HIALEAH, Fla. — Once more, Florida is in the middle of everything.
The nation on Tuesday will be focused on the outcome of several highly contested races in Florida – a microcosm of the 2018 midterm elections that includes a heated race for the governor’s seat, a Senate seat that could flip to the Republicans, and several key House seats that Democrats are trying to win to take back the House.
And while President Trump won’t be on the ballot, Florida’s election contests will deliver an important verdict on his first two years in office. It is 14 years since the late Tim Russert famously said the 2004 presidential election would come down to “Ohio, Ohio, Ohio.” Now, all eyes are on the Sunshine State.
Trump won Florida by a minuscule 1.2 percent over Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016, and the perennially-divided “purple” state is already teed up to be a critical piece of the 2020 presidential puzzle. Dozens of Florida polls show the president continues to split the Florida electorate but is mostly winning at least a slight majority when it comes to his job approval rating.
The state that gave us “hanging chads” in 2000 could also render an undecided and unsatisfying verdict for both parties on Tuesday. Polls show a possible split ticket outcome for the two most closely watched races.
Gov. Rick Scott, a Republican, is slightly favored over incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson, who is vying for a fourth Senate term. But in the race for governor, Democrat Andrew Gillum, the Tallahassee mayor with a progressive agenda that includes gun control and expanding Medicaid, has a slight lead over Republican Ron DeSantis, a conservative and ardent Trump supporter whose agenda includes stopping illegal immigration, keeping taxes low, and replacing Obamacare.
Gillum has managed to stay slightly ahead of DeSantis despite reports that he accepted money and gifts from lobbyists and an undercover FBI agent posing as a developer.
The Democratic candidate, who insists he’s not the target of an FBI probe, has tagged DeSantis with charges of racism, an accusation the Republican firmly denies. But it might be having an effect, as a St. Pete Polls survey released Monday showed Gillum up by five points over DeSantis.
Political analysts have long warned that a Democrat in Florida’s governor’s mansion could be bad for Trump if the next presidential election is close enough to require recounts and the involvement of the state government, as was the case in 2000 when then-candidate George W. Bush won the state by just 537 votes and a 5-4 majority in the U.S. Supreme Court.
“By no means is a governor determinative in a presidential election,” University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato told the Washington Examiner. “But it’s one advantage that Trump had in 2016 that he won’t have in 2020 if the polls are right this time.”
[Related: Sabato: House Dems to net 34 seats, could reach over 40]
Scott wrapped up his campaign Monday with stops in Melbourne, The Villages, and the Cuban enclave of Hialeah, in South Florida, where a shrinking base of older Cuban exiles from the Castro era continue to back GOP candidates.
Scott met with voters in a sweltering Hialeah equipment factory and warned that Nelson, his opponent, won’t represent the best interests of Floridians if he’s re-elected.
“He’s not representing us, he’s representing Chuck Schumer,” Scott said, referring to the Senate progressive minority leader, a New York Democrat and staunch Trump opponent.
Scott also told the crowd to call friends and relatives to get to the polls on Tuesday. “Do not take a chance,” Scott said Monday. “You have to get to the polls tomorrow.”
A Scott victory would help the GOP expand a two-seat Senate majority that they are largely expected to hold. Republicans are poised to lose the House gavel, however, thanks to districts like Florida’s 26th and 27th, where a vulnerable moderate and a GOP retirement have given Democrats a good shot at flipping the seats.
Rep. Carlos Curbelo, who represents the 26th District in South Florida, is fighting for political survival against Democrat Debbie Murcarsel-Powell. The district favored Hillary Clinton by more than 16 points and the race is considered a toss up.
In the neighboring 27th, the retirement of popular lleana Ros-Lehtinen and Clinton’s nearly 20 point margin of victory there in 2016 left the door open to a likely takeover by the Democrats.
Democrat Donna Shalala, a former Clinton Cabinet official, is favored to beat Republican Maria Elvira Salazar. Democrats need to gain a total of 23 new seats over their current 195 seats to win back the majority they lost in a GOP wave in 2010. The polls suggest Democrats will pull off important victories in Florida Tuesday, but analysts warn the numbers were wrong in 2016.
But Florida has delivered surprises before. “Let’s remember the polls in 2016 clearly said Clinton was going to win the state,” Sabato said.
