Democrats face contested primaries in 2016 Senate races

WASHINGTON — When the Ohio Democratic Party and the Senate Democrats' national campaign operation endorsed former governor Ted Strickland to be their standard-bearer against GOP Sen. Rob Portman next year, the party was sending a clear message to other interested candidates: Strickland is the nominee.

Cincinnati Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld heard the message — and ignored it.

"For me, it's very simple: The voters decide who they want their candidate to be. I don't think they want to be dictated to," Sittenfeld told USA TODAY.

Sittenfeld, 30, entered the Democratic race before Strickland and says that, despite party pressure, he never considered exiting to clear the way for the former governor, who remains the front-runner for the nomination.

"I think I can represent where the Democratic Party needs to head. We are younger, we are probably more urban, we are more progressive, and we are more diverse," he said.

Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide

Sittenfeld is part of a crop of Senate Democratic candidates who are shaping primary battles in at least six states, which Republicans hope damages Democrats' chances of re-taking the Senate in 2016.

A number of forces are driving the rise of contested Democratic primaries: Rare opportunities, frustrated down-ballot Democrats, and a philosophical debate between the centrist and progressive wings of the party as it approaches the post-Obama era.

Primary elections can be unwieldy and unpredictable because they are decided by smaller groups of more partisan voters. In recent elections, Democrats have been more successful than Republicans in clearing the field for a favored candidate to save the money and mud-slinging for the general election.

Republicans, who are defending more Senate seats in 2016, see advantages in this surge of Democratic primary fights.

"Having Democrats duke it out in competitive primaries is a very good thing for our Republican incumbents," said Andrea Bozek, spokeswoman for the Senate GOP's campaign operation. "All of these primaries add up to money being spent on Democrats attacking Democrats, while Republicans can get legislation passed, talk about issues that matter, be senatorial, and raise money."

In heavily Democratic states such as California and Maryland, the retirements of Sens. Barbara Boxer and Barbara Mikulski, respectively, opened up a once-in-a-generation shot for down-ballot Democrats to make a run for a Senate seat that, once won, would be hard for a Democrat to lose.

Party leaders have largely coalesced around Attorney General Kamala Harris in California and Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland. However, their establishment support did not deter Rep. Loretta Sanchez from joining the California race or Rep. Donna Edwards from entering the Maryland race. More candidates may follow in both states.

Those two races, along with Illinois and Florida, illustrate another factor driving the rise of contested Democratic primaries: Ambitious House Democrats. The prospect of remaining in the House minority for the foreseeable future and a party leadership structure that allows for little turnover or growth are among the reasons that, so far, half a dozen House lawmakers have already declared Senate bids, with more lawmaker considering runs.

In Illinois, Rep. Tammy Duckworth is running against Sen. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., but Rep. Robin Kelly is also considering a bid. In Florida, Rep. Patrick Murphy, D-Fla., was endorsed early by the Senate Democrats' campaign operation for the open seat race to replace GOP Sen. Marco Rubio, who is running for president. But liberal lightning rod Rep. Alan Grayson may also run.

"If you want to have an impact on politics and get legislation moving and not just cast protest votes, the Senate seems to be the body to do that in right now," said Sean Trende, a non-partisan elections analyst for RealClearPolitics, "But there's only so many Senate seats they can run for so they get funneled into primaries."

Democrats have successfully cleared the field for nominees in battleground races in Nevada and Wisconsin. Former attorney general Catherine Cortez Masto is heavily favored for the Democratic nomination for the open Nevada race to replace retiring Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, and former senator Russ Feingold is a lock for the party's pick in a rematch against GOP Sen. Ron Johnson.

Justin Barasky, a spokesman for the Senate Democrats' campaign operation, said the outcomes of Democratic primaries are unlikely to alter the competitiveness of general elections. Democrats "currently don't have a single primary that will hurt our chances of winning a seat," he said, noting that Republicans also face potential primary fights in as many as six Senate races.

Non-partisan analysts largely agree with that early assessment, although the races are still taking shape. Candidates like Sittenfeld and Edwards will test how eager the grassroots are to see more progressive candidates run. National Democrats are keeping an eye on Florida, where Grayson is viewed as a candidate who could cost the party a general election fight. "Obviously, Grayson is the one," Trende said.

Democrats have also cast a wide net for candidates to run against Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa. So far, only former liberal Democratic congressman Joe Sestak — who has a history of chafing against the party establishment— has jumped in the race.

Asked about the role of primary elections, Sestak replied through a spokeswoman: "Anybody who wants to get in, should get in."

Follow @DaviSusan on Twitter.