While the final day of the regular season saw the Warriors beat the Memphis Grizzlies and clinch the No. 8 seed in this week’s play-in tournament, Golden State may have been disappointed with another result.
By defeating the Dallas Mavericks Sunday, the Minnesota Timberwolves improved to 23-49 to claim the sixth-worst record in the league and break a tie for the fifth-best odds in the NBA draft lottery.
As owners of Minnesota’s top-three protected first-round pick, the Warriors have had an incentive to root for the Timberwolves to lose and increase the odds of Golden State landing a top pick in a highly-touted 2021 draft class. Now, this pick may not be as valuable as it appeared only a month ago.
After spending most of the season in the basement of the standings, Minnesota won 10 of its final 19 games, going from the league’s worst record of 13-40 to finishing the season 23-49. That decreases the odds of the Warriors ending up with a top-five pick from 59.8% to just 9.6%.
The Warriors acquired the pick in last season’s trade that sent D’Angelo Russell and others to Minnesota for Andrew Wiggins and a future first-round pick. That pick conveys this year if it falls outside of the top three during June 22’s lottery that determines the final draft order. If it does not convey, it becomes unprotected in 2022.
Now there’s a 27.6% chance the pick falls within the top three, a 9.6% chance it ends up at No. 4, no chance for No. 5 and a 62.8% chance it falls between picks 6-10.
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Selecting outside of the top five would be a disappointment for the Warriors. This draft is widely considered to feature five franchise-changing talents: Oklahoma State’s Cade Cunningham, USC’s Evan Mobley, Gonzaga’s Jalen Suggs and G League Ignite’s Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga.
The next tier includes solid prospects, though certainly of a lesser tier. Players such as Florida State’s Scottie Barnes, Gonzaga’s Corey Kispert, Michigan’s Franz Wagner, Tennessee’s Keon Johnson and Baylor’s Davion Mitchell are talented yet flawed.
That’s not to say a future All-Star won’t emerge from those ranks. Every year players are selected outside the top five who end up changing the forecast of their franchise. The Miami Heat’s selection of Tyler Herro in 2019 helped power their run to the Finals; the year before, the Denver Nuggets grabbed Michael Porter Jr., a lights-out shooter, at No. 14; selecting Donovan Mitchell at No. 13 in 2017 helped turn the Utah Jazz into a championship contender.
But uncovering future stars in that range takes a lot of work and luck. For every Herro, Porter or Mitchell, there is a Romeo Langford, Jerome Robinson and Frank Ntilikina — players who, early on, don’t appear to deliver on their lottery pick status.
The other factor worth considering is the pick’s trade value. A top-five pick in this draft would carry with it substantial weight in a potential trade package. The worth of the pick if it falls to even sixth, considering the top five players will be off the board, drops considerably.
Meanwhile, the Warriors will keep their own first-round pick this year. In November, Golden State traded a top-20 protected pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Kelly Oubre Jr. After finishing with the season 39-33, the Warriors will pick at 17 and keep that pick regardless of postseason results.
Overall, the Warriors have a good chance of having two picks in the top 17 of a strong draft. Those are valuable assets for an organization that aims to return to title contention next season.
