The bulk of the NFL offseason is behind us, and rosters are pretty much set for the 2019 season.
That means there’s a much clearer picture than the last time we did this of what the year ahead could look like for teams, even with training camps, preseason games, injuries and roster cuts on the horizon in August.
So, as usual, we had our NFL betting experts Steven Ruiz and Charles Curtis look over the updated win totals for every team and make their picks to help you figure out which squads to bet on.
(All win totals courtesy of PointsBet)
Patriots: 11.0 Wins
Steven: Over
The Patriots losing Gronk gives me some pause, but this is Bill Belichick and Tom Brady we’re talking about. As long as those two are here, I’m taking the Patriots over every time.
Charles: Over
The Pats won 11 games last year, but that was the first time they were under 12 victories since 2009. So, yeah, I’m taking the over with confidence.
Saints: 10.5 Wins
Steven: Over
I can envision a scenario in which Drew Brees starts to decline and injuries cripple the Saints defense enough to keep this team out of the playoffs. But there’s too much talent on the roster for New Orleans to finish below 11 wins.
Charles: Over
The Saints are built to win the NFC and arguably have the most balanced roster in the conference on both sides of the ball. Another 13-win season isn’t out of the question.
Chiefs: 10.5 Wins
Steven: Under
I’m going to bet that the Chiefs end up losing Tyreek Hill for an extended period of time, which will have a dramatic effect on Kansas City’s offense. The defense might be worse off than it was a year ago. Andy Reid will have his team in the playoffs, but it will have to take the Wild Card route this time.
Charles: Under
There’s too much to be concerned about here — a regression to the mean to an extent for Patrick Mahomes, and what Steven said about Hill’s possible suspension. Plus, the Chargers won 12 games last year and look about the same.
Rams: 10.5 Wins
Steven: Over
Todd Gurley’s knee is a mess, but that’s not enough to scare me off the Rams. I liked their draft and they haven’t lost too much talent following their Super Bowl loss. This team is going to score a lot of points — no matter who’s starting at running back — and Wade Phillips will have the defense playing at a high level.
Charles: Over
I don’t think they win 13 games again, but what’s changed since the Super Bowl loss? Not a ton except for Ndamukong Suh leaving and Clay Matthews and Eric Weddle signing. That will be good enough to win the NFC West again.
Eagles: 10.0 Wins
Steven: Over
The Eagles are stacked on both sides of the ball, and they are due for some better injury luck after these last two seasons. Carson Wentz stays healthy, and Philly wins the NFC East with 11 wins.
Charles: Over
I agree with Steven thus far (don’t worry, that’ll change) and especially here — with Wentz back, Philly will best the Cowboys and win the East.
Bears: 9.5 Wins
Steven: Under
There are just so many reasons to fade the Bears: The defense is due for regression, Vic Fangio is gone and the Bears were tremendously lucky in the injury department a year ago which isn’t likely to happen again. Chicago will be this year’s Jacksonville.
Charles: Over
I’ll say they eek out 10 wins with Mitchell Trubisky taking another step forward and Khalil Mack having another great season. But I’ll say I’m nervous about the Packers and Vikings rebounding.
Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Packers: 9.5 Wins
Steven: Over
This really comes down to Aaron Rodgers’ ability to stay healthy. If he plays 16 games, Green Bay is my favorite to take the NFC North. I’ll bet he does and take the over.
Charles: Under
It’s not Rodgers I’m worried about. It’s that defense, even with the Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith additions in free agency. So maybe this is a nine-win team that will be in the hunt for a Wild Card spot, but I’m not betting on the over here.
Chargers: 9.5 Wins
Steven: Over
If the Chiefs take a step back, another team in the AFC West has to take one forward. That will be the Chargers. There isn’t really a glaring weakness on this team. Philip Rivers will have an MVP-type year for a 12-win Chargers team.
Charles: Over
As I said, Los Angeles will be right there with the Chiefs in 2019 as they were last season. And the biggest offseason addition will be … Hunter Henry! Having the tight end back as another Rivers red zone option will be huge.
Colts: 9.5 Wins
Steven: Over
The Colts front office just gets it. Without spending too much money this offseason, the Colts got a lot better while maintaining a playoff roster. The Justin Houston signing could push the defense into the top-10, and I fully expect Andrew Luck to be even better than he was in 2018.
Charles: Over
This seems low to me. The Colts won 10 games last year and their defense — which was good last year — just got a massive upgrade. I would think this would be more like 10.5, so I’ll take advantage and bet the over.
