Who has the edge? A breakdown of the Florida State vs. Louisville football game

Off to the program's worst start in 45 years, Florida State (0-3, 0-1 in ACC) returns home this weekend looking for its first win of the season.

But it won't be easy to come by against a Louisville team (2-1, 0-0) that is riding high coming off last week's 42-35 home win over UCF. There's a far rosier outlook around the U of L program than there was mere weeks ago in the wake of a lopsided season-opening loss to Ole Miss in Atlanta.

The Cardinals have had to replace a number of skill-position players, but return an extremely talented dual-threat quarterback and an offensive line that should give him time to operate.

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Where could FSU have an advantage over Louisville that it could exploit to come away with a win? Here's a positional breakdown of both rosters.

Quarterbacks

After both Jordan Travis and McKenzie Milton appeared in each of FSU's first three games this season, that may not happen for the first time this season. Travis' status for Saturday's game is up in the air due to an injury he suffered against Wake Forest.

Should he be unavailable, Milton would be FSU's full-time quarterback. If his play so far this season had remotely resembled his former greatness at UCF so far this season, FSU may have the edge here. But Milton has not yet found his groove at quarterback for the Seminoles.

Meanwhile, Malik Cunningham is in his fourth season of action for the Cardinals. He's not an especially prolific passer, but does enough, especially when paired with his running ability. He already has six rushing touchdowns through three games and will be a test unlike anything the FSU defense has faced this season.

Paired with his 734 passing yards and 61.2% completion percentage so far this season, he gives U of L the nod here.

Edge: Louisville

Running backs

While FSU has utilized a rotation of running backs so far this season, Louisville has relied heavily on a single back.

Redshirt freshman Jalen Mitchell out of Rockledge, Fla. -- the same hometown as FSU running back Jashaun Corbin -- is the only Louisville back who has 15 or more carries or 50-plus rushing yards through three games.

Mitchell has 213 rushing yards and is averaging 4.6 yards per carry, but has just one touchdown, with the majority of them being stolen by Cunningham.

FSU, meanwhile, has two of the top eight running backs in the ACC in yards per carry in Corbin and Treshaun Ward, both of whom have 150-plus yards and are averaging over 6.7 yards per carry.

While there have been some questions about how FSU has rotated its running backs, the run game has been the sole strength of an offense that has struggled to build momentum.

Edge: Florida State

Wide receivers

Coming into the season, there were significant concerns about the production the FSU wide receivers would generate. Through three games, those concerns have been rightfully validated.

No FSU wide receiver has more than 89 receiving yards a quarter of the way through the Seminoles' regular season. Ontaria Wilson leads the group with 89 yards, 65 of which came on his long touchdown catch last week.

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Louisville lost its top two receivers off last year's team in Dre Fitzpatrick and Tutu Atwell, who combined for over 1,400 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2020.

The Cardinals have struggled somewhat in replacing that receiver talent. They have just one receiver who has surpassed 100 yards so far this season. True freshman Ahmari Huggins-Bruce has 174 receiving yards, but 155 of those came against FCS opponent Eastern Kentucky.

Through three games this season, FSU's and Louisville's receivers have two touchdown catches each.

Edge: Louisville (slight)

Tight ends

While Louisville's edge is minimal at wide receiver, it holds a sizable advantage at tight end.

Redshirt sophomore Marshon Ford has been the Cardinals' most frequent receiving target this season. He's got a team-high 13 catches which he has turned into 156 yards. Most recently, he had 100 yards on eight catches and a touchdown in the win over UCF.

Three different FSU tight ends have registered a catch so far this season. Camren McDonald, Jordan Wilson and Wyatt Rector have combined for 86 yards and a touchdown so far this season.

Their collective power can't make up the deficit of Ford's significant impact.

Edge: Louisville

Offensive line

It isn't entirely fair to judge FSU's offensive line from what it has looked like on the field so far this season.

FSU got just one half from its desired starting five before center Maurice Smith was no longer able to play through his injury which has sidelined him in the last two games. Starting left tackle Robert Scott also missed the Wake Forest game after suffering an injury against Jacksonville State.

Both could be back this week and it would give a more accurate representation of FSU's offensive line, but that still isn't expected to measure up against U of L's offensive front which returned four starters who had a combined 78 career starts entering the season.

