Are the Cubs and Dodgers ready for their rubber series? They are among the favorites in the National League, along with the Nationals, after splitting the past two NLCS.
NL East
1. Nationals
O/U wins: 92 ¹/₂
Key player: OF Bryce Harper. Who else? His long-awaited walk year has arrived. How convincingly will he make his case that he should be the game’s highest-paid player? Now that the Yankees have clogged his Bronx destiny by acquiring OF Giancarlo Stanton (the current owner of the industry’s largest contract), for whom will he be auditioning? As long as he’s healthy, he’ll have your attention.
Player who’ll need to step up: Does C Matt Wieters have much left at this point? At 31 — that’s 62 in catcher years — he struggled so much last year, his first with the Nats, that he passed on free agency and exercised his player option. He still ranks atop the team’s depth chart behind the plate.
Name you’ll get to know: OF Victor Robles made the Nationals’ 2017 postseason roster as a 20-year-old, and the Dominican Republic native looms as another reinforcement for this organization that rarely lacks for talent. The owner of 110 stolen bases in the minor leagues, along with a .395 on-base percentage, he’ll start the season in the minors in order to get regular reps, but if there’s an injury in the outfield, he’ll be ready.
Biggest question mark: How will first-year manager Dave Martinez, hired to replace the beloved Dusty Baker, control a clubhouse that could get jumpy what with Harper, 2B Daniel Murphy and LHP Gio Gonzalez all in their final seasons before free agency?
How it’ll go down: The Nationals will barely break a sweat in winning their fifth division title in seven years, and let’s be bold and proclaim they’ll even capture their first postseason series in franchise history — just in time to say bon voyage to Harper.
2. Mets
O/U wins: 81
Key player: The Mets know what it’s like to live without RHP Noah Syndergaard, and they don’t want to try it again. When healthy, Syndergaard offers excellence and endurance and allows everyone, including the reliable RHP Jacob deGrom, to move down one spot in the hierarchy. When Thor isn’t healthy, well, see 2017 as a reference. It’s difficult to envision a path to the playoffs for these Mets that doesn’t feature a robust Syndergaard.
Player who’ll need to step up: At least one of the closing duo of RHPs Jeurys Familia and AJ Ramos, neither of whom pitched his best in 2017. For all of new manager Mickey Callaway’s talk of wanting to go to a closer-less bullpen, no plan will work if you lack hard-throwing, effective arms.
Name you’ll get to know: IF Luis Guillorme has many admirers in the game, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he worked his way into the mix this summer. The slick-fielding middle infielder gets on base impressively, although he lacks power.
Biggest question mark: The first year the answer to this isn’t “health,” the Mets should throw themselves a crazy party in Flushing Meadows. They and their players have largely lost the benefit of the doubt after so many have spent so much time on the disabled list.
How it’ll go down: The Mets will fumigate the stench of 2017 by registering their third winning record in four seasons. Alas, they won’t notch their third postseason berth in four years thanks to a leaky bullpen and a weak farm system. RHP Matt Harvey’s ensuing departure via free agency will break up the Prodigal Five (Harvey, Syndergaard, deGrom, LHP Steven Matz and RHP Zack Wheeler).
3. Phillies
O/U wins: 75 ¹/₂
Key player: 1B Carlos Santana became the most accomplished and highest-paid man on the roster the instant he agreed to leave the Indians for Philadelphia. Even though he has since yielded both distinctions to RHP Jake Arrieta, Santana still will be looked upon to guide the young nucleus into contention, eventually, with this season serving as Phase One.
Player who’ll need to step up: It’s not a good sign if you get this designation for two straight seasons. That’s where 3B Maikel Franco stands in the wake of a lousy 2017, which followed a so-so 2016, which followed a promising rookie campaign in 2015. Can he prove himself worthy of hanging around as the team starts to crawl back into relevance?
Name you’ll get to know: It has been a long time coming for SS J.P. Crawford, who will get his chance at the everyday job. Hopes are high.
Biggest question mark: Who will win the Gabe Kapler debate, his advocates or his detractors? Everyone has an opinion on the most controversial of the new managers. Can he energize and mobilize his roster, or will his intensity and dedication to nutrition and fitness be a turnoff?
How it’ll go down: With a steady bullpen thanks to the addition of veteran RHPs Tommy Hunter and Pat Neshek, and with accomplished Arrieta leading the rotation, the Phillies will begin their climb in earnest after last year’s false start. They won’t be an easy mark on the schedule for the Nationals, the Mets or anyone else. And next winter, they’ll be willing to spend even more; don’t rule out Harper or Orioles 3B Manny Machado.
