5 Key Games That Will Define the Miami Heat's 2015 Playoff Push

What a difference a year makes. The Miami Heat, winner of four straight Eastern Conference Finals, are in serious danger of missing the playoffs.

Miami is 28-35 and currently sits at ninth in the Eastern Conference (half a game behind the Charlotte Hornets). Five teams are now battling it out for the East's final two spots, and all are separated by only a handful of games.

Between Dwyane Wade, Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside, the Heat clearly have the most top-shelf talent of any Eastern team that is still fighting to make the playoffs. But even that doesn't make them a big favorite to reach the postseason—not when you consider that virtually half the roster is struggling with some kind of day-to-day injury.

If the Heat plan on playing in May, they'll have to close the season strong and pick up wins in a few key games. Let's take a look at those games and analyze each matchup.

Season Record vs. Brooklyn Nets: 3-0 (2-0 road)

Brooklyn may have the most talent of any team that is scrapping with Miami for the eighth seed. The Nets are erratic, but they're capable of beating anyone when they're clicking. In fact, they just recently topped the Golden State Warriors 110-108.

Without a doubt, the Net to watch is Brook Lopez. Whiteside is out due to suspension, while Chris Andersen and Udonis Haslem are both questionable to suit up (though Haslem plans to play, per the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson). Lopez could be in for a monster evening.

Lopez is taking more jumpers than ever before, but he's still a skilled big who can victimize lesser defenders on the low block. Miami needs to find someone who can hold his ground in the low post and turn Lopez into nothing more than a pick-and-popper. If it can't do that, it's hard to imagine the defense surviving.

With that being said, all of the injuries to Miami's bigs could serve to jump-start its offense. The Heat might be forced to play small, sliding Luol Deng or Michael Beasley into the power forward or even center slot. 

Those lineups have been good offensively this season, and the prospect of Deng or Beasley dragging the Brooklyn bigs out of the paint is appetizing. Defense will obviously be an issue, but if Miami doesn't have anyone to check Lopez, it may as well just maximize its scoring potential.

One other thing the Heat have going for them is pace of play. Their previous matchups this season have been slow, low-scoring slogs, exactly the type of game Brooklyn likes.

Assuming Dragic plays, Miami now has a point guard who can push the pace and actively hunt for opportunities in transition. That's not something that Brooklyn's lumbering lineups are particularly well-equipped to handle and should give the Heat a real offensive edge.

Season Record vs. Boston Celtics: 2-1 (1-0 road)

The Celtics are only a game-and-a-half behind the Heat and just trounced them, 100-90. For what it's worth, Boston has a really tough schedule to close the year. But even so, Miami could use a win in this one.

The Celtics aren't a particularly good offensive team. They score 101.2 points per 100 possessions, right around the league average. However, their frontcourt shooting could give the Heat a lot of trouble. Brandon Bass, Kelly Olynyk and Jonas Jerebko are all willing to fire from 16 feet and out, and they've caused Miami problems in the past.

The Heat are one of the worst teams in the league at defending the roll man in pick-and-rolls, allowing 1.07 points per possession on those play types.

Miami's blitzing defense is great at forcing turnovers, but it also opens up easy avenues for opposing bigs to get the ball at the top of the key. Boston's frontcourt can cash in on opportunities like that. The Heat may choose to dial back the blitzing and station Whiteside or Andersen as close to the basket as possible.

It'll be interesting to see how Miami chooses to attack Boston on the other end. Wade ran wild on the Celtics in their last matchup. But don't count out the possibility of seeing a lot of Whiteside post-ups.

Boston has been gashed by post-up bigs all season, and Miami all but ran its offense through Whiteside in a February game against the Celtics.

Season Record vs. Indiana Pacers: 1-2 (0-1 road)

No team has been better than the Pacers over the past six weeks. Indiana is 12-2 since the start of February and is beating teams by 10.5 points per 100 possessions over that same span.

As you might expect, the Pacers have been fantastic defensively, but they've been shockingly good offensively as well.

Since February, they've scored 107.5 points per 100 possessions, good for third in the league. That they're operating at this kind of efficiency without Paul George is surprising and a testament to Frank Vogel's ability to squeeze productivity out of fringe players.

