If the presence of greater amounts of economic data was a benefit for bond markets on Wednesday (and we're not sure that it was), then Thursday has even greater potential to confirm or reject that potential correlation.  The benefit of Wednesday's economic data can be questioned because bond markets nearly had a melt-down heading into the PM hours, and they weren't saved by data.  MBS and Treasuries both caught solid technical support as they revisited their weakest levels from the previous session.  For the first time in 9 sessions, MBS did NOT make a new low (even though that seemed like a probability on several occasions)!

That's all well and good, but will it continue to be the case today?  That depends more on data today than it did yesterday.  Yesterday's data didn't really have the same street cred that some of today's reports have.  The weakest link is CPI; not expecting much there, and Housing Starts are only slightly more capable of shaking things up, but at least that series has some recent experience with such a thing.  The bigger mover in the 8:30am slot is, of course, Jobless Claims (especially since it's a "survey week" for the next jobs report).  

Then at 10am, the Philly Fed Index stands as the second most likely suspect to shake things up or help reinforce yesterday's support.  Before making much headway in the other direction, bond markets will have to take out resistance levels that were at least as ominous as the floors were firm, if not more so.  10yr yields, for instance, have to cross this gap, and hold it:

If that's accomplished, it becomes increasingly likely that we've seen the extremes of the trading range heading in to next week's FOMC Minutes.

MBS Live Econ Calendar:

Week Of Mon, May 13 2013 - Fri, May 17 2013

Time

Event

Period

Unit

Forecast

Prior

Mon, May 13

08:30

Retail sales mm

Apr

%

-0.2

-0.4

10:00

Business inventories mm

Mar

%

0.2

0.1

Tue, May 14

08:30

Export prices mm

Apr

%

-0.1

-0.4

08:30

Import prices mm

Apr

%

-0.5

-0.5

Wed, May 15

07:00

Mortgage market index

w/e

--

--

945.5

08:30

Producer prices mm

Apr

%

-0.6

-0.6

08:30

NY Fed manufacturing

May

--

4.00

3.05

09:15

Industrial output mm

Apr

%

-0.1

0.4

09:15

Capacity utilization mm

Apr

%

78.4

78.5

10:00

NAHB housing market indx

May

--

43

42

Thu, May 16

08:30

CPI mm, sa

Apr

%

-0.2

-0.2

08:30

House starts mm: change

Apr

%

--

7.0

08:30

Build permits: change mm

Apr

%

--

-3.4

08:30

Housing starts number mm

Apr

ml

0.978

1.036

08:30

Building permits: number

Apr

ml

0.950

0.907

10:00

Philly Fed Business Index

May

--

2.5

1.3

Fri, May 17

09:55

U.Mich sentiment

May

--

77.9

76.4

10:00

Leading index chg mm

Apr

%

0.3

-0.1

* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in "period" column indicates a weekly report

* Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary Release | Fin: Final Release

* (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted

* PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index"