A key coronavirus model is lowering its predictions for the cumulative death toll both nationwide and in Massachusetts through August as the number of dead rose above 100,000 Wednesday.
The model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington now projects there will be 131,967 deaths from the virus across the country by August, down from a prediction of 143,357 on May 18.
Massachusetts, which reported more than 6,470 deaths as of Tuesday, is now projected to reach a toll of roughly 8,232 by August. That’s down from a prediction of 8,949 on May 18. But the model fluctuates regularly — earlier this month Massachusetts was projected to have 7,545 deaths before spiking days later to 9,629.
The current dip comes as researchers monitor the effects of states lifting their lockdowns — and are seeing promising results so far as those leaving their homes largely appear to be complying with mask wearing and social distancing mandates.
“We expected in the early projections that when mobility increases there would be more circulation of the virus and unfortunately more deaths,” Dr. Ali Mokdad, professor of health metrics sciences at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, told the Herald. “This is the second update in a row that mobility is not as associated with transmission of the virus as we had expected, so it’s a big surprise for us.”
But the latest IHME update doesn’t include Memorial Day weekend, when Americans flocked to beaches and gathered in large groups despite warnings from public officials.
Researchers are concerned “things may change and people are letting down their guard,” leading to a resurgence in cases, Mokdad said.
Massachusetts is one of seven states estimated to have experienced a death rate of at least 50 per 100,000 people, along with New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Louisiana and Michigan, according to the model.
The Bay State also has one of the highest infection rates alongside Rhode Island, Iowa and New Jersey, though Mokdad said Massachusetts also has one of the highest testing levels in the country.
As the United States passed a tragic milestone Wednesday with more than 100,000 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins University tracker, infectious disease experts warned that increased mobility could still lead to more cases and deaths.
“Social interaction will be increasing and you will see a number of cases occurring and that will impact the number of cases and hospitalizations a model will predict,” said Dr. Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security.
But Dr. Matthew Fox, professor of epidemiology at the Boston University School of Public Health, said, “If we can be better at protecting those who are at highest risk for the most severe consequences, we could certainly have an impact on the mortality curve even when infections tick up.”
