Horse racing newsletter: Hard Not to Love is even easier to love

Hello, my name is John Cherwa, and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we look at why Bob Baffert may become the most successful Kentucky Derby trainer ever.

We’ve got a special treat for you in today’s newsletter. Veteran turf journalist Gary West is penning some commentaries for the Thoroughbred News Service and his one this week is on Bob Baffert. So, rather than listening to me, he’s an edited version of what Gary had to say.

“Having been raised on a ranch in Nogales, Ariz., and having ridden during his teen years in a fair share of those I-bet-my-horse-can-outrun-yours races that were so common in the Southwest, Bob Baffert once thought that having a 20-horse stable at Rillito Park would be proof he had made it. He made it all right.

“ ’I was just hoping that one day I’d be training 20 horses,’ Baffert said, recalling his early years as a quarter horse trainer at Rillito Park in Tucson in the late 1970s. ‘I thought that would be great. That was the goal, to train 20 horses. I never thought I’d be here. It’s been quite a journey.’

“Baffert has been in the most celebrated winner’s circles, his image on the most respected magazine covers and his name in the most revered record books alongside numbers that quantify his career: nearly $300 million in earnings; more than 3,000 victories; 20 champions, with three Horses of the Year; 15 victories in Triple Crown races; 15 in Breeders’ Cup Championship races; four Eclipse Awards; and two Triple Crown winners. He has become the face of horse racing and the game’s most recognizable luminary.

“Baffert could soon tie a record once thought unreachable, that of Ben Jones’ six Kentucky Derby victories.

“Baffert has won five. And aimed in the direction of Louisville, he has three of this year’s leading Derby contenders: Thousand Words, Nadal and Authentic.

“Winning the Kentucky Derby is much more difficult today than it was when Jones accumulated his victories. Because of that, Baffert’s five wins in America’s premier race already represent a greater achievement than Jones’ six.

“Among the reasons is the racehorse population. Lawrin, Jones’ first Derby winner, was foaled in 1935, when the North American foal crop totaled 5,038; Silver Charm, Baffert’s first, was foaled in 1994, when the North American foal crop totaled 35,341. How much more difficult is it to be preeminent among 35,000 than among 5,000?

“Jones’ six Derby winners emerged from foal crops that totaled 38,707, an average of 6,451 foals. Baffert’s five Derby winners emerged from foal crops that totaled 153,830, an average of 30,766 foals.

“Another contributing factor is World War II. Jones won the Derby with Whirlaway seven months before America entered the war in 1941 and with Pensive in 1944. During the war, horse racing contracted and competition declined. The foal crop shrank 14.4 percent during this period. With a dearth of workers and a curtailment of public transportation, racing was subject to approval by local War Manpower Commissions. Some racetracks simply closed. Saratoga, for example, closed after its 1942 season and remained dark until 1946. And with fewer horses and less competition, winning the Derby wasn’t quite the mountain climb it would become.

“The modern Derby isn’t what it used to be. It’s much more. When Jones won his first, Matt Winn, Churchill Downs’ president and impresario, already had established the Derby as America’s most glamorous, festive and exciting horse race. Making his point, Winn and the Derby had appeared on the cover of Time magazine in 1937. But television heralded a new era. Jones’ final Derby in 1952 was the first to receive national television coverage, and since then the first event in the Triple Crown has grown so significantly in cultural importance and visibility that it’s no longer just the nation’s premier race but also one of the most meaningful events in sports, and winning it one of the most gratifying. It’s the race everyone knows and everyone wants to win. And with its burgeoning importance and popularity, the Derby field has grown so dramatically that Churchill has had to limit the field 20. During the Jones era, the average Derby field was 13.

“One more factor worth noting. All but one of Jones’ Derby victories were for Calumet Farm, the sport’s dominant owner and breeder. During the Jones era, Calumet topped the national owners’ and breeders’ standings eight times. But nobody dominates racing today, at least not the same way or to the degree that Calumet did in the 1940s. Baffert, on the other hand, has won his five Derbies for five different owners.

“But who will be his sixth?

“’Thousand Words is getting better,’ Baffert said about the winner of the recent Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. Thousand Words doesn’t have tree-bending speed or knock-back acceleration, but he wins, and, even more, ‘He wants to win,’ Baffert said. ‘He’s a grinder, and he’s very professional.’ Thousand Words should improve as the distances stretch out, his trainer said, and the classic mile-and-a-quarter should bring out his best.

