Trump, Democrats thrust Supreme Court fight forward as a central issue in November election

WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump and Democrats moved Saturday to frame the debate over a sudden Supreme Court vacancy as a defining issue in the November election, with each side counting on a divisive and historic process to replace Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg as a catalyst to energize their voters and donors.

Even before Trump has named a nominee for the seat, Democrats and Republicans launched into a bitter debate over the timing of the confirmation, underscoring the enormous stakes at play for a president eager to fulfill his promise to steer the court further to the right and Democrats' desire to stop him.

The vacancy hands Trump an unexpected opportunity to fire up his voters and shift the narrative of the election away from his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and its subsequent economic fallout. For Democrats, the fight is about nothing less than replacing a justice who had become a liberal hero, a bulwark against immigration, abortion and other policies embraced by Trump.

Short list:Who might succeed Justice Ginsburg? Trump's short list begins with women

Political observers predicted the debate over the opening would have major implications for both parties' ability to energize voters and raise money not only for the Nov. 3 presidential election between Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden, but also in the battle for control the Senate.   

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"I do believe that turnout will increase above what we already believed would be the highest turnout election in the modern era," said Lara Brown, director of the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University.

The opening, Brown noted, will help Trump "galvanize white evangelicals" who were key to his victory in 2016 and who supported him because of his promise to appoint conservatives to the federal judiciary. But the fight over the vacancy could also fire up progressive voters "who had been unenthusiastic about Biden’s candidacy."

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A new front opens

Neither Trump nor congressional Democrats wasted time Saturday drawing battle lines around the upcoming fight, and using it to excite their voters. 

Trump vowed Saturday to move quickly to fill the opening and urged the Republican Party to confirm his nominee "without delay."

The president was expected to raise that argument during a previously scheduled campaign rally planned in the battleground state of North Carolina on Saturday evening.  

"We were put in this position of power and importance to make decisions for the people who so proudly elected us, the most important of which has long been considered to be the selection of United States Supreme Court Justices," Trump tweeted Saturday. "We have this obligation, without delay!" 

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, speaking to Democrats on a call Saturday afternoon, cast the looming fight over the vacancy as a central campaign issue that is tied to several other progressive priorities, including health care, protections for pre-existing conditions, voting rights and climate.   

"Our number one goal must be to communicate the stakes of this Supreme Court fight to the American people," he told colleagues, according to a source who attended the call and spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. "Everything Americans value is at stake."

Republican strategist Scott Jennings said he is of two minds on how the Supreme Court issue will affect Trump's chances for reelection. 

"I think this definitely motivates pro-life conservatives and reminds recalcitrant Republicans why their vote really matters," Jennings said.

On the other hand, he said, many of those voters also care more about the economy. At his campaign rallies, Trump has touted the nation's low unemployment before the pandemic struck and has argued he is best positioned to build it back. 

"The Trump campaign pivoted to the economy this week and they are now off that message and on dealing with this new matter," he said, "which is essentially a debate over abortion."

Democrats said the issue would also be a huge motivator for their side. 

"In our most recent battleground polling of the voters Democrats most need to mobilize to vote, we asked about Joe Biden's ability to appoint judges to the Supreme Court," said Josh Schwerin, of Priorities USA Action, a political action committee that supports Democratic candidates. "About 65 percent of voters gave this the highest marks as a reason to be enthusiastic about voting for Biden."

Senate at stake

Democrats and Republicans already were waging a fierce battle for control of the Senate this year. Ginsburg’s death raises the stakes even higher.

Twenty-three of the 35 Senate seats on the ballot in November are currently held by Republicans. The other 12 are held by Democrats. To win control of the Senate, Democrats need to pick up at least four seats. (If Democrats win the White House, they would need to pick up just three seats to control the Senate because the vice president would cast tie-breaking votes.)

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Ginsburg’s death could prompt voters to shift the balance of power in the Senate, just as they often do in mid-term elections when the president’s party almost always loses congressional seats, said Kent Syler, a political scientist at Middle Tennessee State University.

“If Republicans go forward to fill the Ginsburg seat, they likely lose any blue- or purple-state U.S. Senate races,” Syler said. “The big question is how does it affect Donald Trump? RBG may have turned 2020 into a midterm election for Republicans.”

The Senate seats considered most likely to flip are in Colorado and Arizona – each held by a Republican – and a Democratic-controlled seat in Alabama. Other closely watched contests are in Maine, North Carolina, Georgia, Montana and South Carolina – all currently held by Republicans – and a Democratic-held seat in Michigan.

Arizona senate race:Could it factor into who succeeds Ginsburg?

The race most likely to be influenced by Ginsburg’s death is in Maine, where Republican incumbent Susan Collins is trailing Democrat Sara Gideon. Collins provided the pivotal vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh in 2018, raising the ire of independents whose support she needs to win re-election.