Two of those four, guard Caleb Chandler and tackle Renato Brown, grade out above 70% so far this season according to Pro Football Focus.

Edge: Louisville

Defensive line

FSU's revitalized defensive line has been one of the few bright spots for the Seminoles this season.

Jermaine Johnson's 4.5 sacks and 28 tackles are already more than all of FSU's defensive ends had last season. The Seminoles' 12 sacks, 9.5 of which have come from defensive linemen, are already more than the 10 FSU had in nine games last year.

Defensive end Derrick McLendon has also taken a notable step forward, as have defensive tackles Fabian Lovett and Robert Cooper.

By comparison, Louisville's defensive line has just two sacks and 3.5 tackles for loss so far this season. True freshman Ashton Gillotte has made an instant impact with a sack and 2.5 tackles for loss, but the unit as a whole hasn't made a significant impact.

Edge: Florida State

Linebackers

Louisville's 3-4 defensive scheme puts an emphasis on building up linebackers.

With two sacks this season, outside linebacker Yasir Abdullah has been the Cardinals' most effective pass-rusher. Inside linebackers C.J. Avery and Monty Montgomery are both multi-year contributors who have established themselves as mainstays on the defense.

FSU's linebacker unit was the defense's biggest concern coming into the season. Redshirt freshman Kalen DeLoach has been one of the bright spots as a sure tackler and FSU's best coverage linebacker. Amari Gainer and D.J. Lundy have also both gotten plenty of playing time and had their moments of success. But there are still rightful concerns about the unit's capabilities.

Edge: Louisville

Defensive backs

Neither secondary has gotten off to an especially strong start to the 2021 season. Louisville's defense, tasked with a few loaded opposing offenses, has been tested early in the season, allowing 7.6 yards per completion (11th out of 14 ACC teams).

The Cardinals' secondary is led by cornerback Kei'Trel Clark, who already has two interceptions this season after earning a second-team All-ACC honor in 2020. 

FSU has had a few secondary standouts including South Carolina transfer Jammie Robinson and safety Renardo Green. But any progress from individuals has been overshadowed by a group of cornerbacks in Travis Jay, Jarvis Brownlee and Jarrian Jones who have all given up big passing plays at far too frequent a rate this season.

FSU is last in the ACC in both passing yards allowed (867) and yards per pass attempt (8.3) this season.

Edge: Louisville

Special teams

Louisville kicker James Turner holds the edge over FSU's Ryan Fitzgerald. Turner has made 15 of his 17 field goals over his first 14 games as the Cardinals' kicker and is 52 of 53 on extra points.

Fitzgerald has seemed improved this season, but hasn't gotten many chances to prove it lately, attempting just one field goal over the last two games after he made one of two against Notre Dame.

FSU holds the advantage at punter as redshirt freshman Alex Mastromanno is fourth in the ACC in average punt distance this season at 43 yards. Louisville's true freshman punter Mark Vassett is dead last among qualifying ACC punters, averaging 40.2 yards per punt so far this season.

Edge: Even

Coaching

Coming into the season, I would have thought FSU head coach Mike Norvell gets the edge here. Both Norvell and Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield are well regarded for their offensive genius minds, but Satterfield has been more successful on this front so far this season.

He's coming off a game where he was widely praised for his play-calling against UCF while Norvell has been questioned and accepted blame along with offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham for his role in the Seminoles' offensive woes early this season.

Additionally, U of L defensive coordinator Bryan Brown has done a better job revitalizing the poor defensive unit he inherited than FSU's Adam Fuller.

Edge: Louisville

Intangibles

This is a real toss-up.

FSU has the home-field advantage working in its favor, but it's fair to question how much of an advantage FSU will have with fan support wavering due to the Seminoles' 0-3 start.

Louisville enters Tallahassee with plenty of momentum coming off the UCF win while the Seminoles have none. That being said, Louisville has lost its last six games away from home since the start of the 2020 season.

Despite that statistic, more is working in the Cardinals' favor than the Seminoles', who are 1.5-point home underdogs.

Edge: Louisville

Florida State vs. Louisville

When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.

Where: Doak Campbell Stadium

TV/Radio: ESPN2/94.9 FM

Reach Curt Weiler at cweiler@tallahassee.com or follow him on Twitter @CurtMWeiler.

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