Dates for elections to five state assemblies have already been announced and the results are expected on 11 December 18. A few months later the country will be voting for the government at the Centre. Political rhetoric is getting shriller and meaner as the nation goes into election mode. There are two questions that seem to be doing the rounds across various sections of the Indian society. First relates to the performance of NDA government under Mr Narendra Modi and second seeks answers to whether BJP’s main agenda is to pursue Hindutva politics that aims to establish Hindu supremacy and side line minorities (read Muslims). Both questions are very pertinent in the currently prevailing environment in the country.

When it comes to government’s performance most opposition leaders and Modi bashers are very vocal in giving the government a thumbs down in all aspects of governance. This is expected but not necessarily the right assessment since it is highly biased – both in intent and content. Any government in office will have its pluses and minuses. The important point is to understand them in their right perspective to arrive at a realistic and unbiased assessment that is based on both empirical data and perceptional factors. Empirical assessment is based on figures issued by the government and independent assessment agencies which can be national or international and therefore quantifiable. Perceptional assessment will be based on intuitions and understandings of voters and is not quantifiable. So where does the Modi government stand – empirically and perceptively?

GDP and inflation are two important indicators among others that define a nation’s overall economic health. GDP growth rate is hovering between 7 to 7.8% which is fair in today’s national and international environment while retail inflation is well under control at about 3.31% currently. Forex reserves are at an all-time high of nearly USD 390 billion. Exports, though stagnant, have not gone down in last four years. It may be prudent to mention that exports are dependent on global economic and market conditions to a large extent and not only on governmental policies. Bank lending has been slow due to various reasons but the good part is that banks are flushed with funds and as and when an industrial growth cycle takes off lending will not be an issue. Stock market index (Sensex) has moved up by nearly 50%. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has seen good growth in last three years. All these indicators do auger well for industry in days ahead. Bank Non-Performing Assets (NPAs) is something that is very worrisome and current figure at over 6.5 lakh crores is mind boggling for a layman. However this must be seen in its correct perspective as a baggage that has accumulated because of poor management and brushing of the problem under the carpet for decades. The current government has brought it out in the open to take stock and to prevent NPAs from increasing further. Will the government be able to recover this money from defaulting corporates and individuals is the big question? The record of last four years does not give much hope.

Demonetisation (DeMo) and introduction of GST are two favourite whipping boys for the opposition, liberals and others who do not see beyond their noses. DeMo may not have achieved some of its desired objectives and black money is back in market without a doubt. However post DeMo there are certainly a few visible positives. All the black money, generated over decades, found its way in the banks and is therefore available as a resource for exploitation formally. Businesses operating in the informal sector had taken it for granted to circumvent laws and to evade taxes with impunity. They certainly needed a wakeup call in the long term interests of the nation and DeMo did succeed to a large extent in doing so. Some sectors like jewellery, event management, housing and construction that accounted for a large part of the black money have certainly shown a major change and moved towards cleaner and transparent transactions in a big way. The number of individuals and businesses filing income tax returns has soared by more than 50% as per numbers available for the year ending March 2018. So is the case for indirect taxes.

As far as GST is concerned there can be no two opinions that this was one reform that had to be implemented at some point of time. It is equally true that in a nation like India it would never have been possible to really a set a dateline when one could have stated emphatically that the country was ready for GST. Therefore a bold decision was required and the NDA government bit the bullet to its credit. In just about a year the implementation is more or less on track despite the problems faced between individual state interests and central government. Disruptions for some businesses in the informal sector and a temporary drop in overall GDP growth were always a given irrespective of when GST kicked in. Without a doubt the government has been proactive in resolving problems. For those, including former governor of RBI, who still bemoan the advent of GST it is important to look within, set aside their personal agendas and be unbiased instead of criticising the government. All in all introduction and implementation of GST is certainly an achievement – pessimists, opposition and pseudo liberals notwithstanding.

Genuine job creation data is very hard to come by except for jobs created in government sector. Governmental job creation will continue to be muted and not likely to be a key factor in addressing the burgeoning needs of the nation. Investments in private sector have been weak and that means lack of job creation. However one area where it may be prudent to accept that a sizable number of jobs may have been created is the contractual job market that includes infrastructure development and employment opportunities under various government schemes launched in last four years that address mainly rural and semi-rural population of the country. The number of people employed in these areas is huge and could run in millions.

There are few other issues as far as economy is concerned. Fuel prices are at an all-time high despite lower international crude rates. While government has plausible answers, a common citizen is not in a mood to accept any explanation in this regard. Possibly the government could have played out this issue in a more consumer friendly manner. Essential food item prices have been generally stable and under check. The rupee has weakened by about 8% against the dollar but frankly as on date it is not an alarming issue. The perennial issues related to farmers continue to be unresolved because like its predecessors, NDA government too has no solutions in sight barring loan waivers and freebies for various agricultural inputs and keeping agricultural income out of tax net. This is also a major political issue and most political parties just take the easier way out. The need of the hour instead is to streamline the farm to table journey of food grains, fruits and vegetables to reduce price manipulation by middlemen and ensure ease of access to markets.

