SAGINAW, MI — As public health officials track an increasing spread of COVID-19 cases across Saginaw County, emerging data underlines the deadly impact of the virus on unvaccinated residents there.
By late January, the earliest vaccinations largely provided immunity from the virus for a sizable slice of the most vulnerable populations, said Christina Harrington, health officer for Saginaw County Health Department..
Since then, about 95% of virus-related deaths in the county involved people who received no vaccine doses, she said.
The statistic lines up with public health reports indicating individuals who test positive for the virus despite achieving vaccination status — a group referred to as “breakthrough cases” — largely avoid severe symptoms and death.
Deadly pattern
The first pandemic-related death in the county was reported 18 months ago. During the next nine months — from April 2020 through the end of that year — 375 Saginaw County residents died. During the last nine months — spanning January 2021 to now — there were 262 deaths, or a 30.1% drop from 2020.
One difference between the first and second half of the pandemic was the introduction of COVID-19 vaccines, first made available in mid-December to health care workers and senior citizens at long-term care facilities. With both high-risk groups largely shielded from the worst outcomes of the virus, the rate of deaths declined immediately.
A statewide data dashboard showed Saginaw County reached a peak average of six daily virus-related deaths in the first week of December. By the last week of January, the number dropped below one death per day, and largely stayed beneath that figure ever since. The numbers are based on 7-day averages.
Earlier this month, the county’s daily average reached one death per day. A recent uptick in fatalities coincided with a gradual rise in new daily COVID-19 cases that began the final week of June.
With one week remaining in September, 13 people have died from the virus this month. That compared to seven deaths in August and six in July.
The growth in new daily cases continues to move in the wrong direction.
“In the last week or so, we’ve seen a higher increase,” Harrington said.
The data dashboard showed new daily cases outpaced the spread of the virus experienced at this time last year. The county averaged 55.5 new cases per day as of Sunday, Sept. 19. On that same date in 2020, the average was 21 new cases per day.
The upward trend last year continued until mid-November, when the county peaked at an average of 169.4 new cases per day.
That average reached its 2021 low on the eve of July, when there were 2.4 new cases per day.
A boost in breakthroughs
Also on the upswing in recent weeks: breakthrough cases.
In April and May, there were about 60 Saginaw County breakthrough cases, Harrington said. In August, there were 160 breakthrough cases.
Public health officials say COVID-19 vaccines lose potency over time. In response, plans are underway to provide booster shots to re-establish high levels of immunity among the vaccinated.
The Food and Drug Administration this week authorized Pfizer booster doses for Americans who are 65 and older, younger people with underlying health conditions, and individuals in jobs that put them at high-risk for COVID-19.
“We’ve already had meetings about this,” said Dr. Delicia Pruitt, medical director at the Saginaw County Health Department. “We are ready to go with this. We’re just waiting for the governing bodies to let us know when we can do this.”
Catching up to the rest
Saginaw County remains behind the curve in vaccinations compared to numbers at the federal and state levels.
Across the U.S. this week, 54.8% of the population was vaccinated. In Michigan, that number was 51.8%. In Saginaw County, it’s 45.5%.
Harrington said more granular data reveals the disparity in rates among different demographics in the county. Black and late-teen populations, for instance, were among the groups with the lowest vaccination rates in the categories of race and age, respectively.
The percentage of people vaccinated in Saginaw County was 30% within the Black population; 37% within the Asian population; 41% within the White population; and 64% within the American Indian and Alaskan native population, she said.
Efforts to pitch the protective measure to low-vaccinated groups — including Black populations — ramped up in Saginaw County last month when Great Lakes Bay Health Centers leaders announced its $50,000 “Community Immunity” campaign.
Meanwhile, among eligible age groups, individuals between 16 and 19 were the least-vaccinated population in Saginaw County, at 28%. It’s a population receiving much attention recently as new cases climb in some high schools across the region. St. Charles High School last week transitioned from in-classroom to online learning because of an outbreak there.
“We definitely want to focus some efforts (on vaccinations) in that age category,” Harrington said.
She said the percentage of vaccinated people in all other eligible age groups was as follows:
- 41% for ages 12 to 15
- 36% for ages 20 to 29
- 48% for ages 30 to 44
- 51% for ages 45 to 54
- 66% for ages 55 to 64
- 93% for ages 65 to 74
- 94% for ages 75 and older
Harrington and Pruitt discussed the state of the pandemic in the region during a Facebook Live video session uploaded to the Saginaw County Health Department Facebook page Tuesday, Sept. 21.
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