4. Braves
O/U wins: 74 ¹/₂
Key player: SS Dansby Swanson was the 2017 industry favorite (including in this space) to win National League Rookie of the Year honors. That didn’t work out very well, as the first overall selection of the 2015 amateur draft fizzled offensively. He’ll get another shot, and at age 24, it’s about time to bring it.
Player who’ll need to step up: RHP Julio Teheran tends to perform well in even-numbered years, so that represents good news for a franchise sorely in need of it. The 27-year-old’s past three seasons look like this: 95 ERA+ in 2015, 129 in 2016 and 95 again in 2017.
Name you’ll get to know: OF Ronald Acuna is one of the most exciting prospects in all of baseball, and after clocking 54 games with Triple-A Gwinnett last year, his time is near. He’ll be many folks’ favorite to be the NL Rookie of the Year.
Biggest question mark: Can the Braves shake off the palace intrigue that rocked their franchise last fall? General manager John Coppolella got banned from baseball after being accused of myriad improprieties, and former Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos arrived and slammed on the transaction brakes. Aside from a gigantic, book-balancing trade with the Dodgers that left them with RHP Brandon McCarthy, the Braves did very little this offseason.
How it’ll go down: This season simply will be about re-establishing normalcy within the organization and trust outside it. Enough of the young fellas will do enough to keep the Braves out of the cellar and provide hope that this rebuild might turn out all right despite the front-office chaos.
5. Marlins
O/U wins: 64 ¹/₂
Key player: C J.T. Realmuto wins the title of best returning player from this team that executed yet another massive teardown. He voiced his desire to jump ship last winter before relenting (he had no leverage, anyway). Can he stay upbeat and productive on what is certain to be an awful team? His season will start on a downbeat note, as he’s on the disabled list with a back injury.
Player who’ll need to step up: Would it to be too cynical to list no one, since the Marlins will be serious bidders for the first overall selection of the 2019 amateur draft by virtue of finishing with baseball’s worst record? If you’re more of an idealist, then 3B Martin Prado is an obvious candidate as the club’s highest-paid player. The former Yankee is coming off a lousy 2017 and is signed through next year.
Name you’ll get to know: OF Lewis Brinson came from Milwaukee as part of the package for OF Christian Yelich. The Marlins regard him as a critical piece to the strong team they hope to build.
Biggest question mark: How will rookie CEO Derek Jeter, who never played for a losing Yankees team, handle the grind of so many defeats and the continued scrutiny from once again blowing up this franchise? He isn’t accustomed to being so disliked by so many.
How it’ll go down: It won’t be pretty. The Marlins will lose over 100 games and will see home attendance drop precipitously from an already low perch. Jeter and company will try to sell potential customers on the future, so it would behoove them for the youngsters they’ve acquired in various trades to perform well.
NL Central
1. Cubs
O/U wins: 94 ¹/₂
Key player: RHP Yu Darvish. The Cubs’ starting rotation required a pick-me-up after a third straight extended playoff run, and Theo Epstein and friends went for a big jolt in a nine-figure deal for Darvish, who experienced a slight regular-season dip in 2017, pitched well in the first two rounds of the playoffs and got spanked in the World Series. If his Fall Classic meltdown wasn’t an aberration, the Cubs will have a problem on their hands.
Player who’ll need to step up: OF Kyle Schwarber was the 2016 golden boy when he fought back from a serious left knee injury to get activated for the World Series. Last year, he wound up at Triple-A Iowa, temporarily demoted in the wake of a horrendous start to the season. The Cubs offense would look considerably more dangerous with Schwarber attaining his potential. Given his poor defense, he has to hit pretty well simply to justify his place in the lineup.
Name you’ll get to know: RHP Adbert Alzolay enjoyed a strong 2017 season, climbing all the way to Double-A Tennessee. At 23, he could keep going all the way to the top this season.
Biggest question mark: Can RHP Brandon Morrow live up to the recent legacies of strong closing provided by LHP Aroldis Chapman in ’16 and RHP Wade Davis last season? A year ago, Morrow was a forgotten spare part. Is his stellar 2017 with the Dodgers repeatable, and will he experience any hangover effect after pitching in all seven World Series games?
How it’ll go down: The Cubs will continue their longest era of prosperity since the 1930s when they win their third straight division title and register their fourth consecutive playoff berth.
2. Brewers
O/U wins: 84 ¹/₂
Key player: OF Lorenzo Cain returned to his original team for one of the winter’s largest contracts. The Brewers will look to him to maintain his peak as he turns 32, in a prime defensive position, as well as provide wisdom from his experience with the Royals’ pennant winners.
