How Fast and Furious investigation could hurt the GOP

With the economy stalled, the unemployment picture gloomy and confidence in a recovery low, the Obama administration needs a distraction from economic ennui. Enter Operation Fast and Furious, the gun “walking” program meant to trace weapon purchases to Mexico gone disastrously awry.

What was once a fringe issue that has played out on the periphery of national news cycles has now been thrust to the front pages of newspapers as the U.S. House of Representatives prepares a vote next week to hold Attorney General Eric Holder in criminal contempt.

This comes on the heels of a House Government and Oversight committee vote that took place Wednesday that found Holder in contempt for failing to cooperate with a congressional inquiry into Fast and Furious, just hours after President Obama asserted executive privilege to keep some of the documents related to the scandal confidential.

“It’s an election-year tactic intended to distract attention — and, as a result — has deflected critical resources from fulfilling what remains my top priority at the Department of Justice: Protecting the American people,” Holder said.

Isn’t that exactly what the White House wants?

With a full House vote slated for next week, the scandal is poised to distract even more attention — mostly from the economy. From birth control coverage to Osama Bin Laden, the White House has been anxious to discuss anything but the fiscal state of our nation and the millions of Americans who are still out of work despite a costly stimulus and numerous political ploys like a payroll tax cut extension.

Looking like it’s stonewalling on what happened with regard to internal communications about Fast and Furious indeed makes the Department of Justice look bad. Appearing as if it’s involved in a cover-up is even worse. But baiting Republicans to talk about an issue — gun “walking” — that is complex and not a major issue for swing voters could be a masterful political strategy.

Obama would rather be fighting with the GOP over gun rights for the next few months than the economy — he wants to talk about anything but the economy. The optics of Republicans howling about the Second Amendment are far better for him than a fight on his fumbling of the fiscal state of our nation. Obama won’t get gun rights advocates (to whom Fast and Furious does matter) to vote for him, anyway.

The administration’s argument will go something like this: They will insist that the documents at the center of the constitutional crisis have nothing to do with the death of murdered border agent Brian Terry, how the Fast and Furious program was established or how it was executed because the documents in question are from long after the DOJ halted the botched program.

Obama and others will insist this is an election year witch hunt, a claim that some members of Congress are already making. Then Obama will proceed to tout his job proposals while blasting congressional Republicans for being detached and too consumed in an issue too complicated for most to grasp instead of focusing on jobs. In the ultimate political irony, he’ll make the case he’s trying to revive the economy while the GOP plays politics. Mitt Romney’s economic message will be muzzled by the GOP’s investigative zeal.

To be clear, the Justice Department hasn’t been forthright on Fast and Furious. That is something they have even acknowledged. If the administration dropped the ball and let guns walk in a botched attempt to investigate Mexican drug cartels, voters deserve to know. And if there was a cover up internally at the Justice Department, Holder needs to come clean and release the documents, as he said he would, to avoid a contempt vote altogether.

A border agent was murdered because guns given to drug lords were allowed to walk — and a slain border agent is much more important than a soiled blue dress. But like with Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky, Democrats are hoping Republicans overreach, appearing angry and out of touch with what the electorate really cares about.

If the House vote finds Holder in contempt, the scandal will be kicked to a U.S. Attorney’s office in the District of Columbia and thus kicked off the front pages. It could take months or even years to get an answers or justice, while the election is a mere four months away.

To date, Republicans have done the right thing by trying to get answers. But the political reality is that making Fast and Furious issue number one over Obama’s failed leadership leading up to November could backfire. Romney knows this. It’s why his campaign has stayed largely silent on Fast and Furious and chosen to focus on economic issues.

So what, some may ask. Keeping the heat on Holder and Obama is the right thing to do — and it is. But not holding President Obama accountable for his failed leadership on the economy first and foremost is precisely what he wants. It could also cost Republicans the White House, ultimately handing the man they allege is at the center of the scandal involving incompetence (or much worse) a second term.

andrea@andreatantaros.com