Organizational report: Scherzer's deal to have domino effect
Sports Weekly takes an in-depth look at each major league organization during the offseason, from the major leagues to the farm system. We start with teams with the worst records and move up.
***
Giving $210 million over seven years to Max Scherzer, who has won 39 games over the last two seasons, and adding him to a rotation that already led the major leagues in ERA (3.04) in 2014 might suggest excess.
The Washington Nationals essentially have three aces in Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann to pair with Doug Fister and Gio Gonzalez. Tanner Roark, a 15-game winner in 2014, might only get to pitch in relief.
But while the move to secure Scherzer ensures he will be part of the post-2015 picture, it also suggests some familiar faces who have helped the Nationals average 93 wins and reach the playoffs twice in the last three seasons might not.
MLB SALARIES: Baseball's top 25 highest-paid players in 2024
Ian Desmond could be the best shortstop in baseball. Zimmermann was the team's unquestioned ace. Fister had a career-low 2.41 ERA. Denard Span led the National League in hits in 2014. But all are free agents after the season, and Strasburg and Gonzalez, who have been considered the team's ace during different points of their Washington tenures, are eligible for free agency after 2016.
In achieving big-league success, though, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo and his scouting department have built an impressive reserve of young talent that could be ready to help try to continue the team's run.
Outfielder Michael Taylor and middle infielder Wilmer Difo could be on the everyday roster in the near future, and top pitching prospects such as Roark, Blake Treinen, A.J. Cole, Austin Voth and Reynaldo Lopez are potential mainstays in the rotation. So much pitching talent, coupled with the team's long-term commitment to Scherzer, might even mean Strasburg, once the cornerstone of the team's rebuilding plans, won't be a National in two years.
By signing Scherzer, perhaps Rizzo also addresses the team's inability to get out of the divisions series during its recent run by giving the rotation an even more ferocious front three.
The bullpen has been a culprit in those early exits, and perhaps some of the young power arms who won't get a chance to crack the rotation in 2015 could add immediate help in that area.
Either way, 2015 appears to be lining up to be a fun year for Nationals fans before the potential transition.
"This organization is capable of winning. And winning a lot," Scherzer said when the Nationals introduced him last month. "This is a team that can win now and in the future. When you sign up for seven years that's something you want to be a part of."
***
POSITION-BY-POSITION (*prospect)
Catcher: Health has been an issue for Wilson Ramos, who has played 191 games the last three seasons. He has shown decent pop (46 homers in 326 career games) though his slugging percentage dipped last season. He continues to play strong defense, throwing out 38% of would-be basestealers last season, 10% above league average, according to Baseball-Reference.com. Jose Lobaton has proved to be a reliable backup (throwing out 13 baserunners in 40attempts; 33%) without the same production as Ramos. Pedro Severino, 21, the Nationals' top catching prospect, is strong defensively but only reached high Class A last season.
Depth chart: Ramos, Lobaton, Sandy Leon.
First base: Injuries have forced Ryan Zimmerman out of the defensive position at which he once excelled (third base) and over to one at which he has played five career major league games (first base). Limited to 61 games last season by shoulder, hamstring and thumb injuries, Zimmerman showed decent power and expects to be healthy at the start of spring training. The Nationals are reasonably confident in the transition because of Zimmerman's solid athleticism and above-average footwork and hands. But if he can't hold down the position defensively, the Nationals might have to sign another first baseman, as his backups lack big-league experience and the team's best first-base prospect (Matt Skole) took a step back last season after sitting out the previous season following Tommy John elbow surgery. However, considering Zimmerman is owed $74million between now and 2019, the team's best option might be to have backups Kevin Frandsen and Tyler Moore spell him a couple times a week and in the late innings.
Depth chart: Zimmerman, Frandsen, Moore, Clint Robinson, Kila Ka'aihue, *Skole.
Second base: The Nationals gave up valuable eighth-inning reliever Tyler Clippard to get Yunel Escobar in an offseason trade with the Oakland Athletics to fill a need with Asdrubal Cabrera leaving as a free agent. Though Escobar has played 45pro games at second base (21 in the majors), the job looks like his to lose with Danny Espinosa the only other option to start at second. Espinosa, 27, once was a top prospect but has struck out 554 times in 503 major league games, far too many for a full-time big-leaguer. Difo could be available to play here when Escobar's contract runs out after 2016.
Depth chart: Escobar, Espinosa, Anthony Rendon, Emmanuel Burriss, *Difo.
Third base: Zimmerman's injury issues pushed Rendon back to his more natural position last season, at which he played 134 games and won an NL Silver Slugger Award. In his first season as a full-time player, the sixth overall pick in 2011 played excellent defense, scored an NL-best 111 runs and finished fifth in the NL MVP voting. Better news for the Nationals? He can't become a free agent until 2020. Drew Ward, a big-bodied prospect (6-4, 210) with power and strong fielding ability, stood out as a 19-year-old at low Class A Hagerstown (Md.) last season and could eventually land here or somewhere else in the everyday lineup. Rendon has the ability to slide over to second and not lose a step.
Depth chart: Rendon, Frandsen, Ian Stewart, *Skole, *Ward.
Shortstop: Desmond has averaged .275 with 23 homers and 81 RBI the last three seasons as he has won three consecutive NL Silver Slugger Awards. If he gets hurt, Escobar has been a regular big-league shortstop since 2008, but the larger issue is whether or not the Nationals can re-sign Desmond as a free agent this offseason. Perhaps not coincidentally, the Nationals plan to give Difo a lot more opportunities to play shortstop in the minor leagues early next season, although he likely won't be ready by 2015. Escobar is an option to move over by then, though.
