Will California Chrome win the Belmont Stakes and complete thoroughbred racing’s first Triple Crown sweep since 1978? Horse-racing fans, some rooting for history and some hoping to cash a bet against the Belmont’s heavy favorite, have been arguing about the California-bred colt’s chances since his convincing victories in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness.
Will Chrome’s win streak be stopped by the same factors that frustrated the past 12 horses to go into the Belmont with a chance at the Triple Crown? Do he and jockey Victor Espinoza have qualities that his predecessors lacked? Are any of his 10 opponents in New York on Saturday good enough to beat him? Writers Art Wilson and Kevin Modesti debated the questions in an e-mail exchange.
ART WILSON: Kevin, sometimes you can’t fight fate. Combine fate with an enormous amount of talent and you have California Chrome winning the Triple Crown. This is just too good a story to have an unhappy ending. One of the colt’s owners, Steve Coburn, celebrated his birthday on Kentucky Derby Day. Coburn’s sister died of cancer when she was 36. It’s been 36 years since the last Triple Crown winner. Now try to tell me Chrome’s not destined to finish this thing off. Add the fact he’s won three Grade I stakes this spring — Wicked Strong is the only other Belmont starter who’s won even one — and you can see Chrome is by far the cream of the 2014 crop of 3-year-olds. Not even close. Skeptics say he won’t withstand the Belmont’s 1 1/2-mile distance, that Preakness runner-up Ride On Curlin was gaining in the stretch. Let me tell you, Ride On Curlin was not passing Chrome if they’d gone around two more times. Polish that Triple Crown trophy because we’re going to celebrate a 12th champion Saturday.
KEVIN MODESTI: Art, if fate decided horse races, why do you and I spend all that money on Racing Forms? It says here that races — even historic ones like this Belmont Stakes — are decided by things like speed, condition, pace, horses’ affinity for distance and surface, and jockeys’ whims. I’ll grant you that California Chrome is the best 3-year-old of 2014 and the likeliest winner among the 11 horses in the Belmont. But example after example shows how hard it is for even the best horse to sweep the Triple Crown, and gives us some idea of the very real reasons why. In any year, the Belmont is a notoriously upset-prone race, probably because it’s hard to tell which horses will take to a distance for which few have the breeding or experience. Chrome’s morning-line odds of 3-5 would make too unattractive a bet for me not to consider alternatives. It must be possible to both bet against America’s Horse AND root for him to win if I don’t.
WILSON: I agree any race is decided by the factors you mention, which only strengthens my case. California Chrome is the fastest and most versatile horse in this race. Not even close. In fact, Chrome’s versatility is one major ingredient why he’s so tough to beat. Jockey Victor Espinoza has the option of setting the pace or sitting second or third and just biding his time, a luxury the riders for closers like Ride On Curlin and Commanding Curve don’t have. They need clean trips with dirt flying back in their faces, and oftentimes that’s not a given in 11-horse fields. There doesn’t appear to be a lot of early speed in this race and I wouldn’t be surprised if California Chrome took a page from his San Felipe Stakes book and took this field gate to wire. I don’t like 3-5 either, but it’s a better return than you’ll find at most banks. I’d rather go to the window and collect my $3.20 than watch my bankroll dwindle by betting on a horse that hasn’t accomplished half of what Chrome has done.
MODESTI: I don’t have to tell you that handicapping is only partly about assessing what horses have done in the past, and mostly about weighing the likely effects of new circumstances. (Art, your knack for picking up-and-coming horses to knock off vulnerable favorites is probably why you lead the Los Angeles News Group handicappers in total payoffs at Santa Anita this season.) And no new circumstance is newer than the one presented by the Belmont, the only 1 1/2-mile, dirt-track race any of these horses will run in his life. Virtually EVERY Triple Crown hopeful comes into the Belmont with a big edge in accomplishment. Not to belabor the distance question, but I can’t resist this stat: Of the past 11 recent horses denied the Triple Crown in the Belmont, 10 lost ground in the final quarter-mile, including five who led going into the last quarter. My premise is that it’s harder than people think to be the best at every distance from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/2 miles. By the way, I’ll give you my pick for Saturday anytime you want it. Hint: It’s none of the horses you’ve mentioned so far.
WILSON: Believe me Kevin, I try to beat the favorite whenever I can. But I also don’t like losing money, which is what I believe will be the end result if you bet against Chrome. The key to the Belmont will be the break. Forget about the 1 1/2-mile track, the three-races-in-five-weeks thing, or any other factors. The one chink in Chrome’s armor could be his inability to break alertly at times. It cost him in a cheaper stakes race at Santa Anita last fall, but Espinoza’s been down this road before. He was aboard War Emblem in 2002 when the Bob Baffert trainee nearly went to his knees at the start of the Belmont, costing him all chance at the Triple Crown. I agree with what Baffert told Santa Anita publicity earlier this week. “A clean break and it’s over,” Baffert said. “That’s it. With a clean break, he’s way better than all the other horses.” He’s right. With the exception of a quartet that’s mostly untested in Grade I waters — Tonalist, Commissioner, Matterhorn, and Matuszak — he’s already beaten these horses. Soundly.
MODESTI: I like Tonalist. He came back from illness to score a sharp 1 1/8-mile win at Belmont Park, admittedly on a sloppy track, and has the pedigree for longer. After only four starts, he may be under-seasoned for a classic race, but he also may have not-yet-seen dimensions. All of the other would-be spoilers either have been thumped by California Chrome already — with excuses of varying validity — or just look too slow. I’ll go with Tonalist (8-1 on the morning line), California Chrome (3-5), Wicked Strong (6-1) and General a Rod (20-1).
WILSON: I look for California Chrome to possibly go gate to wire or sit no worse than second and make his customary move when Espinoza feels the time is right. I like Tonalist but not his No. 11 post position. The only other horse in the field that remotely intrigues me is Wicked Strong, who ran a credible fourth in the Derby despite a troubled trip after winning the Wood Memorial. He figures to be closer to the pace than either Ride On Curlin and/or Commanding Curve and can close to get a piece. I’ll go with a California Chrome/Wicked Strong exacta and that’s it. Not going to bet a ton of cash with such a heavy favorite. I’ll just sit back and watch a bit of history.
MODESTI: So we do have some areas of agreement. Actually, even our disagreement about California Chrome isn’t black-and-white. I’ve enjoyed his six-race winning streak as much as you have, and I expect him to run well in the Belmont. I just rate his chances of winning this race a little lower than you do. The past 35 years show what a challenge the Triple Crown presents. If Chrome completes it, well, I can’t think of a better way to lose a bet.
Art Wilson covers horse racing for the Los Angeles News Group. Kevin Modesti, a LANG editorial writer, covered horse racing from 1991 to 2007.
