Gov. Rick Scott starts as the favorite for the Republican nomination to challenge U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., if he opts for a Senate bid in 2018.
Saint Leo University released a poll showing Scott takes 41 percent of Florida Republicans while 33 percent are undecided. But a third of Republicans--33 percent--remain undecided on who they want to take on Nelson in 2018.
Outgoing U.S. Rep. David Jolly, R-Fla., pulls 6 percent in the poll. Jolly had been a Senate candidate this year but he bowed out of the race once U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., decided at the last moment to run for a second term. After the latest round of redistricting, Jolly faced a far more Democratic district in November and lost out to former Gov. Charlie Crist in the general election.
Other potential Republican Senate candidates pull less than 3 percent in the poll. These include U.S. Rep. Tom Rooney, R-Fla., and two previous candidates who, like Jolly, scuttled their Senate bids after Rubio decided to run again: U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, R-Fla., and Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera. Another 11 percent of Republicans said they wanted “someone else” to run.
“Clearly Rick Scott is benefiting from the fact that he is the most well-known of the Republicans seeking to unseat Bill Nelson,” said Saint Leo University Polling Institute Director Frank Orlando on Thursday. “When facing off against the candidates who sought the GOP nomination before Marco Rubio decided to run for re-election, he’s dominating against candidates that have a lot of catching up to do in terms of name identification.”
But the poll shows Nelson in solid shape if he runs for a fourth term with 52 percent of all voters approving of him while 25 disapprove of his performance in the Senate while 23 percent are not sure. While 17 percent of those surveyed see Nelson as very favorable, 9 percent see him as very unfavorable.
Despite those numbers, Orlando offered a warning for Nelson.
“Bill Nelson remains relatively popular, but in this era, all politics are becoming national,” said Orlando. “His reelection effort will certainly be affected by the climate in 2018. Democrats have to play defense in many states that Donald Trump won, with the Sunshine State being foremost among them.”
The poll of 501 Florida voters was taken from Nov. 27 through Nov. 30 and had a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent.
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