Each Non-NBA Playoff Team's Key Offseason Decision

Zach Buckley@@ZachBuckleyNBAX.com LogoNational NBA Featured ColumnistApril 20, 2018

Each Non-NBA Playoff Team's Key Offseason Decision

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    While most of the hoops world is hypnotized by the 2018 NBA playoffs, nearly half of the Association is already a week-plus into the summer break.

    Well, maybe break isn't the right word. Once a club's campaign closes and attention fully shifts to the offseason, it gets busy adjusting draft boards, scouting potential free-agency targets, identifying possible trade routes and assessing personnel on the home front.

    These efforts have been ongoing all season—and they're also being undertaken by certain members of playoff participants—but this is when it takes center stage. There are coaching calls to be made, free-agency values to be calculated and draft stocks to move up or down.

    While every lottery-bound club has the same goal (joining the postseason party), each has differing timelines and resources. So, let's examine the biggest offseason decision awaiting all 14 of this year's non-playoff teams.

Atlanta Hawks: Is Mike Budenholzer Staying or Going?

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    Nick Wass/Associated Press

    These are no longer the Atlanta Hawks that Mike Budenholzer was hired to coach in 2013. That team was an annual playoff participant aiming to shatter its second-round ceiling. This group is glad to be in the lottery as it stockpiles assets for a potentially lengthy rebuild.

    So, it's not super-surprising to see Budenholzer linked to other gigs, even though his contract has two years left for this one. In fact, Atlanta allowed the Arizona native to meet with the Phoenix Suns about its coaching vacancy, per ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, who added the Hawks and Budenholzer "are both open to ending their partnership."

    Budenholzer lost front-office control to Hawks general manager Travis Schlenk last summer. Could an outright exit be next? It seems possible. Schlenk might want his own coach in place, and next year will be a pivotal season in terms of prospect development.

    Then again, Budenholzer is a good coach—ESPN ranked him 11th last month—with time and money left on his deal. Atlanta should want him back, as long as he wants to return. The in-season growth of John Collins and Taurean Prince hints at the type of impact Budenholzer could have on the Hawks' next batch of youngsters.

Brooklyn Nets: Solving the Point Guard Logjam

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    D'Angelo Russell was the highest-scoring point guard the Brooklyn Nets had this season. Spencer Dinwiddie was their top distributor. Jeremy Lin was the highest-paid of the three, which he'll be again in 2018-19.

    That is, if the Nets plan on keeping this three-headed monster intact.

    "Strong point versus glut, that's a conversation for Sean Marks and Kenny Atkinson," Dinwiddie said, per Brian Lewis of the New York Post.

    The Nets avoided those discussions this season, because Lin was lost to a ruptured patella tendon on opening night. Their initial plan involved pairing Lin and Russell together, while Russell later worked alongside Dinwiddie. But all three of those players work best with the ball in their hands, which might also be true of 23-year-old swingman Caris LeVert.

    If Brooklyn can extract assets in a trade involving one of these point guards—Lin seems most logical to move as the oldest and most expensive—it would be foolish not to explore the option. The potential payoff here is what makes this decision more critical than Joe Harris' free agency or a possible extension for Rondae Hollis-Jefferson.

Charlotte Hornets: Kemba Walker's Future

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    The Charlotte Hornets are trapped in mediocrity's grasp. Since seemingly breaking through with 48 wins in 2015-16, they've had consecutive 46-loss seasons.

    The losing has already led to the ousters of former coach Steve Clifford and former general manager Rich Cho. Kemba Walker could be on the chopping block next. The franchise's all-time leading scorer needs a new deal—and a massive raise—next summer. It sounds like he's already considering a change of address if Charlotte opts for a large-scale rebuild.

    "At this point, I want to win. I want to be in the playoffs," Walker told Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer. "I'm tired of not being in the playoffs. ... I hate watching them on TV."

    While it won't be the most popular move, the Hornets have to at least explore a deal. He's their best trade chip by a mile, good enough perhaps to bring back significant assets and unload some bad money (of which Charlotte has a bunch). It'd be tough to turn down that reward, especially if the Hornets feel there's risk of him walking for nothing in 2019.

Chicago Bulls: Zach LaVine's Extension

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    Bob Leverone/Associated Press

    There were two undeniable aspects of Zach LaVine's season. The first was the presence of rust in his return from an ACL tear, evidenced by a career-worst 38.3 field-goal percentage. The second was that his on-court production didn't necessarily matter, at least not in terms of his future with the Chicago Bulls.

