Volatility 101: Should Compass Group (LON:CPG) Shares Have Dropped 23%?

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Compass Group PLC (LON:CPG) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 26% in the last month. But in truth the last year hasn't been good for the share price. The cold reality is that the stock has dropped 23% in one year, under-performing the market.

View our latest analysis for Compass Group

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Unfortunately Compass Group reported an EPS drop of 1.9% for the last year. This reduction in EPS is not as bad as the 23% share price fall. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, a year ago.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

LSE:CPG Past and Future Earnings April 19th 2020
LSE:CPG Past and Future Earnings April 19th 2020

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. This free interactive report on Compass Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

Investors should note that there's a difference between Compass Group's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Its history of dividend payouts mean that Compass Group's TSR, which was a 21% drop over the last year, was not as bad as the share price return.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Compass Group shareholders are down 21% for the year (even including dividends) . Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 17%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 5.0% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Compass Group that you should be aware of before investing here.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.

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