Miami hasn't had much trouble defending against Indiana this season, but it hasn't been able to score at all. It's been pressed into taking a ton of mid-range jumpers against the Pacers and hasn't generated the rim attacks and outside shots that sustain the league's best offenses.

The Heat can't allow that to happen this time out.

Indiana has few defensive openings, but Miami should be able to hurt the Pacers when Whiteside rolls to the rim. The Pacers focus on funneling ball-handlers toward one of Roy Hibbert or Ian Mahinmi. They're good at that, but it also leaves them susceptible to roll men, especially those bigs who can catch the ball and make one- or two-dribble plays heading toward the basket.

Whiteside fits the bill. If he can get a few clean pick-and-roll looks, it could begin to open up spot-up opportunities for the Heat's best shooters.

Season Record vs. Charlotte Hornets: 1-2 (0-2 road)

The Hornets have been playing solid basketball since the trade deadline (6-4 over that span) thanks, in no small part, to Mo Williams.

Since Charlotte acquired him in early February, Williams has averaged 21.4 points and 8.5 assists per game on 57.6 percent true shooting. He's giving the Hornets every bit as much as Kemba Walker did (and then some), and his shooting helps to space the floor for Al Jefferson.

Miami needs to get the ball out of his hands as much as possible. It might do well to ramp up its defensive blitzing when he's in the game. Unlike Walker, Williams hardly ever gets to the rim. He relies on a mean pull-up jumper to do most of his scoring and can't string out defenses with his dribble. That makes him a bit more susceptible to the Heat's defensive aggression.

Even if Williams has a big game offensively, Miami should make him pay on the other end. He's never been a particularly good defender and often has trouble navigating screens. Dragic should be able to bully him all game, especially if the Heat get creative with their pick-and-roll play.

The Hornets drop their bigs back on pick-and-rolls in an effort to protect the rim. Miami could try pick-and-popping with a perimeter player like Deng or Beasley in an effort to generate easy shots.

One other player to watch out for is Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. He is one of the best wing defenders in the league, per ESPN's real plus-minus system. He's also versatile enough to defend multiple positions. The Hornets may opt to have him defend the Miami ball-handlers for long stretches.

That could gum up Miami's offense but would also give it the opportunity to create mismatches if it can force Charlotte into any defensive switching.

Season Record vs. Philadelphia 76ers: 2-1 (1-0 road)

The 76ers are a lower-caliber basketball team than the others on this list, but that doesn't make this contest any less important. Not only is it the Heat's final game of the season (and potentially their last chance to squeeze into the postseason), but it's also another chance to make up for a horrific December collapse against Philadelphia.

The 76ers are not a good team, but they have the potential to pull off big upsets thanks to their defense and three-point shooting. Philadelphia has somehow managed to cobble together a nearly top-10 defense this season. It allows just 101.8 points per 100 possessions. For reference, that's better than the Chicago Bulls' defense.

For all its flaws, the 76ers roster is full of lengthy athletes who can cover a lot of ground quickly. They're led defensively by Nerlens Noel, who even as a rookie has cemented himself as one of the league's better defensive players.

ESPN's real plus-minus system pegs Noel as a big defensive plus. He's also posting block and steal numbers that only Hakeem Olajuwon and David Robinson have ever matched.

What makes Noel really scary is his ability to switch defensively. The 76ers are more than happy to let him switch onto guards on pick-and-rolls. He gets burned sometimes, but he typically does a passable job and can cause a lot of havoc in the passing lanes.

Philadelphia is an admittedly atrocious offensive team (one of the worst ever, in fact). But it takes a lot of threes, which in and of itself can be dangerous. When the 76ers shooters get hot (as they did against the Oklahoma City Thunder recently), they can hang with almost any team.

The onus is on the Heat's guards and wings to fight over screens and contest all of Philly's outside shots. The 76ers' ball-handlers aren't shy when it comes to launching off-the-dribble threes (Isaiah Canaan is particularly dangerous in this sense). If Miami gets lazy defensively, it could run into some real trouble.

All statistics accurate as of March 10 and courtesy of Basketball-Reference or NBA.com/Stats unless stated otherwise.