    He'll call the Windy City home for the foreseeable future. That much has been certain since Chicago made him the centerpiece of last summer's Jimmy Butler trade. The question is how much LaVine will collect on his next contract, and it sounds like the Bulls might be willing to let the market set his rate.

    "The market dictates a lot [about] how things can go," executive vice president John Paxson said, per K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune. "I think the market has tightened up a little bit the last couple years since the [salary-cap] spike. But we obviously value Zach a lot, and we think he's a part of our future."

    LaVine isn't the easiest to price. He's a gifted scorer and good outside shooter, but he filled those roles as a support piece in Minnesota. He's also heavily reliant on his otherworldly athleticism, which makes a full ACL recovery paramount to future success. It makes sense for the Bulls to let someone else calculate the value of all this, but it'd be fascinating to see what happens if someone else puts a max offer on the table.

Dallas Mavericks: Finding the Right Center

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    Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

    Tyson Chandler was the last player to successfully fill the Dallas Mavericks' interior void. But they let the defensive anchor walk twice, and they've yet to properly replace him.

    That needs to end this summer. Not only because it remains a glaring issue—only one team allowed a higher shooting percentage at the rim—but also because Dallas has the resources to address it. The top of the draft board is littered with bigs, and the Mavs should be positioned to snag one. They're also among the summer's leaders in cap room, and they sound incentivized to spend.

    "We have the cap room," owner Mark Cuban said, per Eddie Sefko of the Dallas Morning News. "That's why we have it—to use it. There's no reason to save it."

    Dallas could take a long view and build around Dennis Smith Jr. But it probably wants another shot at making a run with Dirk Nowitzki, especially with Harrison Barnes entering or nearing his prime. If the Mavs are in the market for win-now big men, expect them to chase DeMarcus Cousins, Clint Capela (restricted), Brook Lopez, Dewayne Dedmon and Dallas native Julius Randle (restricted).

Denver Nuggets: To Thrill or Not to Thrill

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    Jim Mone/Associated Press

    The Denver Nuggets appear on the cusp of something significant. That should accelerate their biggest offseason move—declining Nikola Jokic's $1.6 million team option, re-signing him to a massive extension and keeping him away from next summer's unrestricted free agency.

    But that's a no-brainer, so it's hard to paint it as a decision. Where things will get interesting, though, is Will Barton's excursion into the open market.

    He logged the most total minutes on the team and held top-five rankings in average points (15.7 per game, fourth), assists (4.1, second) and rebounds (5.0, fifth). He's also become one of the league's best bargains since inking a three-year, $10.6 million deal in 2015. He's played all three perimeter positions for Denver and finished fourth in the 2015-16 Sixth Man of the Year voting.

    "Will and I talked extensively ... about how neat it's been to see him grow," Nuggets president of basketball operations Tim Connelly said, per Gina Mizell of the Denver Post. "And I think that growth process is just beginning, quite frankly. We're hopeful we can get something done. He's our guy. We love him. I think if he's back in a Denver jersey, it's good for both him and the team."

Detroit Pistons: What to Do with Stan Van Gundy

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    Adam Hunger/Associated Press

    The Detroit Pistons' roster underwhelms in just about everything other than cost. Despite having two max-contract players in the frontcourt, an $80 million point guard, a handful of handsomely paid role players and two recent lottery picks, this group has just one playoff berth—which ended with a first-round sweep—to show for Stan Van Gundy's four-year tenure as head coach and president of basketball operations.

    "We're going to make some changes," owner Tom Gores said, per Ansar Khan of MLive.com. "I'm just not sure what they are."

    Will those changes involve Van Gundy? One can argue they should, even if it means keeping him but dropping either the coaching or personnel aspect of his duties.

    His front-office track record looks troubling. No one knows if the Andre Drummond-Blake Griffin frontcourt can work, but the Pistons are spending a ton to figure that out. Reggie Jackson has yet to play up to his $80 million pact, and Jon Leuer looks overpaid on his four-year, $42 million contract. 

    That said, the coaching hasn't been much better. Stanley Johnson's development has stalled, while Henry Ellenson's seemingly hasn't started in two seasons. This season might have been Drummond's best, and the Pistons were 3.4 points better per 100 possessions when he didn't play.

    Van Gundy and Gores will meet next week to discuss Van Gundy's future, per ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.

