The weight of Monday's missed opportunity didn't fully settle in for the Maryland men's basketball team until the next day in the film room at Xfinity Center. Players were applauded by coaches for their energy and effort at Michigan after embarrassing road losses to Michigan State and Ohio State this month. But nothing could temper watching footage of their most painful moment of the season, in the final 3.2 seconds of a 68-67 loss to the Wolverines.
Nothing could stop the film of Michigan guard Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman sneaking behind Maryland's press, catching a long inbounds pass and drawing a foul to set up the game-winning free throws. Maryland Coach Mark Turgeon would take the blame for that defensive blunder, which raised so many questions about his late-game strategy and the direction of the season.
"It's been a very different year, with injuries . . . with what we've just had to go through. So we're still just trying to figure it out," Turgeon said Tuesday. "I think we're getting better at figuring out what we have right now and making that group better. That's the challenge I have."
If the film of Monday night's loss was a reminder of anything, it's that Maryland's margin for error is thinning considerably — and its chances to build a quality postseason résumé are dwindling by the day.
The Terrapins (14-6, 3-4 Big Ten) will probably need to win seven of their final 11 games and reach a conference record of 10-8 to be considered for an at-large berth to the NCAA tournament, but even then the Terrapins might need to bolster their portfolio with a run at the Big Ten tournament at Madison Square Garden. The analytics website KenPom.com, whose rankings are one of several measures used by the NCAA tournament selection committee, favors Maryland in eight of its final 11 games. That includes a 74 percent chance to claim victory over depleted Minnesota (14-6, 3-4) on Thursday night in College Park.
When the Big Ten schedule was released in August, Maryland's matchup against the Gophers had the look of a marquee conference game. But both teams have underachieved and are in similar positions. Maryland has lost two power forwards, Justin Jackson and Ivan Bender, to season-ending injuries. Minnesota is also down two starters — center Reggie Lynch is suspended for allegedly violating the school's sexual misconduct policy, and sophomore guard Amir Coffey is sidelined with a shoulder injury. The Gophers, like the Terrapins, have lost three of their past four, two of them blowouts.
"They're going through a similar situation that we're going through," senior center Michal Cekovsky said.
While Thursday's game represents a chance for a needed win for Maryland, the matchup's diminished stature underscores a down year for much of the Big Ten, creating fewer remaining opportunities for the Terps to polish their NCAA tournament résumé. Maryland has just one win over a team ranked in KenPom.com's top 50 — it beat Butler, 79-65, in November — and, based on the current rankings, only three more games against top-50 teams for the remainder of the regular season. That includes back-to-back games against the league's two heavyweights, Michigan State and Purdue, in late January. It also includes the home finale against Michigan, a game Maryland is favored to win.
"We're trying to win every game. Where that gets us at the end, I don't know. We have a lot of great opportunities ahead of us still. Eleven good teams. So if you're able to get some wins, it's going to help you," Turgeon said. "I concern myself more with my team, but if you look around the country, there's a lot of teams in similar situations as us. So it's how we handle the next five or six weeks what is really important."
Maryland is hoping that its final stretch will mirror the 2014-15 campaign, when it was blown out in three consecutive Big Ten road contests in the middle of the season but won its final seven regular season games. Turgeon's teams have struggled late in conference play each of the past two years, however: In 2015-16, Maryland lost four of its last six; a year ago, the Terrapins lost five of seven late in conference play.
"Now that we've lost three road games, it's kind of new for everybody, except for the older guys," senior forward Jared Nickens said. "We have a lot of games left. We just have to focus in."
Turgeon said his team "made three huge mistakes defensively" late in the loss to Michigan, but he told his players after they got off the bus early Tuesday that it was the team's drop in offensive production in the second half that hurt its chances to win. Nonetheless, the defensive breakdown at the end of the game earned Turgeon plenty of criticism.
Some wondered why Turgeon didn't have a player guarding the inbound pass; others wondered why Anthony Cowan Jr. had his back turned to the ball as Abdur-Rahkman sneaked behind the defense and caught the half-court pass. When asked Wednesday whether he heard any of the critiques of his coaching or team, Turgeon replied: "I don't hear any of it."
"I hope we have a great crowd [against Minnesota]. This is when we need our fans more than ever. It's easy when you're winning all the time," Turgeon said. "But when you're a little bit depleted, and you really have to fight to win, it would be nice to have a great crowd behind us. And that's what I think you do at a basketball school, you fight through this together."
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