Vikings: 9.0 Wins
Steven: Over
The Vikings have fixed their offensive line and the defense should be healthier (and better) in 2019. Minnesota will have to settle for second in the NFC North but they’ll make the playoffs comfortably.
Charles: Over
This is so close for me — on paper, they should win 10 games. But the division is so tight. I’ll say talent wins out here.
(Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
Browns: 9.0 Wins
Steven: Under
The Browns are loaded with star power at the right positions, but the offensive line is a red flag. Austin Corbett doesn’t appear ready to replace Kevin Zeitler and Cleveland curiously did nothing to improve at the tackle position. Baker Mayfield could be under siege in 2019. Throw in an inexperienced coaching staff and I’ll take the under.
Charles: Over
Look, sometimes betting is about rooting for something you wouldn’t normally have interest in. Can’t we all just root for the Browns to make their first postseason since 2002 (!) by betting on them? Are they better than the Ravens and Steelers? Probably not, but weirder things have happened!
Cowboys: 9.0 Wins
Steven: Under
The Cowboys won’t be any worse than they were a season ago, but the rest of the NFC East has closed some ground this offseason. Well, not the Giants, but still. That will be enough to bring the Cowboys under 9 wins.
Charles: Push
My first push of the post! They’re totally a nine-win team, but maybe the defense takes a step back and they’re at .500 by season’s end.
Seahawks: 9.0 Wins
Steven: Under
While I do believe the Seahawks have the talent to compete for a division title, I just don’t trust Brian Schottenheimer to get the most out of the offense. The defense was overly reliant on turnovers last season, which is an unsustainable model.
Charles: Over
This is totally based on Russell Wilson continuing to do Russell Wilson things in spite of Schottenheimer.
Falcons: 9.0 Wins
Steven: Over
After investing in the offensive line during the offseason, Atlanta has shored up the one problem spot on the offense and the defense has to be better than it was a season ago, right?
Charles: Under
I’m a little worried about two first-rounders on the offensive line, concerned about the backfield, fearful about what we saw out of the defense last season … you get the picture? Under.
Steelers: 9.0 Wins
Steven: Under
The Steelers should be able to overcome the loss of Le’Veon Bell but Antonio Brown’s departure will have a domino effect on the receiver corps, which has made Ben Roethlisberger’s job easier over the last few seasons. That won’t happen in 2019.
Charles: Under
They’re probably a nine-win team, but I think some of the turmoil from last season will carry over, and like Steven said, the WRs beyond JuJu Smith-Schuster are a concern.
Texans: 8.5 Wins
Steven: Under
The rest of the division should be better and there are injury concerns all over the Texans roster. Houston falls back down to seven wins, which costs Bill O’Brien his job.
Charles: Over
They may not win the AFC South again, but I don’t think this team goes from 11 wins to 8.
Ravens: 8.5 Wins
Steven: Over
Even after the Ravens lost a lot of veteran talent, this roster is still good enough to make a run at the playoffs. Especially if Lamar Jackson takes the step I expect him to take this season.
Charles: Under
The Ravens always seem to find a way to win games, but here’s my problem: Is the defense really good enough? Who is Jackson throwing to? That’s enough for me to worry.
Titans: 8.0 Wins
Steven: Under
I just don’t have enough confidence in the either Marcus Mariota or Ryan Tannehill to pick the Titans to win nine games. The rest of the roster is solid but there’s not enough here to make up for the quarterback situation.
Charles: Under
It’s so frustrating that the Titans haven’t truly broken through with Mariota, and I don’t see it happening in 2019 either, especially in this division.
(AP Photo/Tony Avelar)
49ers: 8.0 Wins
Steven: Under
I don’t think the 49ers’ offseason moves will be enough to fix the defense. The offense should be a lot better with a healthy Jimmy G but the NFC West will be brutal in 2019. A 7-9 season sounds about right.
Charles: Under
Having Jimmy Garoppolo back is great. But is it five wins great? I’ll wait another year before anointing the Niners a playoff team, especially with the Rams, Seahawks and Kyler Murray’s Cardinals in the division.
Jaguars: 8.0 Wins
Steven: Under
Nick Foles is not the answer to the Jaguars’ problems. Even if the defense is back playing at its 2017 form — which wasn’t that much better than its 2018 form — Jacksonville is going to have a hard time keeping up in the AFC South.
Charles: Under
There is NO WAY I’m betting on nine wins from Foles. NOPE.
