A golden age for Western schools in China may be coming to an end in the face of a new government clampdown.
China has been a happy hunting ground for Western schools in recent years, as a burgeoning middle class looks to equip their children with the qualifications to get into a Western university, as well as the skills to join a global workforce.
The last five years has seen a 64% increase in the number of students enrolled in international schools in China, which now account for 372,000 children in 857 schools.
But from next year, schools will have to select their students via a lottery, rather than being able to pick and choose from among the applicants.
The crackdown has been prompted by fears that foreign-owned schools are poaching the brightest children, according to Richard Gaskell, director of international education analysts ISC Research.
The move follows changes introduced last years requiring international schools to teach the Chinese curriculum alongside other national programs.
‘There is a backlash against the rapid increase in private schools in China, particularly from the big public schools where it’s perceived that they have been simply creaming off the best kids,’ Mr Gaskell said.
Foreign-owned schools should also expect greater scrutiny and bureaucracy, he added.
International schools should put expansion plans on hold until the full effect of the changes becomes apparent next spring, he told the Headmasters’ and Headmistresses’ Conference of leading fee-paying schools in the U.K.
The Chinese government was also concerned at the number of students heading abroad to study, both at K-12 level and for higher education, he added.
The international schools market has exploded in China in recent years, after the authorities relaxed regulations Chinese children attending foreign-owned schools.
Until then, international schools almost entirely served the children of foreign nationals, but opening them up to Chinese children revealed a massive and previously untapped demand.
For the growing Chinese middle class, the schools provided a more reliable route that Chinese national schools for getting into highly-regarded universities in the West, particularly those in the U.S. and U.K.
These students, in turn, represent a lucrative source of income, for both the schools themselves and for Western universities. The annual fee for a leading international school is around 280,000 yuan, or $39,000.
China is the largest source of international students at U.K. universities, accounting for more than one in five at undergraduate and postgraduate level.
Some of the most prestigious private schools have sought to capitalise on their brand by opening branches in China in recent years. Wellington College has five schools in China - two each in Shanghai and Hangzhou and one in Tianjin - while Dulwich College has four - two in Shanghai and one each in Beijing and Suzhou.
A record 14 British international schools have opened or are due to open in China this year, including outposts of the King’s School, Canterbury, and Shrewsbury School, which counts Charles Darwin among its alumni.
But despite the increased scrutiny, Mr. Gaskell said there are still opportunities for international schools to open in China, given the "massive demand" among Chinese families.
"There is a deep desire amongst the wealthy, middle class and young Chinese parents for a Western style of education," he said.
Parents want an international education but also want their children to retain their culture and identity, he added, as well as excellent exam results and "places at the top universities."
