Arizona reports more than 1,500 new COVID-19 cases as numbers keep rising

One day after Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey acknowledged "a storm is ahead of us," Arizona reported more than 1,500 new COVID-19 cases and 16 new known deaths.

The past several weeks have seen relatively higher daily case reports as the virus spreads at its fastest rate in Arizona since June, although case numbers are still well below where they were at during the summer peak.

Identified COVID-19 cases in Arizona rose by 1,565 on Friday to 244,045, and known deaths were at 5,934, according to the daily report from the Arizona Department of Health Services. Friday marked the fourth straight day that new cases eclipsed 1,000.

An increase in new COVID-19 cases in the summer was an early indicator of more hospitalizations and deaths in the weeks to come.

Ducey on Thursday said Arizonans, "need to keep our guard up" but announced no new preventive measures, instead pointing to existing strategies such as restaurant capacity limits. He contended the state had already "learned what works to combat this virus."

'A STORM IS AHEAD OF US':  Ducey warns public of rise in COVID-19, but doesn't impose new preventive measures

Arizona's cases are rising, but not at the levels of many other states.

Arizona is below new case rates reported in 37 other states, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's COVID Data Tracker says. Cases are surging in North Dakota, where the new case rate per 100,000 people for the previous seven days was 114.2 as of Thursday, the CDC reports. By comparison, Arizona's rate was 14.5.

The number of patients hospitalized statewide for known or suspected COVID-19 cases rose to 900 on Thursday, up from 874 on Wednesday. Thursday's total is the highest number reported since Aug. 25, when 967 patients were hospitalized statewide with known and suspected COVID-19. At the peak of Arizona's surge in July, the number of hospitalized patients suspected or confirmed to have the virus exceeded 3,000.

The number of patients with suspected or known COVID-19 in intensive care units across Arizona was at 188 on Thursday. Last Friday's 191 ICU beds in use was the highest level since Sept. 9. The level is far below what it was in July, when ICU beds in use for COVID-19 reached 970.

The number of Arizonans with confirmed and suspected COVID-19 on ventilators was at 99 on Wednesday. In mid-July, as many as 687 patients across the state with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 were on ventilators. 

Friday's dashboard shows 85% of inpatient beds and 86% of ICU beds in use, which includes people being treated for COVID-19 and other patients. COVID-19 patients were using 10% of all inpatient beds and 11% of ICU beds. Overall, 28% of ventilators were in use.

Percent positivity, which refers to the percent of COVID-19 diagnostic tests that are positive, has gone up slightly, which many health experts consider an early indicator of a spike in illnesses.

Of known test results from last week, the percent positivity was 6%, up from 5% the week prior, according to the state, which has a unique way of calculating percent positivity. Before the past two weeks, percent positivity was at 4% for six weeks straight, according to state data.

Johns Hopkins University calculates Arizona's seven-day moving average of percent positives at 9.8% Friday. It shows the state's percent positivity had reached a relative plateau and is now trending upward.

A positivity rate of 5% is considered a good benchmark that the spread of the disease is under control.

The Arizona Department of Health Services on Tuesday released a video that notes a 57% increase in weekly new cases from September's numbers and tells state residents to "remain vigilant" about following COVID-19 prevention practices like physical distancing and wearing a mask in public.

What you need to know about Friday's numbers

Reported cases in Arizona: 244,045.

Cases increased by 1,565, or 0.64%, from Thursday's 242,480 identified cases since the outbreak began.

Cases by county: 157,728 in Maricopa, 28,296 in Pima, 13,797 in Yuma, 11,958 in Pinal, 6,452 in Navajo, 5,301 in Coconino, 4,395 in Mohave, 3,992 in Apache, 3,037 in Santa Cruz, 2,982 in Yavapai, 2,193 in Cochise, 1,965 in Gila, 1,224 in Graham, 624 in La Paz and 101 in Greenlee, according to state numbers.

