10 Predictions for the Buffalo Bills' 2014 Season

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

The Buffalo Bills have had six different head coaches and 12 different quarterbacks since the last time they made the playoffs in 1999. Their 14-year drought is the longest active streak with no trips to the playoffs. If they don't want to make it seven different head coaches and 13 different quarterbacks, they'll have to make sure they don't make it to 15 years without a trip to the postseason.

There's a lot riding on the development of quarterback EJ Manuel. The Bills used their first-round pick on him in 2013, and after trading away their 2015 first-round pick to move up for wide receiver Sammy Watkins, it looks like Manuel is the man in Buffalo for at least a little longer—that is, if he can get past Kyle Orton breathing down his neck.

The front office has certainly done all it can to make Manuel's job easier, providing him a bevy of pass-catching talent in Watkins, Mike Williams and Robert Woods. The quarterback will also benefit from the return of running backs Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller.

The Bills defense was a surprisingly good unit last year and returns much of its talent-laden roster (besides losing safety Jairus Byrd as a free agent). Nevertheless, out went former defensive coordinator Mike Pettine to be the Cleveland Browns head coach and in comes former Detroit Lions head coach Jim Schwartz to be the Bills' new defensive coordinator.

The Bills defense has been one of the five worst units against the run and has had one of the 10 highest yards per carry allowed in each of the past five seasons. To predict the Bills will make the leap from one of the league's worst to one of the best is as bold as it gets.

Granted, it was only the preseason, but the Bills defense allowed opponents to gain only 379 rushing yards on 144 attempts (2.6 yards per attempt). If Buffalo can carry that performance into the regular season, there could be a renaissance for the run defense.

One underrated addition to the run defense is linebacker Brandon Spikes. The former Patriot and Gator may not be the ideal linebacker on passing downs, but he can still fill a gap in the line and take down a running back with the best of them.

The Bills' struggles against the run don't seem to make a lot of sense. Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams are a force in the middle of the defensive line. This year could be the year the defense finally puts it all together.

The Bills recently announced that C.J. Spiller will be returning kickoffs in 2014. That's good news for the Bills, who will finally be giving the dynamic Spiller more opportunities with the ball in his hands, but it's not good news for Spiller's fantasy owners. It looks like Spiller is headed for another timeshare with Fred Jackson.

Spiller flashed explosive playmaking ability in 2012 when he averaged more than six yards per rush attempt, which was the second-highest average by a running back in the NFL that season behind only Adrian Peterson. Last year, Spiller came back to the pack with an average of only 4.6 yards per attempt. 

Spiller was not fully healthy last year, but he and Jackson split touches almost evenly: Jackson had 253, while Spiller had 235. Jackson finished the season with 1,277 yards from scrimmage, ahead of Spiller's 1,118. Spiller may get the majority of the opportunities between the 20-yard lines, but Jackson will likely get some of those and most of the opportunities in the red zone as well.

Mario Williams only logged 10 or more sacks in two of his six seasons with the Houston Texans, but he has already matched that total in his two years with the Bills, logging 10.5 in 2012 and 13 in 2013. 

Williams stirs the drink for the Bills defense, making everyone around him a better player when he is on top of his game. It will be even more important for Williams to be at his best now that the Bills will run Jim Schwartz's 4-3 defense. There is a lot of pressure on the front four to get after the quarterback in Schwartz's scheme, as the former Lions head coach does not like to blitz often.

Super Mario has a lot of talent around him on the defensive line, which makes it harder for opposing offensive lines to slide the protection his way. Instead, look for Williams to capitalize on one-on-one opportunities, of which he should get plenty.

Tight end Scott Chandler tore his ACL at the end of the 2012 season, leaving his status for 2013 in doubt. All he did was put up career highs in receptions and receiving yards, making those doubts a distant memory.

With Stevie Johnson jettisoned to the San Francisco 49ers, Chandler is one of only a few familiar targets (along with Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin) who are likely to see significant playing time. 

Further playing to Chandler's benefit is Manuel's tendency to check down. He does not hesitate to dump the ball off to a running back in the flat or a tight end over the middle if his first read is covered. That could mean another year for Chandler atop the Bills' stat sheet as their leading receiver.

