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NBA Draft 2015: Analyzing Most Intriguing Prospects in Post-Lottery Mock Draft

Sterling Xie@@sxie1281X.com LogoCorrespondent IIMay 21, 2015

Is Karl-Anthony Towns the perfect big man for today's NBA?
Is Karl-Anthony Towns the perfect big man for today's NBA?Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Unlike last year's class, which offered a smattering of high-floor, franchise-player types, the 2015 NBA draft class offers a much wider range of variance.  While the duo of Karl-Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor has separated itself from the pack, the rest of the lottery pool will be taking tickets on an abundance of high-risk, high-reward prospects.

That range could subsequently make this one of the best or worst draft classes of the 2000s.  Regardless, we might also see more surprise selections and trade whispers as the draft approaches, as teams figure to have very different reads on some of the more divisive top players.

With the full order now set after the lottery, let's highlight the players whose evaluations draw the most intrigue, for better or for worse.

2015 1st-Round Mock
PickTeamSelection
1Minnesota TimberwolvesKarl-Anthony Towns, F/C, Kentucky
2Los Angeles LakersJahlil Okafor, C, Duke
3Philadelphia 76ersD'Angelo Russell, G, Ohio State
4New York KnicksEmmanuel Mudiay, PG, China
5Orlando MagicKristaps Porzingis, PF, Latvia
6Sacramento KingsJustise Winslow, SF, Duke
7Denver NuggetsMario Hezonja, G, Croatia
8Detroit PistonsStanley Johnson, F, Arizona
9Charlotte HornetsWillie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky
10Miami HeatFrank Kaminsky, C, Wisconsin
11Indiana PacersMyles Turner, C, Texas
12Utah JazzKelly Oubre Jr., SF, Kansas
13Phoenix SunsDevin Booker, SG, Kentucky
14Oklahoma City ThunderJerian Grant, PG, Notre Dame
15Atlanta Hawks (via Brooklyn Nets)Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA
16Boston CelticsTrey Lyles, PF, Kentucky
17Milwaukee BucksMontrezl Harrell, PF-C, Louisville
18Houston Rockets (via New Orleans Pelicans)Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State
19Washington WizardsSam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin
20Toronto RaptorsChristian Wood, PF, UNLV
21Dallas MavericksBobby Portis, PF, Arkansas
22Chicago BullsTyus Jones, PG, Duke
23Portland Trail BlazersRondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF, Arizona
24Cleveland CavaliersDelon Wright, PG, Utah
25Memphis GrizzliesR.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State
26San Antonio SpursRobert Upshaw, C, Washington
27Los Angeles Lakers (via Houston Rockets)Justin Anderson, SF, Virginia
28Boston Celtics (via Los Angeles Clippers)Cedi Osman, PG, Macedonia
29Brooklyn Nets (via Atlanta Hawks)Terry Rozier, PG, Louisville
30Golden State WarriorsCliff Alexander, PF, Kansas

Most Intriguing Prospects

Karl-Anthony Towns, F/C, Kentucky

In a league where versatile wing players have become the alpha males, the 6'11" Towns is the rare big man whose skill set is not anachronistic in the modern NBA.  Towns possesses the most versatile skill set of any center since Anthony Davis, demonstrating three-point range and a tight handle in addition to his rim protection and low-post scoring ability, traits that we'd expect from a big man.

The 19-year-old Towns is a little too callow to live up to savior expectations immediately, so whoever selects him will need patience.  He frequently found himself in foul trouble at Lexington, a byproduct of poor defensive instincts and a general tendency to jump at shot fakes.  

However, as SB Nation's Kevin O'Connor notes, Towns' immense defensive potential is what has him in front of Okafor in most mock drafts at the moment:

Defense sets Towns apart from Jahlil Okafor. Towns is the cookie monster of shot blocking. He's hungry for blocks and will stop at nothing to swat the ball away. As a freshman, he averaged over four blocks per 40 minutes pace adjusted, which ranks third of all prospects. …

What's most impressive about Towns' rim protection is his timing and extension. Even though he only has a 29-inch standing vertical, he's able to highpoint the ball due to his long 7'3 wingspan and lightning-quick leap. How fast a shot blocker elevates sometimes matters more than how high he actually jumps. As long as Towns maintains this same level of intensity throughout his career, he'll develop into a great rim protector.

However, it's not a foregone conclusion that Towns will go first overall to the Minnesota Timberwolves.  The T-Wolves and Los Angeles Lakers represent polar opposites in the league hierarchy, so there could actually be an unusual race between Towns and Okafor to drop to No. 2.  Yahoo's Adrian Wojnarowski suggested that Towns and his reps might not be so amicable to the T-Wolves' overtures:

Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn

If Karl-Anthony Towns is determined to get to Lakers, it'll be interesting to see how agreeable his camp will be to meeting with Minnesota.

