Virginia vs. Virginia Tech odds, line: College basketball picks, predictions from advanced model on 16-8 roll

Nothing is ever easy in the Atlantic Coast Conference, especially when a pair of top-25 heavyweights square off. Virginia Tech (20-5, 9-4) hosts No. 3 Virginia (22-2, 10-2) Monday as both teams vie for positioning for the upcoming conference and NCAA tournaments. Tip-off from Cassell Coliseum is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. Virginia is 7-1 on the road but the Hokies will be out to avenge an 81-59 loss to the Cavaliers on Jan. 15. The Cavaliers are five-point favorites in the latest Virginia vs. Virginia Tech odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 120. You'll want to see what the SportsLine Projection Model is saying about the game before laying any Virginia vs. Virginia Tech picks down of your own.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks. Over the past two years, the SportsLine Projection Model has returned over $5,200 to $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks. It also entered Week 16 of the 2018-19 college basketball season on a blistering 16-8 run on top-rated college basketball side picks either against the spread or on the money line. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now the model has dialed in on the Virginia vs. Virginia Tech spread. We can tell you it is leaning over, and it has a strong against-the-spread pick that cashes in nearly 60 percent of simulations. That one is only available at SportsLine.

Virginia has been dominant this season with its only losses coming against Duke, by two and 10 points. The Cavaliers are in the top 10 in several statistical categories as well, including fewest turnovers (first at 9.2), scoring defense (first at 54.1), 3-point field goal defense (second at 26.7), scoring margin (third at plus-18.2), fewest fouls (fourth at 15.1), field goal percentage defense (fifth at 37.8) and assist turnover ratio (sixth at 1.57).

Virginia is led by Kyle Guy (15.1 ppg), a junior guard, who has been red hot. He's bettered his average in each of the past three games, including 22 points Saturday against Notre Dame. Junior guard Ty Jerome (13 ppg) has also played well of late, scoring above his average in two of the past three games. He also scored 14 points against the Hokies in January. Plus, the Cavaliers have dominated this in-state rivalry, winning 11 of their last 14 games against the Hokies.

But just because the Cavaliers have dominated this series doesn't mean they'll win or even cover the Virginia vs. Virginia Tech spread on Monday.

Virginia Tech is 12-1 on its home floor with the only loss coming Feb. 4 versus Louisville. The Hokies are seventh in the nation in scoring defense, allowing 60.7 ppg, and are 11th in scoring margin at plus-14.6. Virginia Tech has won four of six.

The Hokies are led by sophomore guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker (16.9 ppg), who scored 19 points in the January meeting. He has equaled or surpassed his average in six of the past 10 games. Senior guard Ty Outlaw (8.5 ppg) has been Virginia Tech's catalyst the past two weeks, averaging 12.3 ppg in the past four games, including 20 points against Georgia Tech on Wednesday.

So who wins Virginia vs. Virginia Tech? And which side of the spread can you bank on in nearly 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Virginia vs. Virginia Tech spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $5,200 on its college basketball picks the past two years, and find out.