What Las Vegas thinks about 2014 college football
With Golden Nugget's June 13 release of the point spreads for what it considers the 200 "biggest" games of college football's regular season, Las Vegas has provided a glimpse of how it sees the landscape for 2014.
Some of its lines make clear that it thinks some of the best teams of 2013 – Florida State, Baylor, Alabama, Stanford – will remain so. Some of its other lines make clear that it thinks some of the poorest performers of 2013 – neighbors Virginia and West Virginia – will stay that way.
In reviewing the list of 200 from week to week, one not only can discern the teams Vegas likes and dislikes, but also how strongly it feels about them.
TEAMS VEGAS LIKES
Alabama: Eight of the Crimson Tide's 12 games made Golden Nugget's top 200, and Alabama is favored in all of them by an average of nearly 16 points. Only one – 2 ½ points at LSU – is less than 6.
Auburn: The national runner-up Tigers played more than their share of close games in 2013, but they are favored to win their opener by 24 against a struggling but highly motivated Arkansas team. Auburn also is a 13-point favorite in a tougher-than-it-might-look Thursday night game at Kansas State and is a bigger favorite over LSU than even Alabama is.
USC: The Trojans are just 3 ½- and 4 ½-point underdogs at Stanford and UCLA – two likely preseason top 15 teams. After an early stumble vs. the Cardinal, USC is favored to win in double digits against at least six of its remaining opponents.
North Carolina: A 2013 darkhorse that never really got out of the starting gate, the Tar Heels seem to be viewed as a team on the rise. They are narrow underdogs at Clemson, Notre Dame and Miami and a double-digit favorite in at least five others.
2013 BOWL TEAMS THAT VEGAS DOESN'T LIKE
Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish are projected as narrow favorites vs. Navy and Syracuse in neutral site games and underdogs in three games vs. Pac-12 opponents Stanford, USC and lightly regarded (by Vegas) Arizona State. And then there's that 24-point line on Oct. 18 at Florida State.
Oregon State: Six Beavers games made Golden Nugget's top 200, and they're favored to win only one of them.
TEAMS THAT COULD BE BUY LOWS
Kansas State: The Wildcats are favored in six of nine games in the top 200, but don't be surprised if they steal one of their three underdog matchups – vs. Auburn, at Oklahoma and at Baylor.
West Virginia: Throw out a single-digit spread vs. Kansas State and a pick 'em vs. Iowa State, and the Mountaineers are an underdog by an average of 20.5 points in five Big 12 games. West Virginia is coming off a horrendous season, but it has way too much offensive talent for that to happen.
TEAMS VEGAS ISN'T BUYING
Michigan: Solid underdogs to rivals Michigan State, Notre Dame and Ohio State and just a three-point favorite at Northwestern.
Tennessee: A 12-point underdog at Ole Miss. A 20-point underdog vs. Alabama. An 18-point underdog at South Carolina.
TEAMS WITH SOMETHING TO PROVE
Wisconsin: A potential preseason top 15 team that is a touchdown underdog to LSU and a touchdown favorite vs. Northwestern and Iowa.
UCLA: A potential preseason top 15 team that is favored to beat USC and Stanford yet is a touchdown underdog at Arizona State.
TEAMS THAT ARE REGRESSING
Missouri: Projected losses in games vs. South Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Texas A&M are no way to return to the SEC Championship. That said, 2013 had similar expectations.
Texas A&M: If being a 9-point underdog for its opener at South Carolina isn't enough of a sign there are questions post-Johnny Manziel, there's the 16 ½-point spread at Alabama. And if that's not enough, how about being a 3-point underdog at Mississippi State?
