ACC Weekend: Tricky games for Duke and UNC; NC State tries to play spoiler

By Lauren Brownlow

It's the second-to-last ACC weekend of the year! Man, did it go by quickly. For our local teams, will NC State stay in YOLO mode against a downtrodden Virginia team? Can Duke bounce back and avoid consecutive losses against a tricky Miami team? And can North Carolina avoid AN EXTREMELY OBVIOUS TRAP at Pittsburgh? We shall see.

So let's not waste time!

VIRGINIA (18-9, 8-7) AT NC STATE (15-14, 4-12)

Time: 12:00 p.m.
TV: ESPN

#ANALYSIS

Well, here we are. A team in Virginia with no confidence versus a team in NC State with...some? It's hard to know with NC State, since they haven't been able to string together consecutive good performances, seemingly, since the non-conference slate. Is this team truly playing with nothing to lose now? Perhaps. Will it matter? I'm not sure. I do know that Virginia is a team with no offensive confidence at the moment, so who better to face than a team in NC State that has only very occasionally shown any real interest in defense? If you can't score on them, Virginia, you can't score on anyone. I could try to analyze this game using real numbers and stuff, but we all know there's no point.

THIS GUY

Mamadi Diakite. Every game, there's a random player for the opposing team who State inexplicably chooses not to guard early and who consequently gets going and has a career high, then later State fans bemoan this fact as if it happened in a vacuum. I'm kidding. They realize it was because of bad defense, but still bemoan its randomness nonetheless. I have a feeling it could be the bouncy freshman big man Diakite for Virginia, who is seeing more and more playing time lately. And with good reason: he has 12 blocks in the last six games and is just an energetic and good defensive presence for the Hoos. Offensively? Eh. Not there yet. But he did have five points in the overtime loss to Miami,and considering Virginia only scored 48 in 45 minutes, that's...a lot?

HERE'S A GUY

Terry Henderson. Welcome to the party, pal! And by party I mean welcome back to the land of your shot falling, Terry. That deserves a party! It had not been happening lately - Henderson was 2-of-13 from 3 in State's last three games prior to Georgia Tech and 6-of-24 in the previous four. He hd 21 points, tied for his second-most in ACC play, in the win over Georgia Tech and he hit 3-of-5 three's but 4-of-6 2's (his most 2's in ACC play and most overall since November 26). We all say we want to see Dennis Smith be a distributor and facilitate easier shots for his teammates. But when they're not all playing well or hitting shots, it becomes more difficult to do that. (Smith is still first in ACC-only assist rate and 20th nationally, but I digress.) Henderson was supposed to be one of those guys. If he is, then State is a different team.

NARRATIVES

Virginia Win:

Virginia Loss:

NC State Win:

NC State Loss:

PREDICTION

Virginia, 77-65. How the Cavaliers got their groove back!

NO. 8 NORTH CAROLINA (24-5, 12-3) AT PITTSBURGH (15-13, 4-11)

Time: 12:00 p.m.
TV: ACC Network

#ANALYSIS

TRAP TRAP TRAP TRAP TRAP TRAP TRAP

Now that we've gotten that out of the way, yes, this game has trap written all over it, in bright-red letters. Maybe it's...too obvious? I don't know, but in a very odd way, I feel like the two most difficult games North Carolina has left are their next two and that the Duke game is third. It's not that the Duke game won't be difficult, but it's at home and will come after nearly a week of rest. Saturday starts a stretch of two games in three days, both on the road. Pitt is a tough place to play and it's not a great matchup for North Carolina. And then after that, should the Tar Heels get through it, they go to Virginia to play a team that might have woken up offensively by then. But they have to get through this one first.

Last time these two teams played, Pitt hit nearly as many 3-pointers (13) as it did 2-pointers (17), getting open looks repeatedly against a Tar Heel defense that struggled to find them. North Carolina, though, rebounded nearly half of its misses and hit nine three-pointers of its own. But it was a two-point escape, at home, against a Pitt team that at that point had lost six in a row. They'd lose to Duke in another close one after that and since, they've won three of five. At home, Pitt is 3-5 in league play, including a win over Virginia and three losses by single digits (two of those losses, though, were decidedly not close). If they can keep it to a low-possession game, make shots and minimize Carolina's second looks, they'll certainly have a chance.

