One of the biggest stories of last week was how ADMA Biologics, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADMA) shares plunged 30% in the week since its latest yearly results, closing yesterday at US$1.80. The business exceeded revenue expectations with sales of US$29m coming in 2.4% ahead of forecasts. Statutory losses were US$0.89 a share, in line with what analysts predicted. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what top analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see analysts' latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for ADMA Biologics

Following the latest results, ADMA Biologics's six analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$53.7m in 2020. This would be a sizeable 83% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory losses are forecast to balloon 48% to US$0.46 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$52.8m and US$0.75 per share in losses. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a sizeable expansion in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

The consensus price target fell 13% to US$11.00 despite the forecast for smaller losses next year. It looks like the ongoing lack of profitability is starting to weigh on analyst valuations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values ADMA Biologics at US$15.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$6.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

In addition, we can look to ADMA Biologics's past performance and see whether business is expected to improve, and if the company is expected to perform better than wider market. It's clear from the latest estimates that ADMA Biologics's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with forecast 83% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 29%p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same market, which are forecast to grow their revenue 16% next year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that ADMA Biologics is expected to grow much faster than its market.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note from these estimates is that the consensus increased its forecast losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at ADMA Biologics. Fortunately, analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data does suggest that ADMA Biologics's revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider market. The consensus price target fell measurably, with analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of ADMA Biologics's future valuation.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple ADMA Biologics analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of ADMA Biologics's balance sheet, and whether we think ADMA Biologics is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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