Player who’ll need to step up: This one requires some nitpicking, since the truth is the Brewers addressed many of their shortcomings with impressive outside acquisitions. But old pal RHP Yovani Gallardo could help by shaking off lousy results from the last two years and working his way back to being at least league-average. The Brewers’ rotation features an interesting bunch with some track record of success, yet nothing approaching an ace.
Name you’ll get to know: OF Brett Phillips, whom the Brewers received from Houston in the 2015 Carlos Gomez trade (after the Mets voided their trade for Gomez), will be called upon in case of injury. He has excelled in the minor leagues and performed well in a 2017 cameo.
Biggest question mark: Second base. None among Hernan Perez, Eric Sogard or Jonathan Villar inspires much confidence. They didn’t last year, which is what led the Brewers acquiring Neil Walker from the Mets in August. They don’t now, and Walker is off the menu after signing with the Yankees.
How it’ll go down: Contrary to the pessimistic statistical projections on these guys, their 2017 renaissance was real and spectacular. After a strong offseason in which they acquired OF Christian Yelich in a trade with Miami in addition to the Cain signing, they’ll capture an NL wild-card spot for their first playoff berth since 2011.
3. Cardinals
O/U wins: 85 ¹/₂
Key player: OF Marcell Ozuna came over in a trade from the Marlins after Ozuna’s old teammate, OF Giancarlo Stanton, passed on the same journey. He has two years of eligibility left before he hits free agency, and the Cards are counting on him to boost his value — and the team’s offense, of course — while he’s around.
Player who’ll need to step up: Someone, anyone in the wide-open closer mix. With RHP Luke Gregerson starting the year on the disabled list due to a left hamstring injury, manager Mike Matheny will have to choose among LHP Tyler Lyons, RHP Dominic Leone, LHP Brett Cecil and RHP Matt Bowman, among others, to close out wins.
Name you’ll get to know: Consider RHP Alex Reyes a name you’ll get to re-know, as he was set to make an impact last year before submitting to Tommy John surgery. The Cardinals hope to get the 23-year-old Elizabeth, N.J., native in action by early May.
Biggest question mark: The starting rotation features little certainty beyond RHP Carlos Martinez. RHP Michael Wacha has been up and down, RHP Adam Wainwright will begin the season on the DL with a left hamstring injury and RHP Miles Mikolas represents an interesting risk after three good years in Japan.
How it’ll go down: The last time the Cardinals missed three straight postseasons was 1997 through 1999. They will match that thanks to too much competition atop their division and not enough pitching, and that will have to frustrate them given how aggressively they have tried to get back into the party.
4. Reds
O/U wins: 73 ¹/₂
Key player: 1B Joey Votto just missed capturing a second NL Most Valuable Player award last year, and he is a face of the franchise that can match up against any other team’s such player. As the Reds continue their glacially slow rebuilding project, the 34-year-old Votto represents excellence and goodwill.
Player who’ll need to step up: At age 27, is OF Billy Hamilton who he is at this juncture, with little hope for an uptick? Because if that’s the case, he simply doesn’t provide much value, his considerable speed and defense mitigated by his struggles to get on base. If he can post something as modest as a .320 on-base percentage, a threshold he has crossed in just one of his four full seasons, then he can help the Reds climb.
Name you’ll get to know: IF Nick Senzel , a third baseman by trade, will start the season playing second at Triple-A. Given the strong offensive numbers he has put up in the minors, it’s only a matter of time before he gets his big-league opportunity somewhere in the infield.
Biggest question mark: The pitching, the pitching, the pitching. The Reds allowed 869 runs last year, most in the NL and second-most in the majors. They responded to that by … sticking with the same bunch of arms, essentially. How much can one group improve in one year?
How it’ll go down: The Reds aren’t as bad as you think, thanks to a potent offense, and the farm system is starting to help. After three straight last-place finishes, it’ll be an accomplishment to make it all the way to fourth place, which they occupied in 2014.
5. Pirates
O/U wins: 73
Key player: OF Starling Marte represents the key to this franchise not being horrible in the near future. Last year, after the Pirates shook things up by installing Marte as their center fielder and shifting iconic OF Andrew McCutchen to right field, Marte responded by testing positive for illegal performance-enhancing drugs in April and getting suspended — and McCutchen pivoted right back to the middle. With McCutchen now a Giant, things had best go more smoothly this season.
Player who’ll need to step up: The responsibility gets shared by RHPs Chad Kuhl and Jameson Taillon, the prodigal duo from whom good things have long been expected. With ace RHP Gerrit Cole dealt to the Astros, the 25-year-old Kuhl and the 26-year-old Taillon must be at least league-average.
