenda in 2016? House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi outlined it earlier this week: lowering health care costs, addressing infrastructure, greater transparency in the House (isn’t this offered in every election?), plus granting legal status to “Dreamers”.
I have three thoughts, the first being: does any of those ideas move swing voters? I think not. It’s a Trump-dominated election; good luck ladling out predictable Democratic gruel.
A second thought: what does this say about what a Speaker Pelosi would do with newfound power?
The only way to get an immigration deal with Trump is by giving in to him on border security – i.e. building the wall. Does this mean Pelosi believes in a common-ground approach to governing, when most of her caucus would prefer scorched earth?
And a third thought: what about impeachment?
The Democratic leadership line is to avoid such talk (that applies to both Trump and Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh). Can they maintain radio silence for the last three weeks of this election?
Montana Senate. Let’s go through the Republicans’ Senate options on Election Night.
Four states – Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee and Texas – are key GOP holds. Democrats have to win at least two for any chance of regaining majority control.
As for potential pickups for Republicans, the list includes Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana and North Dakota (if you want to be ambitious, here are three more that currently lean Democratic: New Jersey, Wisconsin and West Virginia).
It’s the Montana race that fascinates. Trump held a rally there today (his third appearance in the state in this campaign season). And he’s made a point of going after Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in very personal ways after Tester made very sordid allegations against the president’s Veteran Affairs nominee back in April (drunken behavior, overprescribing prescription drugs and causing a hostile work environment).
If all politics is local, political money out west isn’t. Outside groups and individual donors have dumped more than $45 million into the Montana race.
Ironically, that money helps both sides with the message they prefer. For Tester’s opponents, its claiming the two-term incumbent is out of touch with Montanans on a host of issues (guns, immigration, judges, national security). For Tester, it’s claiming he’s “not for sale” to outsiders.
Should Republicans reclaim Montana, it could spell a big night for the GOP as the party adds to its majority advantage. Small wonder Trump (and his vice president and son) keep returning there.
Georgia Runoff?The last national election was held in November 2016. However, the final significant race wasn’t decided until the following month – a U.S. Senate runoff in Louisiana, with the winner giving Republicans a 52ndseat in the chamber.
We could be headed for overtime in 2018, thanks to the uncertainty of Georgia’s gubernatorial race. Will Libertarian Ted Metz take away enough votes from Democrat Stacey Abrams and Republican Brian Kemp to force a Dec. 4 runoff (under Georgia law, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the vote to win a general election)?
Fitting for a bruising election, the Georgia contest is black and blue – i.e., if Abrams can turn the state sufficiently blue, she becomes the nation’s first black female governor. Thus a runoff vote takes on the added dimension of racial politics.
Add to that: the media hobbyhorse of Democrats regaining a foothold in the South. That explains the sloppy lovefest with Democrat Beto O’Rourke in Texas’ Senate race. Abrams would continue that narrative.
About Georgia being in play for Democrats: I attended the 1988 Democratic National Convention in Atlanta, which talked up the idea of a “New South” and redesigning America’s political map. Michael Dukakis failed to draw 40% of Georgia’s vote that year.
In 2016, pundits talked about Georgia being in play for Hillary Clinton and a Democratic campaign that appealed to suburban Atlanta voters (here’s a good example of the media jumping to false conclusions at the time). Trump carried the state by 5 points; Hillary finished 0.1% behind Barack Obama’s 2012 finish.
Still, that won’t discourage 2020 Democratic hopefuls from pouring into Georgia should there be a runoff. The devil won’t go down to Georgia in November and December; Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and Cory Booker all likely would.
So call it what is it, if indeed this scenario unfolds: that runoff vote in Georgia, on the first Tuesday in December, would mark the end of this year’s election . . . and the beginning of Campaign 2020.
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