Panthers: 7.5 Wins
Steven: Over
Cam Newton looks healthy. The defensive front has been rebuilt. The offensive line might not be a disaster. As long as Carolina stays healthy, it will be in the NFC South race all season.
Charles: Over
I’m uneasy about this pick, but after shoulder surgery, Newton seems good to go. I think they’re good enough to be second in the division, so eight wins
Bills: 7.0 Wins
Steven: Push
This is a cowardly pick, but Buffalo is too well coached to finish at 6-10 and there’s still not enough offensive talent for this team get to .500.
Charles: Under
I think they’re back to six wins despite a really talented defense. Playing in a division with the Patriots doesn’t help and this team needs a franchise receiver desperately.
(AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
Jets: 7.0 Wins
Steven: Under
Sam Darnold looks like a legit franchise QB in the making, but the Jets are spending too much money in positions that don’t have much of an impact on the game. I’m fading the Jets.
Charles: Under
Le’Veon Bell will help and Darnold will take another step forward. But I just can’t get past the fact that there are glaring holes on defense and the fact that they’re the Jets. So I’ll say they end up with six wins.
Broncos: 7.0 Wins
Steven: Over
No, Joe Flacco isn’t a long term answer, but he could be a good fit for the Broncos’ new offense (relatively speaking, that is), and Vic Fangio has the pieces to produce a top-five defense. Denver won’t challenge for a playoff spot, but this looks like a .500 team.
Charles: Under
The defense is still spectacular, but is Flacco worth two wins to push them to the over? I think they’ll fall just short.
Redskins: 6.5 Wins
Steven: Over
The Redskins were cruising toward a playoff berth before injuries took out the entire offensive and then Alex Smith. With some more injury luck, Washington will be a competitive team. A 7-9 finish might even be seen as a letdown by season’s end.
Charles: Under
Am I really going to bet on seven wins from Case Keenum, Colt McCoy and Dwayne Haskins? That makes me way too nervous even though there’s a lot of talent up and down the Redskins’ roster.
Buccaneers: 6.5 Wins
Steven: Over
Bruce Arians will have no problem turning the Bucs’ impressive collection of skill players into a .500 team. I’m expecting big things from Jameis Winston in this offense. As long as the defense isn’t a complete disaster, seven wins is doable.
Charles: Over
This is all about Arians. The offense looks like it can finally get on the same page (fantasy owners: I’m all in on Chris Godwin) and I think the defense can bend but not break. But it’s Arians who is the X-factor to get them over the hump and win at least seven.
Lions: 6.5 Wins
Steven: Under
I actually like the Lions a lot, but the NFC North is going to be really good. One of these teams has to lose a bunch of games. Detroit is the best bet.
Charles: Under
The defense is too much of a concern to give them more than six wins.
Bengals: 6.0 Wins
Steven: Over
I know a lot of people are way down on the Bengals, but there’s a decent amount of talent on this roster, and I don’t think the AFC North will be as tough as everyone expects it to be. Cincy can win six games.
Charles: Under
This is the year it starts to all fall apart for the Bengals. Plus, if I’m taking the over on the Browns, I have to declare this is the team who finishes last again in the division.
Giants: 6.0 Wins
Steven: Under
Dave Gettleman isn’t doing a very good job of building this team. That will show in 2019, which will be his last year in charge of the front office if the Giants are as awful as many pundits expect them to be.
Charles: Under
Ughhhh this team is so bad. Why isn’t this over/under lower? This might be the easiest bet of them all!
Raiders: 6.0 Wins
Steven: Push
The Raiders won’t be good, but they’ll score enough points to hover around .500 early before tailing off late in the season.
Charles: Under
The final season in Oakland is a bad one as locker room drama — starting in training camp as Hard Knocks cameras capture it — overtakes the Raiders and leaves them with just four wins.
Cardinals: 5.0 Wins
Steven: Over
I’m really high on Kliff Kingsbury’s offensive approach. The Cardinals are going to score enough points to hover around .500, and the defense should be solid after a quietly good offseason.
Charles: Push
I like this team a lot on paper — their defense actually features a lot of top-end talent. I just don’t know if Murray and Kingsbury can win more than five games, especially in the NFC West.
Dolphins: 4.5 Wins
Steven: Under
I don’t even think the Dolphins are trying to win games in 2019. Josh Rosen will make Miami worth watching, but this team is still a season away from being competitive.
Charles: Under
Here’s your nominee for next year’s first overall pick.
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