THIS GUY

Theo Pinson. He didn't play the last time these two teams faced off, and it limited North Carolina's ability to go small to match a smallish Pitt team. That ability will still be limited as Kenny Williams is out with injury, but Pinson was and is more capable of playing one of the big man spots than any other guard besides Justin Jackson. And the Tar Heels have thrived on his energy. It seemed as if moving him into the starting lineup might limit his role as a spark, but it really hasn't. Airballed finger roll against Louisville aside, he finished hte Louisville game with a season-high 13 points on 4-of-10 shooting and fearlessly drove the lane until he found the basket, prompting his teammates to attack smarter and better, too. He had five turnovers all season before three against Louisville, but we're nitpicking. If Carolina's bigs can't check Pitt's versatile bigs, Pinson will be called upon to help.

HERE'S A GUY

Michael Young. Few teams do, but North Carolina really does not have anyone who can guard Michael Young. It was evidenced in the last matchup as he had 19 points on 7-of-11 shooting (2-of-4 from three), adding 10 rebounds. He's been a bit streaky from 3 this season - he's 4-of-13 in the last five games - but he's getting to the foul line and on the glass pretty consistently, and just the fact that he's a threat to shoot 3's makes him a matchup problem for almost everyone. He's put up 20 or more points four times in the last six games, including 24 in the loss at Wake in just 28 minutes. He was limited by foul trouble in that one, and it was arguably the reason Pitt lost the game. The Tar Heels are going to have to decide how long they want to live with the mismatch on defense, as long as they can exploit the mismatch on the other end. But if Meeks, Hicks or whomever can't guard Young AND can't score on the other end against him? Yeah.

NARRATIVES

North Carolina Win:

North Carolina Loss:

Pittsburgh Win:

Pittsburgh Loss:

PREDICTION

North Carolina, 81-74. It feels too obvious to be a real trap. Right? It can't be this obvious. Can it?

NO. 10 DUKE (22-6, 10-5) AT MIAMI (19-8, 9-6)

Time: 4:00 p.m.
TV: CBS

#ANALYSIS

When Miami lost at Duke last time in spite of leading by 11 at the half, the Hurricanes were finishing a stretch where they would lose four of five. Since that Duke loss, though, they've won seven of their last nine and are 5-1 at home with the only loss coming to Florida State. They even won all three games in a row without point guard Ja'Quan Newton, who was suspended again. The Hurricanes will defend you, which can keep you in games against almost anyone. But they've had their issues on offense at times, namely with turnovers. In the first matchup with Duke, that was their problem - 18 turnovers (26.9% of all possessions).

THIS GUY

Grayson Allen. So, Grayson is tired. Or injured. Or both. Regardless of what he is, though, he's not playing well right now. Since the North Carolina game when he hit 25 points and was finishing off of a stretch of 19 or more points in four straight games, he has scored 32 points total in the last four games combined on 9-of-39 shooting (2-of-12 from 2, 7-of-27 from three). And it's not really just a recent trend, either. His three-point percentage is down from 43.5% in league play a year ago to 35.4% this year, and his two-point percentage is down from 51.4% to 46%. Even his free-throw rate is down, albeit slightly - he drew 5.8 fouls per 40 minutes in ACC play a year ago and it's down to 4.7. His toe has supposedly been an issue for him all season long, and it looks like it's flaring up again. And because of that, he's the one getting rest as Frank Jackson gets increased minutes, not Luke Kennard - Kennard's game is now suffering some as a result, too. This isn't pick on Grayson time, but if he can't figure out a way to stay more in a facilitator role and help his team that way, Duke's going to struggle.

HERE'S A GUY

Bruce Brown. He's not the first name you think of when you think of this Miami team but when you watch them, he's one of the first you notice. And if you watched him play against North Carolina and Duke, you certainly did - he had 15 in the loss at Duke on 6-of-10 shooting (plus five rebounds and six assists), then against North Carolina in a home upset win, he had THIRTY on 8-of-11 shooting and drained 4-of-6 three's (plus 10-of-13 free throws). He doesn't take a ton of 3's, but he's shooting 40% in league play in spite of a recent 3-of-20 slump since that North Carolina game. His strength is attacking the basket and either finishing, dishing to a teammate or drawing a foul. He's ninth in league-only free-throw rate and draws 4.2 fouls per 40 minutes in ACC play. Duke has had a lot of issues stopping dribble penetration and defending ball screens. Brown could be a problem.

NARRATIVES

Duke Win:

Duke Loss:

Miami Win:

Miami Loss:

PREDICTION

Miami, 77-71. I had Duke losing this game almost all season. I am more reluctant now to pick it this way, but hey.

