Nordic full house in Brussels?

The latest craze to grip Brussels is balance. Gender balance, geographic balance, party political balance. Nobody quite knows how the EU ended up with its top five jobs filled by three Italians, three European People’s party members and four men. But the plan is to fix it. And this time it may be done by a true break with history: picking a Nordic candidate. 

It has been some 46 years since nations from the region started joining the European community. On paper, in contests for top EU jobs, they should be a formidable candidate machine. The countries are small, largely inoffensive, respectful of rules, and able to mix a liberal mindset with social democracy. They even have more senior women politicians than most. Yet somehow they always seem to be beaten hands-down by the Luxembourger. 

Few have even come close. Some say Fredrik Reinfeldt, the former Swedish prime minister, discreetly tested the waters when the EU was appointing the first European Council president back in 2009. Carl Bildt, another former Swedish premier, was tipped as a possible foreign policy chief. But it all came to naught. 

The real near miss was Helle Thorning-Schmidt’s bid for the Council presidency in 2014. The then-Danish premier was looking like the Socialist family frontrunner for a top job, and she had some support from Berlin too. 

But it all fell apart after some humming and hawing from Ms Thorning-Schmidt, obstinacy from Matteo Renzi, the Italian premier, and some supremely inept negotiating from France’s François Hollande. The Socialists fixated on the foreign policy chief job, the most junior of the lot, surrendering the rest of the field to the EPP.

This time around the Nordic candidates are almost a swarm. Denmark alone has three contenders. Ms Thorning-Schmidt is again being talked about for the European Council job. Margrethe Vestager, the EU competition commissioner, is hotly tipped for the European Commission. And another liberal, the outgoing prime minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, is somewhere on the long list for the Council.

Then there are the Finns. Alex Stubb failed in his bid to become the EPP lead candidate, but could easily come back into the frame in a later stage of this negotiation. Meanwhile Erkki Liikanen and Olli Rehn, two Brussels veterans turned central bankers, are in with a decent shot of replacing Mario Draghi at the European Central Bank.

The Nordic region is the only one in the 2019 race that could actually provide a full house of presidents. And that will be used against them by their opponents. Ms Vestager could knock out Mr Liikanen, and vice versa. A deal between parties to divvy up posts could hurt their chances too, if the balance that emerges is unfavourable.

But there is no doubt that when the negotiation really heats up and late-night confusion reigns, the Nordic nominees will be well placed. For once, they have strength in numbers. 

alex.barker@ft.com ; @alexebarker

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jim.brunsden@ft.com ; @jimbrunsden

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