After issuing a statement late Friday praising Ginsburg as “a trailblazer for women’s rights,” Collins issued one Saturday saying she would not support a vote before the election. "In fairness to the American people, who will either be re-electing the President or selecting a new one, the decision on a lifetime appointment to the Supreme Court should be made by a President who is elected on November 3rd." 

Another Senate race where Ginsburg’s death could be pivotal is in Colorado, where Republican Cory Gardner is fighting for his political life. Gardner issued a statement calling Ginsburg a “trailblazing leader” but left open the question of when she should be replaced. His opponent, former Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper, said the Senate must not confirm Ginsburg’s replacement until next year.

Seeing dollar signs

While the political implications remained murky, the financial calculations are more clear. 

The vacancy almost immediately amplified an already intense grab for campaign cash in the final weeks of the campaign. Supreme Court confirmation fights are often extremely lucrative fundraising opportunities for third-party super PACs and other groups that will use the money to run advertisements in battleground states.

ActBlue, which raises money for Democratic candidates, reported raising $57 million online through Saturday afternoon. The group raised $6.2 million in the first hour after the justice’s death become public, the New York Times reported, more than any other one-hour period since the group launched 16 years ago. 

More:Biden says nomination to replace Ginsburg should be made after the election

More:'She never failed': Reaction to the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg

The pro-life groups National Right to Life and the Susan B. Anthony List, which will also likely experience a boon in fundraising, did not immediately respond to emails seeking fundraising figures, but the idea had clearly already caught on among Republicans.

“President Trump will fill the Supreme Court vacancy, without delay!” the president’s campaign sent in a text message to supporters with a link to a page seeking donations. “He’s counting on his strongest supporters, like you, to stand with him at this critical time.”

What about COVID?

One question analysts wrestled with Saturday is whether the fight over filling a Supreme Court seat will have the same resonance for voters during a pandemic that has killed nearly 200,000 Americans and cost millions their jobs.

Analyst Rick Tyler, an anti-Trump Republican, said battleground states are "equally divided by ideology," and the pandemic will remain the dominant issue among many voters.

Said Tyler: "I don’t think the message of 'forget the pandemic and that you lost your job, we need to get Trump’s nominee on the court' is a winning message as compared to 'remember, because of Trump’s mismanagement of the coronavirus, you lost your job and your life is now upside down and all he thinks is important is getting another justice on the court.'"

Trump and aides have said they believe the Supreme Court issue boosted their campaign in 2016 and helped him defeat Democrat Hillary Clinton. In unveiling a list of potential candidates earlier this month, Trump said this year's winner "will choose hundreds of federal judges, and, in all likelihood, one, two, three, and even four Supreme Court justices."

On the other hand, rushing a Supreme Court nomination in the heat of a presidential race could alienate other independent voters, analysts said. Democrats have charged Trump and the Republicans with hypocrisy. Four years ago, they noted, the GOP worked to block the nomination of Merrick Garland, the jurist President Barack Obama nominated to replace the deceased Scalia.

At the time, in March 2016, many Republicans said the Senate should wait for the results of the November presidential election before filling a lifetime appointment on the nation's highest court – an argument they now appear to be abandoning. 

"There is no doubt – let me clear– that the voters should pick the president and the president should pick the justice for the Senate to consider," Biden said late Friday. "This was the position the Republican Senate took in 2016 when there were almost 10 months to go before the election."

More:'RBG': How Ruth Bader Ginsburg became a legit pop-culture icon

Barb McQuade, a former federal prosecutor and law professor at the University of Michigan, said the passing of Ginsburg – known as "RBG" – "does focus voters on the importance of the court."

The Republicans "have seemed better at using that as a rallying point in the past," McQuade said, "but RBG is so well-known that maybe this time it goes the other way."

Nominee will matter

How the political fight shakes out could depend largely on the nominee. 

The White House has been planning for a potential Supreme Court vacancy for months, officials said. That included the Sept. 9 release of 20 potential nominees, adding to a series of previous lists. That list was widely viewed as a political document, intended to signal to voters Trump's commitment to appoint conservatives.

At this point, advisers said, Trump starts with an Indiana-based judge who made his short list on previous vacancies: Amy Coney Barrett, a member of the 7th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals. Trump specifically mentioned two candidates – Barrett and Judge Barbara Lagoa of the 11th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals – in a phone call Friday night with McConnell, said two people familiar with the call speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a private conversation. 

Ginsburg, an icon who made her name as a lawyer who won a string of women's rights cases during the 1970s, will likely be replaced by a woman, officials said.

Other possibilities include Judge Joan Larsen, a Michigan-based jurist and former clerk to Justice Antonin Scalia who sits on 6th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals and Judge Britt Grant, a former member of the Georgia Supreme Court now on the Atlanta-based 11th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals. 

Contributing: Joey Garrison, Christal Hayes