Brian Bennett, formerly of ESPN and currently a contributor to The Athletic — he authors the site’s bracketology feature — writes a weekly Pac-12 basketball column for the Hotline.
I was asked on a couple of radio shows this week if there’s anything the Pac-12 could do to redeem itself in this NCAA tournament.
The short answer: not really.
Sure, if somehow Arizona State, Oregon or Washington makes a stunning run to the Final Four, then the embarrassment of the previous five months diminishes. But that is highly unlikely.
When a power conference gets one more bid than the Ohio Valley and places no teams above the No. 9 seed line, that’s pretty much the whole story.
Luckily, teams can author their own narrative in March. The Pac-12 desperately needs at least one win in the bracket after last year’s dreadful goose egg, both for respect and those valuable tournament units for the conference coffers.
Here’s a deeper dive into each of the three teams’ tournament draws, in order of tip times.
No. 11 Arizona State vs. No. 11 St. John’s, (Wednesday, 6:10 p.m., Dayton)
What’s at stake: The good news is, Bobby Hurley has the Sun Devils in back-to-back tournaments for the first time since the Jimmy Carter presidency. The bad news: If a team falls in the First Four, was it really ever there?
Arizona State lost in Dayton last year, so getting to the actual first round would be considered progress this time around.
Biggest matchup: Shamorie Ponds vs. Remy Martin.
To be honest, the guard matchup we’d really like to see here is between Hurley and Red Storm coach Chris Mullin in their primes. But Ponds vs. Martin isn’t bad, either.
The St. John’s point guard is an explosive scorer who has had 10 games of at least 25 points this season. Martin is a streaky shooter in his own right whose defense on Ponds will be critical – assuming he’s healthy after suffering a groin strain in the Pac-12 tournament.
Key stat: 47 and 48.
Those are the tempo rankings for Arizona State and St. John’s, respectively, according to KenPom.com. The teams’ offensive efficiency rankings are also just one spot apart, with the Sun Devils 68th and the Red Storm 69th .
In other words, these are two evenly matched teams who like a frenzied pace. It won’t be boring.
Who will win: Well, if you thought Arizona State was an unpredictable, up-and-down outfit, get a load of its opponent. St. John’s beat Marquette twice and Villanova once but also lost to the likes of DePaul (twice) and Providence (twice) while finishing the season losing five of seven. The Red Storm’s overall résumé is much lighter than the Sun Devils’ team sheet.
Assuming Martin is healthy enough to go, Arizona State should eke this one out by a bucket or two.
If they win: Up next would be No. 6 seed Buffalo, which upset Arizona in the first round last year. Hurley coached the Bulls before coming to Tempe, and his protégé, Nate Oats, is their head coach now. Hurley coached many of the Buffalo players, including star guard C.J. Massinburg, so the scouting should be easy despite the quick turnaround.
This would be an emotional game on both sides, and another one played at a breakneck pace.
No. 12 Oregon vs. No. 5 Wisconsin, (Friday, 1:30 p.m., San Jose)
What’s at stake: The Ducks, for whom the tournament looked like a pipe dream until about a week ago, couldn’t have asked for a better draw.
They get to play close to home on a Friday after winning four games in Las Vegas and will face a team that plays at one of the slowest paces in the country (332nd out of 353 Division I teams).
That would seem to play into the hands of an Oregon defense that has been simply stifling for the past eight games. Don’t be stunned if the final score winds up in the 40s.
Everything from here on is gravy for Dana Altman’s team, though if it can maintain the defensive intensity from the past two weeks, a run to the Sweet 16 is possible.
Biggest matchup: Kenny Wooten vs. Ethan Happ
Happ, a senior, is one of the best big men in the country and the fulcrum of the Badgers’ attack. He has some of the best footwork you’ll ever see, a preternatural sense of how to avoid defenders around the rim and a keen passing eye.
It will be up to Wooten, one of the nation’s top shot blockers, to at least make life difficult for Wisconsin’s star. Happ rarely ventures far from the paint and is a horrid free-throw shooter, so Greg Gard may have to take him off the floor in crunch time.
If not, Altman should not be above using the Hack-A-Happ strategy.
Key stat: 14.4.
That’s Wisconsin’s turnover percentage, which ranks eighth-best nationally. Oregon is best when applying pressure, and its 20.9 turnover rate defensively is top-50 in the country. Neither of these teams wants to play particularly fast, but the Ducks are more reliant on forcing mistakes in order to generate offense.
Who will win: Plenty of early money has been placed on Oregon to win, as bettors see a matchup ripe for a classic 12-5 upset. The Ducks are playing with house money, and if Payton Pritchard keeps up his career-best level of play, they might just move on.
But I think Wisconsin is just a little too savvy and Happ just a little too good. Badgers win thanks to a controversial charge drawn late by world-class pest Brad Davison.
If they win: Oregon would get the winner of Kansas State/UC Irvine. Kansas State is another plodding team (342nd in tempo) that excels on defense, while UC Irvine (278th ) is more of the same. The Ducks would have to win two rock fights for a surprise Sweet 16 trip.
No. 9 Washington vs. No. 8 Utah State (Friday, 3:50 p.m., Columbus)
What’s at stake: On one hand, a No. 9 seed for a power conference regular-season champion is insulting. On the other hand, the Huskies had very little on their résumé and should be grateful for their seed. But not their draw.
Utah State won 28 games and the Mountain West tournament and comes into the dance red hot, having lost only once since Jan. 9. MWC player of the year Sam Merrill is one of the best players most of the country knows nothing about. He’s legit.
Washington had a breakthrough year under Mike Hopkins but seemed to hit cruise control after basically clinching the Pac-12 title in mid-February. A year that ends with a first-round loss would feel unsatisfying, especially with five of the team’s top six players (assuming Jaylen Nowell turns pro) gone after this year.
Biggest matchup: Merrill vs. Matisse Thybulle
OK, so there aren’t really individual matchups because of the Huskies’ 2-3 zone, but Thybulle needs to lock down his side of the floor whenever Merrill roams there. Both are 6-foot-5 and among the smartest and most instinctual players in the tournament. The one thing Washington can’t afford to do is foul Merrill, since he’s a 90 percent shooter from the line.
Key stat: 11.8 percent.
That’s the amount of offensive possessions the Aggies have played against a zone defense this season, according to Synergy Sports data.
The Huskies’ best weapon in this tournament will be teams’ unfamiliarity with their zone, much in the way Syracuse tends to advance farther than most expect.
However, Utah State has been pretty good in limited exposure against zone defenses this year, scoring over a point per possession in those situations while shooting 45.2 percent. That ranks in the 82nd percentile nationally, according to
Synergy.
Then again, the Aggies haven’t faced a zone with an active, long and brilliant defender like Thybulle at the top.
Who will win: This has all the makings of a close game, as Washington has superior athleticism, while Utah State is an outstanding rebounding and solid shooting team.
Neither roster has any tournament experience (both last appeared in 2011), so nerves could be a factor.
If – and it’s a big if — Washington can rediscover its earlier-season mojo and shooting stroke, the Huskies can pull this out. I see Nowell making enough plays down the stretch to make it happen.
If they win: Barring a 16-over-1 upset (hey, it has happened!), Washington would play North Carolina in the second round. That’s an awful matchup for Mike Hopkins’ club, which lacks size and isn’t explosive enough to run with the Tar Heels.
UNC shredded the Syracuse zone on Feb. 26, scoring 93 points and shooting 48.3 percent.
That, to put it lightly, does not bode well.
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