Depth chart: Desmond, Escobar, Espinosa, Burriss, *Stephen Perez, *Difo.
Left field: Though Jayson Werth planned to serve a five-day jail sentence this offseason for reckless driving, his January shoulder surgery is what might keep him from opening day. The Nationals' contingency plan is to move Bryce Harper to right to start the season, opening a potential competition for playing time in left. Veteran Nate McLouth is an option, though he had a poor first season with Washington, as is Mike Carp, who thrived in a part-time role for the 2013 World Series champion Boston Red Sox. Jeff Kobernus and Moore have potential but lack a lot of big-league experience. The most intriguing option is Taylor, a potential impact offensive and defensive player who reached Washington last season.
Depth chart: McLouth, Kobernus, *Taylor, Moore, Carp.
Center field: Span is a potent leadoff hitter and has the ability to run down most balls in center. If he's hurt, Harper has proved he can play center at a high level, too. Whether or not the Nationals try to bring Span back next season likely will depend on the progress of Taylor and Brian Goodwin, 24. Goodwin, a supplemental first-round pick in 2011, has good speed and a knack for getting on base, although he struggled with Class AAA pitching in his trial there last season. Taylor's 2014 breakout moved him ahead of Goodwin in the pecking order.
Depth chart: Span, Harper, McLouth, Taylor, *Goodwin.
Right field: Werth has had two productive seasons, averaging .304 with 21 homers and 82 RBI. With his 2014 outlook cloudy, however, Harper will assume right field until he is ready. Harper, who can't become a free agent until 2019, has the arm to capably handle the position but injuries have limited him to 218 games the past two years. The Nationals view Harper's recent injuries (torn thumb ligament on a head-first slide, knee issues after crashing into a wall trying to make a play) a result of his all-out play, a style manager Matt Williams encourages. But that style keeps Harper off the field.
Depth chart: Harper, Werth, McLouth, Carp, *Taylor.
Starting pitchers: The Nationals will stretch out Scherzer, Strasburg, Zimmermann, Fister, Gonzalez and Roark as if they all will be starting. But at this point, Roark appears headed to the bullpen unless Rizzo trades a starter. The Nationals have exceptional starting pitching depth, with Treinen posting a 3.00 ERA in seven starts last season and Taylor Hill and Taylor Jordan gaining big-league experience. Cole, 23, and Voth, 22, are top-notch prospects nearing the majors. The Nationals also have 2014 first-rounder Erick Fedde, a college pitcher who could move quickly through the system.
Depth chart: RHP Scherzer, RHP Zimmermann, RHP Strasburg, RHP Fister, LHP Gonzalez, RHP Roark, RHP Cole, RHP Treinin, RHP Jordan, RHP Hill, *RHP Voth, *RHP Reynaldo Lopez, *RHP Nick Pivetta, *RHP Fedde.
Bullpen: Drew Storen saved 10 games in 10 chances in September to reclaim the closer's job, though they didn't come in high-leverage situations as the Nationals had a firm lead on the NL East at that point. Storen still hasn't proved he can be a reliable closer in the postseason — he stumbled for a second time in the division series against the San Francisco Giants — which might explain why the Nationals signed Casey Janssen. Janssen, who had 81saves in the last three seasons for the Toronto Blue Jays, took a bit of a step back last season — his ERA jumped from 2.56 to 3.94 and his strikeout rate dipped by three per nine innings — but at least fills the eighth-inning void created by the trade of Clippard. Roark likely winds up here, and power-armed Cole is likely to fit in somewhere, too. The Nationals are taking flyers on veterans Heath Bell and Evan Meek with spring invites.
Depth chart: RHP Storen, RHP Janssen, LHP Matt Thornton, RHP Craig Stammen, RHP Aaron Barrett, LHP Jerry Blevins, RHP Treinen, LHP Xavier Cedeno, RHP Cole.
***
PROSPECTS TO WATCH
RHP Lucas Giolito: He is one of the top prospects in baseball and has proved to be a steal as the 16th overall pick in 2012, his stock falling that year only because of impending Tommy John elbow surgery. In his first full pro season, Giolito, 20, went 10-2 with a 2.70 ERA at low Class A Hagerstown (Md.) with 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings and a 1.00 WHIP (walks plus hits per innings pitched). Giolito, who is 6-6 and 255 pounds, reaches 94-97 mph with his fastball and can touch the upper 90s. He has a legitimate swing-and-miss curveball.
OF Michael Taylor: The premium defensive prospect developed into an offensive force in 2014 and played in the All-Star Futures Game and in the majors during a season spent mostly at Class AA. Taylor, 23, hit .304 with 23 homers, 64 RBI, a .915 (OPS) on-base-plus-slugging percentage and 37 steals in 110 games at Class AA and AAA. His defensive ability gives him a shot to make the big-league club as a reserve.
RHP Reynaldo Lopez: The 21-year-old adjusted his delivery and went 7-3 with a 1.08 ERA in 16 starts between short-season Auburn (N.Y.) and Hagerstown. Before a change in mechanics, his fastball had fallen flat, but he now throws in the high 90s with consistency, and his sweeping, side-to-side curveball has gained tilt and depth and become a swing-and-miss pitch. He struck out 7.6 hitters per nine innings last season.
IF Wilmer Difo: Another breakout player, Difo (6-0, 175) could be the strongest player, pound for pound, in the organization. The 22-year-old is an aggressive player and line-drive hitter with some pop and speed (.315, 14 homers, 31 doubles, 90 RBI, 49 steals in 136 games at Hagerstown). He also is a switch-hitter who manages the strike zone well. He's capable of playing second base and shortstop with good hands and an above-average arm.