Artist's concept of the Space Launch System rocket and Orion capsule prepared for launch.
Any chances NASA seems to get to make good on its long-held promises to return crews to the lunar surface seem to get inexplicably stymied; this time by a double black swan —- the advent of the Covid-19 pandemic and unforeseen civil unrest. Both of which spell disaster for President Donald Trump.
To his credit, the President seems to have embraced the idea of revitalizing NASA’s crewed program, finally getting us back on the lunar regolith. But who could have foreseen what now looks to be a coming defeat for the President come November? And what would this actually mean for NASA’s Artemis program which calls for sending a crew to the lunar South Pole by 2024?
Nothing good, I can assure you.
Let’s suppose that former Vice President Joe Biden becomes president next January with the intention of continuing the Artemis program. Given the unprecedented mountain of debt the U.S. Treasury has run up in trying to mitigate a full-scale economic meltdown, Congress will not be in a mood to support NASA in meeting this 2024 deadline.
“No firm indications of a Biden space policy have emerged so far, but my speculation is that he would continue with Artemis, but not on the current challenging —- perhaps unrealistic – schedule,” John Logsdon, Professor Emeritus and founder, Space Policy Institute, George Washington University, told me.
In fact, I predict that the launch will be pushed back by at least a year, maybe even two or three.
Congress will be looking to cut NASA budgets to the bone in the wake of burgeoning national debt and decreasing tax revenues. And much of the country will still be grappling with a moribund national economy well into next year.
Congress is focusing on other issues, and whether it will enact the timely appropriation of funds needed for the landing system to get to and from the lunar surface is not clear, says Logsdon.
Even so, NASA headquarters still remains optimistic about meeting the 2024 deadline.
“We continue to assess the impact the COVID-19 pandemic has had on our missions, but we strongly believe that we can still meet the goal of landing the first woman and the next man on the Moon in 2024,” NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine told me via a headquarters’ spokesperson.
Yet NASA has also experienced shakeups in its human spaceflight directorate that could hinder meeting Artemis’ goals. Case in point, Doug Laverro, Associate Administrator of NASA’s Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate, departed less than a month ago.
But Bridenstine remains undeterred.
Former astronaut Ken Bowersox (now acting administrator in the human exploration directorate) and his highly experienced leadership team continue to make great progress towards achieving NASA’s ambitious Artemis goals, says Bridenstine.
Even so, something tells me that the crises facing the U.S. at present are truly unprecedented, although at times, this feels a bit like déjà vu. In the 1960s, even during years of similar uncertainty and widespread civil unrest, NASA flourished in its quest to meet President Kennedy’s challenge of safely returning a man to the lunar and back. All before the decade was out.
But given all the current obstacles and uncertainties, getting American astronauts on the surface of the Moon by the end of 2024 would be nothing short of a miracle, says Logsdon.
