What will the 2018-19 winter be like in the Evansville area?

It's late October, so it must be time to gather the winter forecasts from all the usual sources.

But before we get to the talk of "above average" or "more than normal" or whatever the pundits have to say, let's first assess what an "average winter" in Evansville is, according to National Weather Service statistics.

A typical winter in Evansville sees 12.1 inches of snowfall. In fact, the winter of 2017-18 saw exactly that amount of snowfall recorded at Evansville Regional Airport, the official measurement location in the city for National Weather Service purposes.

That was dramatically higher than the winter of 2016-17, when only 1.4 inches of snow fell in Evansville, but less than the four winters prior to that, when more snow than average was measured.

Snowfall statistics for Evansville date back to 1948-49. The two snowiest winters in Evansville history came in 1969-70 (37.9 inches) and the vaunted winter of 1977-78, when 37.4 inches fell. The two least snowy winters — 2011-12 (0.5 inches) and 2016-17 (1.4 inches) have occurred in the past 7 years.

The average high temperatures in Evansville for December, January and February are 44, 41 and 46 degrees, respectively, while the average lows for those months are 27, 24 and 27.

On average, Evansville receives 3.76 inches of precipitation in December, 3.1 inches in January and 3.17 inches in February.

With all that said, let's look at what the usual sources have to say about the winter of 2018-19 in Evansville

NOAA winter outlook

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which includes the National Weather Service, issued its winter outlook on Oct. 18.

As it usually does, NOAA's forecast included a look at the "El Nino" phenomenon, which can influence weather in the United States. El Nino, according to NOAA, is "an ocean-atmosphere climate interaction that is linked to periodic warming in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. During the winter, typical El Nino conditions in the U.S. can include wetter-than-average precipitation in the South and drier conditions in parts of the North."

NOAA says there's a 70-75 percent chance El Nino will develop this year. The result? A better chance of warmer-than-normal conditions in much of the United States, though, notably not in the Ohio Valley. In the Evansville area, there are equal chances for warmer-than-normal and cooler-than-normal temperatures.

The NOAA forecast of a likely El Nino also means wetter-than-normal conditions in the Southern United States. But in the Ohio Valley, including Evansville, there are again equal chances for drier-than-normal and wetter-than-normal conditions for the winter.

NOAA also mentioned that drought conditions are "likely to persist" in much of the West, but could improve in Arizona, New Mexico, southern Utah and southern Colorado.

So why no specifics on snowfall amounts for the winter? NOAA puts it this way in its outlook: "Snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are still likely to occur."

The Farmers' Almanac

In business since the early 19th Century, the Farmers' Almanac also publishes a winter outlook each year. 

This year's Farmers' Almanac lists the Great Lakes region, including Indiana, in an area that can expect "biting cold" and "snowy" conditions, which would put it squarely in the "colder than normal" and "wetter than normal" categories. 

The publication also predicts these things for the region:

• Rain and wet snow exiting right before Thanksgiving, with drier and clearer conditions for the holiday itself.
• A messy Christmas, with a "wintry mix as mild air from the South overruns cold air from the North."
• Heavy rain and snow for the lower Ohio Valley between Jan. 12 and Jan. 15.
• A snowstorm between Feb. 1 and Feb. 3.

The Old Farmer's Almanac

The other almanac, The Old Farmer's Almanac, is taking the opposite road for the Evansville area, at least in terms of the temperature. 

The Old Farmer's Almanac says the winter will largely be "warm, wet" in most of the Eastern United States, including the Ohio Valley.