Of course, he doesn't really have much leverage, and he'll surely learn to enjoy playing alongside Andrew Wiggins while receiving passes from Ricky Rubio.  Towns' diversity is exactly what a big man needs to thrive in today's NBA, making him the marquee prospect of this class.

Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China

The former SMU commit took the unusual route of opting out of the NCAA and playing overseas.  That has typically ended poorly for high school prospects, namely Brandon Jennings and Jeremy Tyler.  The 6'5" Mudiay ended up playing just 12 games for the Guangdong Southern Tigers, and while his stock hasn't faltered, there's more mystery surrounding him than any other presumptive top-five selection.

Mudiay's appeal is obvious: He's a big combo guard with explosive athleticism, a playing style that evokes Russell Westbrook with his power in the open court.  Grantland's Danny Chau opined that, despite his inexperience, his precocious instincts and feel for the point guard position make him a more pro-ready prospect than many credit him for:

What Mudiay lacks in fundamentals, he makes up for with an innate sense of pace and timing that shouldn’t come so naturally for a player so raw. While he’s prone to mistakes, Mudiay has shown the ability to take advantage of changes in speed, something that took guys like Wall and Russell Westbrook years to accept. Maybe the most comforting play Mudiay made in Game 3 happened early in the fourth quarter. Near center court, Mudiay called for both of his bigs to come to the top of the 3-point line into a basic “horns” formation, for a double drag screen play. Mudiay dribbled right, Yi dove down into the paint with a defender on him, and Mudiay was instantly doubled. Zhou Peng, who set Mudiay’s screen, slipped left and had a wide-open driving lane. Mudiay found him immediately for a score and a foul. As far as style goes, Mudiay has all the tricks — the behind-the-back drives, the jackknifing reverse layups, the breakaway slams — but this was a taste of good, slow cooking.

Scouts should also come away impressed at his intangibles, as the 19-year-old did not crumble under the weight of impossible expectations in a foreign environment like Jennings and Tyler did.  Still, there's an early consensus that the more polished D'Angelo Russell will be the first guard off the board, with conflicting reports about Mudiay's potential match with the New York Knicks at No. 4:

Jon Rothstein @JonRothstein

Larry Brown felt SMU would have been a one seed with Emmanuel Mudiay. Now the 6-5 PG could be the Knicks' best hope to salvage 2015 Draft.

Chad Ford @chadfordinsider

The Knicks will talk trade with everyone & are also big Justise Winslow fans. Not sure they’re sold on Mudiay ...

Mudiay will need a nurturing environment where he can further develop his half-court offensive game and receive the minutes against elite competition that he's yet to face.  It's unclear if the dysfunctional Knicks represent that kind of ideal scenario, but don't expect Mudiay to fall much further if Phil Jackson and Co. pass him up.

Kelly Oubre Jr., SF, Kansas

Of the prospects projected to come off the board outside the top 10, Kansas' Oubre might possess the highest ceiling of any player in that subgroup.  With a 7'2" wingspan and a well-developed jump shot, Oubre is the rare collegiate wing with oodles of athleticism and a translatable, pro-ready offensive skill that isn't expected to come off the board within the first five picks.

In fairness, the ex-Jayhawk still needs plenty of polish after just a single season in Lawrence.  When Oubre declared for the draft, CBS Sports' Sam Vecenie noted that his athleticism should provide his future coaching staff plenty of flexibility, as his lack of a firm identity could allow his team to turn him into whatever kind of player it desires:

Particularly, he could stand to work on his jump shot consistency as well as his ball-handling ability, particularly to his right side. But his first step is awesome, he gets out in transition well, and his vertical explosion is really good. Basically, Oubre is a blank canvas for NBA coaches to mold into whatever they want him to become. There are a lot of different potential outcomes here. Maybe he becomes a terrific 3-and-D player (he made 36 percent of his catch-and-shoot shots this year, which is solid). Maybe he becomes a slashing terror. Maybe he'll do it all and become a star.

The 19-year-old is the type of mid-lottery selection who could become the type of steal that turns a middling team into a championship contender.  Whether it's Klay Thompson or Jeff Teague, the teams still playing in the postseason have benefited from striking gold with these seemingly low-value first-round selections.

Teams like the Miami Heat, Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics could all conceivably carve out significant minutes for Oubre right away.  Not every toolsy wing player hits, of course, but Oubre has enough of a foundation that the odds of him totally flaming out seem rather unlikely.