Coronavirus Transmission On The Rise Across Washington

SEATTLE, WA — Daily coronavirus case counts have been surging to near record highs over the past weeks, and now a new study has found that transmission rates for the virus are also on the rise.

The study from the Bellevue-based Institute of Disease Modeling and the Washington State Department of Health concerns itself with the virus' "effective reproductive number" which shows how many people an average coronavirus patient infects with the disease.

In western Washington the effective reproductive number is estimated to be 1.59, meaning the average coronavirus patient infects one and a half more people. In eastern Washington, the estimated number is 1.2. Both numbers are higher than they have been in months past and health officials warn both are unacceptable: in order to decrease the number of coronavirus cases the number of new infections per case must be below one, so that case counts decrease over time.

Especially concerning is that western Washington had managed to keep their infection rate low for months, only to have it spike back up when businesses began to reopen.

There is some good news to be found in the study: Yakima County is improving. Yakima County has been one of the hardest hit regions in the whole west coast, and the newest data shows that their reproduction rate is about .93, meaning residents are likely to see fewer infections over time if that keeps up.

The study also reaffirms what public health officials in Pierce and King County have been warning, that most new infections are in younger adults. The study concludes that an intervention must be necessary to help in "reducing transmission in these age groups and ensuring that infections do not spread to older vulnerable populations."

King County recently reported that 3/4 of all their recent coronavirus cases have been in patients under 40, and mostly through social gatherings. They're asking younger adults to reconsider gathering with friends and to try to take the virus as seriously as they did near the beginning of the outbreak, or risk the situation spinning out of control.

Read more: King County: COVID-19 Infection Rate High In Young Adults

The full study from the Institute of Disease Modeling can be found here.