The rate of cases per 100,000 people is highest in Yuma County, followed by Santa Cruz, Navajo and Apache counties. The rate in Yuma County is 6,000 cases per 100,000 people. By comparison, the U.S. average rate is 2,670 cases per 100,000 people, according to the CDC.

The Navajo Nation reported 11,602 cases and 575 confirmed deaths as of Thursday. The Navajo Nation includes parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Utah.

The Arizona Department of Corrections said 2,636 inmates had tested positive for COVID-19 as of Thursday, including 995 in Tucson; 40,937 inmates statewide have been tested.

A total of 767 prison staff members have self-reported testing positive, the state corrections department said. Nineteen incarcerated people in Arizona have been confirmed to have died of COVID-19, with nine additional deaths under investigation. 

While race/ethnicity is unknown for 30% of all COVID-19 cases statewide, 31% of cases are Hispanic or Latino, 26% are white, 6% are Native American, 3% are Black and 1% are Asian/Pacific Islander.

Laboratories have completed 1,759,095 diagnostic tests for COVID-19, 10.2% of which have come back positive. That number now includes both PCR and antigen testing. The percentage of positive tests had increased since mid-May but began decreasing in July. Last week it was at 6%, up from 5% the week prior and 4% for six weeks before that. The state numbers leave out data from labs that do not report electronically.

ADHS has begun including probable cases as anyone with a positive antigen test, another type of test to determine current infection. Antigen tests (not related to antibody tests) are a newer type of COVID-19 diagnostic test that use a nasal swab or another fluid sample to test for current infection. Results are typically produced within 15 minutes. 

A positive antigen test result is considered very accurate, but there's an increased chance of false-negative results, the Mayo Clinic says. Depending on the situation, Mayo Clinic officials say a doctor may recommend a PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test to confirm a negative antigen test result.

Arizona, as of Thursday had the 16th highest overall rate of infection in the country, an improvement over 14th place on Monday, the Centers for Disease Control and Infection's COVID Data Tracker says.

Ahead of Arizona in cases per 100,000 people since the pandemic began are North Dakota, South Dakota, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Wisconsin, Iowa, Tennessee, , Florida, Arkansas, Idaho, Nebraska, Utah, South Carolina and Georgia, according to the CDC.

Arizona's infection rate is 3,363 cases per 100,000 people, the CDC said. The national average is 2,670 cases per 100,000 people, though the rates in states hard-hit early on in the pandemic may be an undercount because a lack of available testing in March and April.

Reported deaths: 5,934

County deaths: 3,577 in Maricopa, 639 in Pima, 354 in Yuma, 240 in Navajo, 231 in Mohave, 226 in Pinal, 170 in Apache, 149 in Coconino, 91 in Yavapai, 75 in Cochise, 70 in Gila, 65 in Santa Cruz, 28 in Graham, 17 in La Paz and fewer than three in Greenlee.

People aged 65 and older made up 4,226 of the 5,934 deaths, or 71%.

While race/ethnicity is unknown for 11% of deaths, 42% of those who died were white, 30% were Hispanic or Latino, 11% were Native American, 3% were Black and 1% were Asian/Pacific Islander, the state data show.

The global death toll on Thursday was 1,183,861 and the U.S. had the highest death count of any country in the world, at 228,909, according to Johns Hopkins University. Arizona's death total of 5,934 deaths represents 2.6% of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. as of Wednesday.

The COVID-19 death rate in Arizona was 82 per 100,000 people as of Thursday, according to the CDC, putting it 9th in the country in a state ranking that separates New York City and New York state. The U.S. average is 69 deaths per 100,000 people, the CDC says.

Behind New York City, at 285 deaths per 100,000 people, the CDC put the highest death rates ahead of Arizona as New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Louisiana, Rhode Island, Mississippi, and the District of Columbia.

Arizona Republic Reporter Maria Polletta contributed to this report.

Reach health care reporter Stephanie Innes at Stephanie.Innes@gannett.com or at 602-444-8369. Follow her on Twitter @stephanieinnes

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