_

NO. 19 FLORIDA STATE (22-6, 10-5) AT CLEMSON (14-13, 4-11)

Time: 12:00 p.m.
TV: ACC Network

#ANALYSIS

Here we go. Do we trust Florida State to win a road game it should win, or do we trust Clemson to win any game, particularly one against a good team? Sure, Clemson has loads of moral victories: two losses to Virginia Tech by a combined two points, a one-point loss to Syracuse, a three-point loss in overtime to North Carolina, a four-point loss to Virginia. Oh wait, all but one of those were at home? Clemson has as many road wins as it does home wins in league play this year, and while they've taken by far their ugliest L's on the road, losses are losses. And last time these two teams met...hoo, boy. FSU won by 48 in a game that wasn't even that close. As unsteady as FSU has been on the road lately, it's hard to imagine a 48-point swing. Now, Florida State probably won't make 17 3's again. But still. Clemson has to avoid turning it over on 30.1% of their possessions this time and maybe shoot better than 37% from two. I don't know. I'm just spitballing.

NARRATIVES

Florida State Win: Hey you won an ACC road game against a team you should beat

Florida State Loss:

Clemson Win:

Clemson Loss:

PREDICTION

Florida State, 79-76. Moral victory, again! The committee will be impressed.

VIRGINIA TECH (19-8, 8-7) AT BOSTON COLLEGE (9-19, 2-13)

Time: 4:00 p.m.
TV: ACC Network

#ANALYSIS

I'm just going to say this in advance: don't do this, Virginia Tech. Don't go doing anything stupid that makes the selection committee have to think twice about you. The Hokies have won two of three since losing Chris Clarke to injury, and the loss was by four AT Louisville. So they're frisky, but as much as they stick around, they generally let opponents stick around, too. Their most lopsided WIN this season was still the season-opening win over Duke. They lost their next two by double digits, then beat Syracuse by 10. Since, their six ACC wins have come by a combined 14 points. Their most lopsided? By six, at home, against Boston College. The Eagles have had a week off, seemingly to reflect on how they might not be trash in the league in some other season, but that's not an easy place to get a win. And if Virginia Tech struggles to defend, they're going to be in for a long afternoon.

NARRATIVES

Virginia Tech Win:

Virginia Tech Loss:

Boston College Win:

Boston College Loss:

PREDICTION

Virginia Tech, 81-77. I guess.

SUNDAY

SYRACUSE (17-12, 9-7) AT NO. 7 LOUISVILLE (22-6, 10-5)

Time: 2:00 p.m.
TV: CBS

#ANALYSIS

Syracuse, a team that is much better at home, coming off of a big win going on the road playing a better team coming off of a disappointing loss? Hmm. That might be all the analysis I need. But seriously, the last time these two teams played, it went to overtime and Louisville pulled off a win thanks to 11-year-old boy Ryan McMahon. (Kidding!) Syracuse was just 8-of-34 from three in that game, which is a problem. They were inexplicably able to limit Louisville's offensive rebounding, and if they do that again, they'll be able to hang in this game, too. But for a lot of reasons, I just don't see that happening.

NARRATIVES

Syracuse Win:

Syracuse Loss:

Louisville Win:

Louisville Loss: Watching Louisville on offense lately

PREDICTION

Louisville, 84-65. Feels like the Cardinals are due for one of those blowout wins to put the ACC back on notice.

GEORGIA TECH (16-12, 7-8) AT NO. 21 NOTRE DAME (21-7, 10-5)

Time: 6:30 p.m.
TV: ESPNU

#ANALYSIS

Well, your Coach of the Year candidacy was fun while it lasted, Josh Pastner. But I'm so sorry, you have been eliminated for losing AT HOME to this current version of NC State. Better luck next time! Okay, so Georgia Tech won the first matchup between these two teams, at home. A big reason for that is Notre Dame hit just 16-of-40 two-point tries, and guys not named V.J. Beachem or Bonzie Colson were 3-of-20. Georgia Tech does have excellent defense. But their offense is still. Not. Good. Notre Dame has its groove back, and the Irish are at home. As long as they avoid doing anything dumb, they should win. And welcome back indeed!

NARRATIVES

Georgia Tech Win: Live shot of Josh Pastner

Georgia Tech Loss:

Notre Dame Win:

Notre Dame Loss:

PREDICTION

Notre Dame, 78-66. What's that I smell? Is that a....five-game Notre Dame winning streak? Is that...the longest winning streak in the league?

Last week: 11-3 (11-3 ACC)
Overall: 87-46 (78-41 ACC)