Steve Spurrier 11-30-13
South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier has led the Gamecock to their first five-game winning streak against Clemson (led by coach Dabo Swinney) and also produced three consecutive 11-2 seasons.
(AP Photo | Robert Shiro)
The college football look ahead — a project covering every bowl subdivision team — looks in on defending Big Ten champion Michigan State and SEC powers Auburn and South Carolina in its penultimate segment.
If carving out an identity is an important part of building any program (and it probably is), then it is one area that Stanford flat-out aced over the last seven years.
Under Jim Harbaugh and now David Shaw, there was not and is not any mystery as to what makes the Cardinal good. In an era of wide-open offenses, it runs the ball down opponents' throats and refuses to allow foes to do the same.
It's far from an original notion, but it is reassuring to be reminded a team can succeed without following the lead of all the cool kids. It helps, of course, to have talent, and Stanford has gotten the perfect blend of smarts (of course), ability and attitude to maintain their run of four straight 11-win teams.
Can it get there again? The schedule is not forgiving. Stanford goes to Washington, Notre Dame, Arizona State, Oregon and UCLA. A good team wouldn't be happy to go 3-2 in those games, but it would probably be fortunate.
The question here, like in so many other places, is about the offensive line. Stanford has a lot to replace up front, but this ranking is a show of faith that the Cardinal have continued to draw in the right sort of players perfectly suited for this program's philosophy.
Stanford in haiku:
Good mark on the Farm
Just one home loss in four years
Will remain stout there
Since we're on the subject of team identity, let's look at the best total defenses over the last three seasons.
183.6: 2011 Alabama
250.0: 2012 Alabama
251.5: 2013 Louisville
252.5: 2013 Michigan State
254.1: 2012 Florida State
261.5: 2011 Louisiana State
266.1: 2012 Brigham Young
267.7: 2011 South Carolina
274.4: 2012 Michigan State
275.0: 2011 Florida State
277.2: 2011 Georgia
277.4: 2011 Michigan State
So Michigan State has three of the 12 best total defenses in the last three seasons. Florida State comes close to matching that (three of the top 13), with Alabama not too far behind (three of the top 16).
In case you didn't notice, Alabama won three national titles between 2009 and 2012, and Florida State won it all last season. There is nothing fluky about Michigan State, at least on that side of the ball.
Offensively, the Spartans took a major step forward last season. Instead of losing four times despite yielding less than three touchdowns (like in 2012), Michigan State only did that once. It made a massive difference.
The Spartans probably aren't going to be an offensive juggernaut; it's simply not how they're designed. But there are enough key contributors back on both sides of the ball to make another run at a Big Ten title possible.
Michigan State in haiku:
Three straight bowl triumphs
Three 10-win years in last four
"Little Brother"? Nope
When it comes to Baylor, there's only one question to ask in the wake of the Bears' absurd rise to prominence under Art Briles?
Will the defense play well?
It's a given that Baylor will score points. Over the last three years, the Bears have scored 30 points in all but five of their 39 games. They have gotten to 40 points in 29 of those 39 contests. They put up video game numbers, and it's incumbent upon everyone else to slow them down.
Two years ago, Baylor's defense stunk and the Bears went 8-5. Last season, it was usually pretty good and Baylor was 11-2. There's a lesson there.
Quarterback Bryce Petty is going to produce ridiculous numbers, but whether he gets a ton of Heisman hype in November will probably be tied to where Baylor sits in the national title picture. And that placement depends largely on whether the Bears reload on defense.
Baylor in haiku:
McLane Stadium
Plenty of bells and whistles
Farewell, Floyd Casey
Sometimes, a little luck goes a long way. For Auburn last season, it took it all the way to the national title game.
The Prayer at Jordan-Hare against Georgia and the Kick Six against Alabama were two of the indelible moments in the entire sport last season. But combine those with a go-ahead touchdown against Mississippi State with 10 seconds to go, and it's not hard to envision a 12-2 team that gave Florida State everything it could handle on the last day of the season instead going 9-4 with a mid-tier bowl victory.
The point of bringing this up is not disparage Auburn, which rightfully savored every friendly bounce a year after going 3-9. But it does bring up a fair question: How would the Tigers be perceived if they'd gone 4-4 in the SEC last season?
As a top-25 bunch? Certainly after taking the steps they did last year in Gus Malzahn's first season. As top-10 material? Perhaps by some analysts, but not by nearly as many as there are now. Two of last year's wildest plays — sequences that would be nearly impossible to repeat — helped give Auburn a bunch of added credibility, which is sort of difficult to square away from a rational perspective.
This, however, is pretty easy to come to terms with: Last year's improvement was generated largely by Malzahn's offense. He gets back much of his starting line, as well as quarterback Nick Marshall. Auburn will be tough to stop, and its defense will be middle-of-the-road in the SEC. That'll be enough to keep the Tigers in the playoff discussion until mid-November, if not later.
Auburn in haiku:
Best story this year?
How 'bout tackle Shon Coleman?
Beat cancer, could start
Not for a minute was Steve Spurrier irrelevant as a college coach --- a ball coach, if you will. Not at Duke, not at Florida, and not at South Carolina. But his early Gamecocks teams lagged far behind Florida, Georgia and Tennessee in the SEC East and were not particularly interesting for any reason other than Spurrier's quips.
South Carolina's evolution into a top-10 mainstay the last three years coincides with a reliance on a power running game and a strong defense, which was the traditional way to rule the SEC until Spurrier went to Florida and shredded opponents through the air.
It still works (just check out Alabama under Nick Saban), but Spurrier's willingness to use that approach is a reminder that he's really, really smart, and not just in a quick-witted, fire-a-barb-at-a-foe sort of way.
Now he has perhaps his best team yet at South Carolina, even without quarterback Connor Shaw and monster-when-motivated Jadeveon Clowney. His entire starting offensive line returns, as does tailback Mike Davis. Many of the major pieces on defense, a top-20 bunch last year, also remain.
The schedule doesn't offer many breathers, and having to contend with Texas A&M, East Carolina, Georgia, Vanderbilt and Missouri in the first 31 days of the season will not be a picnic. But the second half has some cushion; there is a bye before a trip to Florida, and de facto byes before traveling to Auburn and Clemson. If the Gamecocks survive September, this very well could be a playoff team.
South Carolina in haiku:
Hail the Head Ball Coach
Spurrier has owned Clemson
Is SEC next?
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