Los Angeles Clippers: Reload or Rebuild

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    Rich Pedroncelli/Associated Press

    The Los Angeles Clippers pivoted away from Lob City last summer, but they opted for competitiveness over a complete teardown. This will be more of a direction-defining offseason for the franchise, depending on whether Doc Rivers' contract is extended, how many players opt into or out of their deals and what happens on draft night, when they could be holding consecutive lottery picks.

    "There are more things in motion this summer by far than any other summer since I've been the owner," Steve Ballmer said, per Broderick Turner of the Los Angeles Times.

    Rivers is entering his contract's final season and hasn't committed to anything. This year's Clippers were the first club he's coached that didn't make the postseason since the 2006-07 Boston Celtics. He left the Shamrocks, in part, to avoid a rebuild. If that's where he senses L.A. is headed, perhaps he'll work on orchestrating his exit.

    DeAndre Jordan and Austin Rivers lead a handful of guys with player options who will shape the scope and flexibility of the Clippers' free-agent dealings. There are also talks that the organization plans to pursue a trade for Kawhi Leonard, a source told USA Today's Sam Amick, although it's unclear if the San Antonio Spurs are even listening to offers. There are win-now options on the table, but a nuclear teardown seems possible, too.

Los Angeles Lakers: Plan B for Free Agency

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    The Los Angeles Lakers have been a little too transparent about their plans for 2018 free agency. They used the February trade deadline to open a path to two max-contract slots, and they'd love for LeBron James and Paul George to fill them.

    But the interesting decision revolves around plan B. If James and/or George isn't coming, how will the Lakers manage their money? Do they pivot to secondary targets such as DeMarcus Cousins or Jabari Parker? Do they reward Julius Randle with a new deal and keep focusing on the youngsters? Do they grab another round of place holders and shift their sights to 2019?

    "That's the beauty of it," general manager Rob Pelinka told Lee Jenkins of Sports Illustrated. "Whatever the road becomes—Is it two max guys this summer? Is it one this summer and one the next? Is it splitting up the space and just growing this young core?—it's a good road to be on."

    The Lakers are trending upward. Brandon Ingram took a notable step forward as a sophomore. Lonzo Ball stuffed the stat sheet the way few rookies have. Kyle Kuzma looks like the biggest steal in a deep 2017 draft. The defense jumped from disastrous to respectable in a single season.

    The question is: What comes next? James and George are the preferred choices, but there are plenty of other roads to take if those are closed.

Memphis Grizzlies: The Top-5 Pick

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    Lefteris Pitarakis/Associated Press

    With a little luck at the draft lottery, the Memphis Grizzlies could climb to the No. 1 pick. With the least fortune possible, they can fall to the No. 5 selection. Nailing this pick is paramount to the organization's near and long-term futures, as it hasn't made a top-10 choice since 2009 (when it whiffed on Hasheem Thabeet at No. 2).

    It's not just about injecting youth and top-level talent into a team in desperate need of both. It's also this pick's potential to reroute the entire organization. Unless the Grizzlies snag do-it-all swingman Luka Doncic or reach for a perimeter scorer such as Michael Porter Jr. or Trae Young, they'll probably be taking Marc Gasol's replacement.

    "If the Grizzlies can't get Doncic, they should draft one of the bigs, look to trade Gasol and hit the reset button altogether," Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman wrote.

    The top of this draft board is loaded with bigs, and their skill sets run the gamut from offensive focal points (Deandre Ayton and Marvin Bagley III) to defensive anchors (Mohamed Bamba and Jaren Jackson Jr.). Then again, if Doncic is available, Memphis might prefer the fact that he can support the current nucleus and bring star potential of his own.

New York Knicks: Finding Jeff Hornacek's Replacement

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    Ben Margot/Associated Press

    A few words of advice for the next coach of the New York Knicks: Don't lose 104 games in two seasons, as the previous skipper, Jeff Hornacek, did. Do find ways to connect with modern players and accept assistance whenever possible from the staff you assemble.

    "I think Hornacek had the same kind of issue that Phil [Jackson] did in that he didn't grasp how different the players are now in the way they think and deal with management and the coaches," Knicks owner James Dolan said, per Larry Brooks of the New York Post. "I think he was way behind on that. ... The old-style coaching doesn't work. A coach who tries to do everything himself isn't going to be successful."

    The Knicks need to find a stabilizing force on their sidelines. They've had four different coaches in the last five seasons (Mike Woodson, Derek Fisher, Kurt Rambis and Hornacek). Selecting the right voice and sticking with it could be key to unlocking the full potential of Kristaps Porzingis and Frank Ntilikina as franchise cornerstones.