Name you’ll get to know: 3B Colin Moran, a product of Iona Prep in New Rochelle and nephew of former big-leaguer B.J. Surhoff, will get his shot after coming over in the Cole trade. Moran was the sixth overall selection (by the Marlins) in the 2013 amateur draft.
Biggest question mark: Can this organization keep it together after the gut-wrenching winter trades of Cole and McCutchen, which led to fan outrage and complaints by veteran IFs David Freese and Josh Harrison? It’ll be on veteran manager Clint Hurdle to not let this ship hit the chaos iceberg.
How it’ll go down: Poorly. The Pirates will sink to the bottom of the division and continue cleaning house from their 2013-15 run of success, with Harrison and others getting their wish to go elsewhere. PNC Park, one of the industry’s best stadiums, will feel more like a library than a sporting venue.
NL West
1. Dodgers
O/U wins: 96 ¹/₂
Key player: 1B Cody Bellinger. He energized the lineup when he came up from Triple-A last April, pure gold found in the fourth round of 2013 draft, as he hit 39 home runs and drove in 97 over 132 games. If he has a sophomore slump the offense could suffer, and don’t forget Astros completely overmatched his HR launch-angle swing in the World Series (a .143/.172/.393 slash line).
Player who’ll need to step up: Any reliever not named Kenley Jansen. Dave Roberts acknowledged at the end of spring training that the bullpen picture is still “a little fuzzy.” Tony Watson and Brandon Morrow were lost to free agency. Tom Koehler signed but now has a shoulder injury. With Dodgers front office pulling so many bullpen strings, this area must be cleaned up.
Name you’ll get to know: LHP Scott Alexander. Regarding those bullpen concerns this is one of the few changes on the World Series roster, the sinkerball specialist could emerge as the second-best reliever on the staff.
Biggest question mark: OF Matt Kemp. The Dodgers acquired — reacquired — the former All-Star merely as the take-back in a salary dump that got them under the luxury-tax threshold. The expectation was that they would move Kemp’s contract elsewhere. But he’s still here and figures to be their primary left fielder — as long as he stays healthy and motivated. Hollywood loves sequels.
How it’ll go down: Dodgers still have a motivated Clayton Kershaw and will win their sixth consecutive division title and go into the postseason as one of the favorites. Only one NL pennant winner has repeated in the past 20 years — the 2009 Phillies — so this could be difficult. Justin Turner’s broken left wrist adds intrigue as Logan Forsythe moves to third and Chase Utley (he never goes away) and Enrique Hernandez will split time at second until Turner returns.
2. Rockies
O/U wins: 82
Key player: 3B Nolan Arenado carries the load. Analytic devotees may underrate him, but he has a month less than five years of service time and has won five Gold Gloves, voted on by coaches and managers, and three Silver Sluggers, voted on by coaches and managers. His inner drive is fierce and he wants to play every inning of every game.
Player who’ll need to step up: RF Carlos Gonzalez returned off the free-agent market, signing a one-year deal. His arrival in the clubhouse was met by an ovation from teammates. He needs to reassert himself as a big factor in the lineup after last season’s .262/.339/.423 slash line. When he hits like he can hit, the left-right-left-right alignment of Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Cargo and Arenado can dominate.
Name you’ll get to know: OF David Dahl will start year in Triple-A and after an 0-for-15 start to spring has come on strong, showing the call-up in final two months of 2016 (.315/.359/.500) was no fluke. He suffered a lost season in 2017 battling a stress reaction in his rib cage and never spent a day in the big leagues. He did not swing a bat from July 29 until mid-January.
Biggest question mark: Ian Desmond had been on the DL only once in his career before last year when he was sidelined three times. He’ll move to first base, but the Rockies aren’t looking for miracles. His normal production is perfect for them, particularly with his clubhouse influence. Former first-round pick Ryan McMahon is ready, pushing Desmond, and had a spring that underscored to management he is going to be an impact player.
How it’ll go down: This tough division isn’t going to get both wild cards this year. The Rockies have a strong lineup with impact bats. They have a young rotation — Chad Bettis is the old man and he turns 29 in late April — but it was tested and had the answers last year. They reinforced a bullpen with new closer Wade Davis and Bryan Shaw, which takes pressure off the rotation, always a good idea in the rarified air of Coors Field.
3. Diamondbacks
O/U wins: 85 ¹/₂
Key player: Paul Goldschmidt is a hitting marvel at first base and in four of the past five years he has played at least 155 games. Last season he hit 36 home runs, drove in 120 and took 94 walks, that’s how you wind up with an impressive slash line of .297/.404/.563. A joy to watch.