Aaron Williams' first season at safety was 2013, after spending most of his college and NFL career as a cornerback. Now, with a year of experience under his belt, the safety position should come more naturally to him.

Williams picked off four passes in his first year as a safety, tying Kiko Alonso, Jairus Byrd and Jim Leonhard for the team lead in interceptions. With Byrd out of the picture, it will be up to Williams to make up some of the lost ground.

The Bills will probably be in a lot of Cover 2 on the back end this season with Jim Schwartz calling the signals for the defense, and that means a lot of playmaking opportunities for Williams. 

Some folks believe that the Bills signed Kyle Orton as a contingency plan in case EJ Manuel fails to live up to the expectations of a starting quarterback in his second season. That could be the case, but even if it's not, the Bills made the right move by signing Orton simply as insurance in the event of an injury to their starter.

Manuel missed six regular-season games as a rookie and also missed time in the preseason. Each time he missed action, it was due to a knee injury. He may need to learn to protect himself better by sliding when he scrambles, but two of the three knee injuries were suffered on seemingly innocuous hits in the pocket.

There are no guarantees that Manuel will stay healthy, even if he doesn't scramble once. Last year's trend could continue into this year. Of course, there's also the possibility that Manuel misses time if he underperforms and is pulled in favor of Orton.

For years, the Bills always seemed to be good for more than a handful of spectacular special teams plays each season. Last year, they didn't have a single one. No Bills player returned a kickoff or a punt for a touchdown, and the longest return of the season was a paltry 28 yards.

Cornerback Leodis McKelvin took over as the team's primary punt returner in 2012 and promptly took two punts back for touchdowns while leading the league in average yards per punt return. 

If the Bills defense can get some stops on third down, McKelvin should have enough opportunities in the punt game to make his presence felt on special teams and help give the Bills some momentum-swinging plays.

By now, we've all heard about the great performances by Sammy Watkins at Bills training camp. Rookie wide receivers don't often make a big impact in their rookie season, though, and Watkins may be no different. He has spent much of his career catching screens and fly routes and will need to diversify his game before he can be counted on to make a big impact in the NFL consistently.

In the meantime, Mike Williams could be a favorite target in the red zone. Not only has he been targeted in the red zone an average of 12 times per season, but he's also caught 25 touchdowns on 215 career receptions, or one touchdown in every 8.6 receptions, according to Matthew Fairburn of Syracuse.com.

Williams' combination of size, experience running the full route tree and getting open against NFL-caliber cornerbacks should make him an early target in tight windows.

Trade rumors surround the Bills regularly. Last year, there was buzz that Jairus Byrd might not finish out the season in Buffalo, as reported by ESPN's Adam Schefter. This year, the rumors surround C.J. Spiller, who enters the final year of his contract before a player option in 2015 that would allow him to leave the fold.

According to Will Brinson of CBSSports.com, Bills general manager Doug Whaley has already come out to deny the reports and said that the team has not been contacted about Spiller.

Spiller's on-field value trumps the value that the Bills could likely get for him in a trade. Not only is the running back position devalued as it is, but no team is going to want to give up a first-round pick for a running back who has proved he is little more than a timeshare back with upside for his explosive playmaking ability.

Unless the Bills are content getting very little in return for Spiller, it looks like he'll finish out the year in Buffalo. What happens from there is still a mystery.

The Bills have finished 6-10 in each of the past three seasons and in four of the past five. 

On one hand, there's reason to believe they will improve. The addition of Sammy Watkins gives the Bills another explosive playmaker to help the league's 28th-ranked pass attack move the ball a little more readily. EJ Manuel could also improve in his second year.

On the other hand, the Bills could be headed for some trouble without Mike Pettine calling the defense, without Kiko Alonso (torn ACL) in the middle, without Jairus Byrd on the back end and without much in the way of certainty on the offensive line.

For every step forward, the Bills took a step back, and that could lead to them ending the 2014 season in familiar territory: 6-10 and out of the playoffs.