    But it seems the 'Bockers are a lengthy search away from making their decision. ESPN has named Kenny Smith, David Fizdale, Mark Jackson, David Blatt, Jerry Stackhouse and Mike Woodson as candidates.

Orlando Magic: Aaron Gordon's Restricted Free Agency

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    John Raoux/Associated Press

    Aaron Gordon has passed the eye test ever since his one-and-done stint at the University of Arizona, where he flashed effortless athleticism and two-way versatility. He's also looked increasingly promising on the stat sheet, setting personal bests in points (17.6), rebounds (7.9), assists (2.3) and three-point percentage (33.6) this past season.

    Add it all up, and the restricted-free-agent-to-be thinks he's the total package. When asked to lay out his ideal scenario for free agency, he set the bar as high as it could go.

    "Ideal is max—that would be ideal," Gordon said, per Magic.com's John Denton. "Three letters [max]. Definitely here [in Orlando], that would be ideal. If [GM] John [Hammond] and [President of Basketball Operations] Jeff [Weltman] made that investment, that would definitely be ideal to get those three letters on my name."

    The issue is Gordon has never consistently shown max-contract talent. And this isn't the same front office that made him the fourth pick in 2014, so Orlando's level of commitment to Gordon remains to be seen. The Magic reportedly gauged his trade market near the February trade deadline, per The Athletic's Michael Scotto, making it fair to wonder if there's a contract number Orlando would be unwilling to match.

Phoenix Suns: Deandre Ayton or Luka Doncic?

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    Ted S. Warren/Associated Press

    Draft positions won't be solidified until the lottery is held May 15. But for now, the Phoenix Suns have the best odds of obtaining the No. 1 pick (25 percent) and therefore get our first crack at the debate over Deandre Ayton and Luka Doncic.

    Ayton's physical gifts make scouts drool. He's drawn comparisons to the likes of Shaquille O'Neal and David Robinson. Ayton, who doesn't turn 20 until July, supplied the Arizona Wildcats with 20.1 points, 11.6 rebounds and 1.9 blocks in 33.5 minutes per game this past season. As Wasserman noted, it's easy to see how Ayton would fit in the desert:

    "Alex Len will be a free agent. Marquese Chriss and Dragan Bender haven't made convincing cases through two seasons. Phoenix could use a big man like Ayton as another potential go-to scoring option in the lineup next to Devin Booker. With an immaculate physical profile and inside-out skills, he averaged 20.1 points on 61.2 percent shooting, ranking in the 90th percentile on post-ups while showing enough range to knock down 12 threes and 16 of 41 medium jumpers."

    Then again, Doncic is a unique weapon as a 6'8" playmaker. His per-36-minute marks include 21.6 points, 7.6 rebounds and 6.8 assists. He turned 19 in February. His passing instincts, vision and creativity are wildly advanced for his age.

    Ayton makes a little more sense for the Suns, but there probably isn't a wrong answer.

Sacramento Kings: Maximizing Another Top-10 Pick

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    Rich Pedroncelli/Associated Press

    With the Minnesota Timberwolves making their postseason return after 13 years, the Sacramento Kings hold the Association's longest playoff drought at 12 years and counting. While they're too young to do anything about that next season, they're still anxious to see progress.

    "When I spoke to general manager Vlade Divac at the All-Star break, he said the Kings should be better next season, winning 30-plus games and pushing toward playoff contention sooner than later," Jason Jones wrote for the Sacramento Bee. "Essentially, the Kings should be where the Lakers are this season."

    For that to happen, Sacramento must make the most out of its upcoming top-10 pick. It had a productive draft last summer, nailing De'Aaron Fox and Frank Mason while turning Zach Collins into Justin Jackson and Harry Giles. But 2016 was a different story, as the Kings guessed wrong on both Georgios Papagiannis and Malachi Richardson.

    Even if the Kings can't jump into the top three, they should have a shot at getting someone who helps, possibly in a big way. Michael Porter Jr. could be a No. 1 option. Mikal Bridges is oozing with three-and-D potential. Mohamed Bamba has Defensive Player of the Year upside.

    This draft offers quality and quantity. Sacramento's front office has no excuse if it botches this pick.

            

    Statistics used courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com. Salary information obtained via Basketball Insiders.

    Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @ZachBuckleyNBA.

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