NDA government’s performance on foreign policy front is once again a mixed bag. On the plus side Mr Modi has established his personal credentials across the world with most major nations and in international forums. However concerns remain about our relations with immediate neighbours like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Maldives and Nepal where China seems to pushing India back. Relations with Pakistan can be best described as ‘no relations’ since there is hardly any dialogue or interaction. As far as China is concerned a message has been driven home that India will not cow down against any excesses and Doklam standoff proved this point. In addition India has reiterated its sovereignty over states in North East by going ahead with infrastructure and defence related developments despite China’s objections from time to time. Overall India’s prestige as a nation has certainly seen an upswing under Mr Modi. As far as defence preparedness is concerned, after taking stock of the situation in first two years, things are moving at a good pace to ensure up gradation of weaponry and equipment – something that had been neglected for over two decades. If current momentum can be maintained, India can hope to boast of a viable indigenous defence industry in next decade or so with private sector leading from the front.

The next question that has attracted a lot of debate across the nation is about BJP’s agenda to spread Hindutva and increase dominance of Hindus. At the outset it has to be understood that this is principally a ploy by opposition, pseudo liberals and part of the media to malign and get even with Mr Modi and BJP since most of them are either out of work or out of power and blame Mr Modi for all their woes. It is a ploy because even if BJP wants to do it, in a nation as diverse and as large as India, it is impossible to achieve this change even in a few decades – leave aside doing it in a few years. The centre could not impose Hindi as a national language after decades of efforts and it is now a dead issue. Therefore expecting BJP to turn the nation into a Hindu Rashtra and embrace Hindutwa is rather farfetched. Hindu society itself is so fragmented that unifying them under a common Hindutwa code is an impossible task. If this be so how can one expect the whole nation to adopt a Hindutwa code – willingly or otherwise? Random utterings by a few on subjects like nationalism, cow slaughter, love jihad or beef consumption cannot be seen as furtherance of government’s agenda to impose Hindutva on the nation. This is primarily a subject used by politicians and minority leaders to safeguard their vote banks.

Has the divide between Hindus and Muslims increased over the last few years under BJP rule? If one were to go by what media show and debate then it does appear as if the divide is now an unbridgeable chasm. It will be naïve to assume it is so on ground too. The only change that perhaps cannot be overlooked is that a few more Hindu voices are heard these days unlike the past where because of minority appeasement policies of Congress governments most Hindus had no say and therefore were not heard. In a nation that has over 82% Hindu population this had to change one day and the few Hindu voices heard today are part of that change. Some may even credit the government for this development. But to assume that under BJP rule 105 million Hindus will turn against 18 million Muslims is only being mischievous and anti-national in intent. Hindu society has been and continues to be resilient when it comes to accepting and coexisting with different religions as it has shown since the advent of Mongol and Mughal raiders in 13th century AD. The question here is are other religious societies in India, particularly Muslims, ready to show the same resilience and acceptance given the rise of fundamental Islam in other parts of the world? This is the question that most liberals and leaders should be asking instead of spreading canards about spread of Hindutwa or Hindu dominance.

This whole false narrative on Hindutwa appears to be an off shoot of the Ram Mandir – Babri Masjid dispute that raised its head in 1992 and picked up momentum in years ahead. Once BJP came to power, as expected, the move for Ram Mandir did gather speed once again as within BJP itself there are some who do support the construction of Ram Mandir at the disputed site. There are some basic questions whose answers can help in resolving this dispute. Is Ayodhya a sacred site for Muslims as it is for Hindus? Was a Masjid built on the site after demolition of a Mandir? Will it make a difference to Muslims if the Masjid is built elsewhere in Ayodhya? Will it make a difference to Hindus if the Mandir is built elsewhere in Ayodhya? Are Ram and Ayodhya part of heritage of both Indian Muslims and Hindus? It will be hard not to answer the first and third questions with a NO while all others can be answered with a YES. Logically then a Mandir should be built there and a mosque can be built at a different site within Ayodhya. The question is are 18 million Indian Muslims who have a common heritage with 105 million Hindus ready to understand and be fair to their Hindu brethren? In short, the onus is on Muslims to rise above petty politics and do what is right for their country and be partners in preserving the rich heritage.

Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) too have been on centre stage for last four years. Surely no one expected the NDA government to find a solution to the problem in a couple of years that other governments could not do for six decades. It was always on the cards that BJP would take a hard stance towards militants, terrorists and in turn Pakistan unlike the pliant and appeasing approach of earlier governments. Time alone will show if current government’s approach will yield better results. But what is important is that nations are better off in such situations to deal from a position of strength rather than being seen as weak. Israel is a fine example of this and any nation can learn a lot from their approach. Some steps have already been taken to marginalise most militant outfits and separatists in the valley and that should auger well for J&K in the long term.

In a nation where nearly 20% of population lives below poverty line even today it is important that development policies aim at the grass root level and move up instead of the other way around. Unfortunately in India it has always been a top down development model and therefore needs and aspirations of poor have not been addressed in a focussed manner. NDA government has made a promising beginning to improve quality of life of poor people by launching schemes for financial inclusion, hygiene and sanitation, LPG gas for cooking, building homes and rural electrification. Hopefully other schemes aimed at development of youth, education, providing jobs, skill development and medical insurance too will take off in earnest to make rural India a better place to live and ensure a minimum acceptable quality of life for the poor.

Is the above report card satisfactory? The problem with any performance appraisal of NDA government is not what it has achieved or not achieved. The problem lies in the more than tall promises that Mr Modi and his party made prior to coming to power as part of their poll rhetoric. One may recall the 1960 Olympics where our own Milkha Singh ran the race of his life and broke the 400m Olympic record. Unfortunately he still did not qualify for a medal because three others too broke the record and finished ahead of him. Does that undermine Milkha’s performance? I leave that for the reader to decide. Possibly Modi government too is in a similar predicament because of their pre poll promises. One hopes suitable lessons have been learnt for the build up to 2019 elections.

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Views expressed above are the author's own.

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