Player who’ll need to step up: Arizona lost J.D. Martinez to Red Sox so it traded for OF Steven Souza Jr. He will not come close to matching Martinez’s power numbers, but Souza does bring a certain amount of intensity to the game. Getting away from Tampa Bay should help his production, though he’ll be out until May with a pectoral injury suffered late in spring training.
Name you’ll get to know: The back end of the bullpen is a major issue for the Diamondbacks and Yoshihisa Hirano will get the opportunity to play a key role there after pitching eight seasons in Japan, where he compiled 156 saves.
Biggest question mark: RHP Zack Greinke. With the emergence of young lefty Robbie Ray, who does have some command issues, Greinke does not have to be the ace of staff even though he is being paid crazy money, getting $34 million this year. A groin injury slowed his spring and his velocity was down as well. Questions about health, velocity and durability are no way to go into a season.
How it’ll go down: Two years ago the Diamondbacks lost 93 games. Last year they won 93, then captured an incredible 11-8 wild-card victory over the Rockies before losing three straight to Dodgers. With the loss of Martinez they are not nearly as good an offensive team as they were the previous season. Expect a slip in the standings because this is one monster division.
4. Padres
O/U wins: 69 ¹/₂
Key player: 1B Eric Hosmer. The Padres handed him a seven-year, $144 million deal — the largest contract in franchise history. They think he can bring his championship-pedigree leadership skills to the clubhouse and do for their young players what he did for Royals. Just 28, he’s still got several prime years left on the field.
Player who’ll need to step up: Wil Myers. Hosmer’s contract usurped the one handed to Myers in January 2017. Coming off All-Star campaign in ’16, he had stretches of inconsistency despite a career-high 30 HRs with a stat line that paralleled previous season. He returns to corner a OF spot after playing 1B past two seasons.
Name you’ll get to know: CF Manuel Margot. Only 23, he came over in Craig Kimbrel trade. Look for him to build on admirable freshman campaign that earned him a sixth-place NL ROY finish. Keep eye on INF Fernando Tatis Jr., but he’ll probably start at Double-A. Only 19, he’s rated the No. 1 prospect in the organization.
Biggest question mark: That rotation. Clayton Richard is Opening Day starter for God’s sake. Ex-Yankee Bryan Mitchell likely is No. 2. Then there are “back-again” Pads Tyson Ross and Chris Young. There is promise in young arms Dinelson Lamet and Luis Perdomo. Should have some viable depth in upper-minors prospects in Cal Quantrill, Eric Lauer, Joey Lucchesi — if/when needed.
How it’ll go down: Additions of Hosmer, 3B Chase Headley and SS Freddy Galvis bolster lineup that includes Myers, Margot and highly regarded defensive backstop Austin Hedges. Matt Stairs returns to San Diego as hitting coach. Look for Andy Green to play hand of platoon options. Bullpen should be solid with frequently sought-after lefty Brad Hand assuming closing duties. Can starting pitchers keep games competitive before handing ball over to pen? If so, Pads will eclipse expectations.
5. Giants
O/U wins: 81 ¹/₂
Key player: Closer Mark Melancon. The first year of four-year, $62 million deal was awful in every aspect, with struggles and injuries. Turns out he had to have forearm surgery in September because tissue in the muscle was dying off. He must prove he’s right after only 32 appearances and 11 saves.
Player who’ll need to step up: Other than C Buster Posey it was a down year for nearly everyone. Posey’s power numbers dipped as well with only 12 home runs, but let’s go with OF Hunter Pence, who managed a slash line of .260/.315/.385 with only 13 home runs. His unorthodox swing didn’t work.
Name you’ll get to know: CF Steven Duggar, with good speed and defense, could wind up in platoon with Austin Jackson, either when the season opens or eventually. Giants never draft/develop OFs but this could be one and they need an infusion of youth.
Biggest question mark: With LHP Madison Bumgarner breaking his pitching hand at the end of spring training they have no chance. Coupled with the news Jeff Samardzija is out five weeks with a strained pectoral muscle, the rotation is hopeless. Management got no one new (except Derek Holland as possible swing man) so it’s Johnny Cueto and then unproven Chris Stratton and Ty Blach and rookies Tyler Beede and Andrew Suarez.
How it’ll go down: With additions of veteran stars Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen, the Giants thought they would be better than last year, when they lost NL-most 98 games. The rotation is a lost cause, though, with the loss of a legend in Bumgarner for second straight year and a workhorse in Samardzija. At some point after winning three World Series in five seasons from 2010 to 2015, life catches up.