“Authentic is a different story. ‘He’s just raw talent,’ Baffert said about the colt that won the Sham Stakes despite ducking towards the inner rail in mid-stretch, perhaps shying from the grandstand noise. With the addition of earplugs, he recently worked a bullet three-quarters 1:12.20.

“’He’s light on his feet and has a lot of speed but he’s not made like a sprinter,’ Baffert said. ‘He’s barely tapped his talent.’

“Thousand Words and Authentic will both return March 7 in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita. And Nadal will go to Oaklawn Park to make his two-turn debut in the Rebel Stakes on March 14. Nadal, of course, won the recent San Vicente Stakes after battling through a scorched-earth half-mile in 44.09 seconds.

“With such a talented trio in his barn — Baffert said he would also include High Velocity among his horses with a chance to make the journey to Kentucky — he has the Jones record in sight. Or he would if he cared about such things.

“ ’I’ve never been one for worrying about records,’ he said before launching into a story about winning his 2,000th race.

“ ’We were at Hollywood Park, and this guy came up to me and said, “Do you realize you just won your 2,000th race?” I said, “Really? I thought I had won more than that by now.”

“ ’A few minutes later I saw Jerry Hollendorfer in the paddock, and I said, “Jerry, how many races have you won?” He said, ‘Oh, about 4,500 or so.” Records come and go.’

“True, but six Derby wins —that record hasn’t gone anywhere in 68 years. But it could soon go into the Baffert column.”

Thanks, Gary.

Santa Anita review

The feature on Saturday was the Grade 2 $200,000 Santa Monica Stakes for fillies and mares going seven furlongs. The sentimental favorite was the one-eyed Hard Not to Love and she didn’t disappoint. Even though she ran at the back of the compact five-horse field, she ran a perfectly timed race by Mike Smith and won by an easy 3 ½ lengths.

Hard Not to Love paid $3.20, $2.10 and $2.10. Mother Mother was second followed by Zusha, Lady Ninja and Road Rager.

Here’s what the winning connections had to say.

John Shirreffs (winning trainer): “She’s getting better and better. She’s getting into those repeat performances. The stewards allowed us to break from the post parade when she came out of the tunnel. Her groom, Martin Lopez, walked her around the [clubhouse] turn and she stayed calm. She never breaks, but she reacts very quickly. Mike [Smith] said he was waiting for her to relax and then he put her into the race. I love Mike, we go back a long way and we think a lot alike. He’s such a horseman, for him, it’s all about the horse. That’s above winning or losing, it’s always about the horse. It looked like this was her best race. We’re thinking about going into the Beholder Mile [on March 14]. I think as long as she can relax, with her style of running, it shouldn’t be a problem.”

Mike Smith (winning jockey): “There wasn’t a whole lot of pace other than the filly in the one hole (Road Rager), she and the one next to me (Mother Mother) had some speed. I could have been up there as well but she has been running so well just settling off of it. It was nice to see her show her eagerness to be in the race early. It certainly made my job a whole lot easier.

“She got into a really good rhythm once we passed over the gap at about the three-quarter pole. She kind of put her head down and got into a really nice rhythm. I knew she was gonna run well at that point. I gotta take my hat off to John Shirreffs and everybody, the groom and the gallop girl that gets on her. She is a lot of work and they have done a lot to get her here and it is paying off.”

Santa Anita preview

Sunday’s card is eight races with a 12:30 p.m. first post. But, the most interesting thing, at least to me, is the robust field sizes. After Saturday, where you even saw a four-horse race, the Sunday numbers seemed pretty good. Half of the races are on the turf and half the races are also restricted to Cal breds.

The feature is the seventh race, the Grade 3 $100,000 Sweet Life Stakes for 3-year-olds going 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. The favorite, at 6-5, is Laura’s Light for trainer Peter Miller and jockey Abel Cedillo. This horse has won two-of-three starts including a win in the Blue Norther and a second in the Jimmy Durante at Del Mar.

The second favorite, at 4-1, is Shines Her Life for John Sadler and Umberto Rispoli. This is only his second U.S. race after five races in Ireland. Her only win was a maiden special at Santa Anita.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 10 (2 also eligible), 9, 10, 6, 9, 12, 8, 11.

Ciaran Thornton’s SA pick of the day

RACE SIX: No. 5 Johnny Podres (8-1)

Johnny Podres is the second entry from trainer Steve Miyadi in Sunday’s race. The horse won last out in a dominating closing drive at Golden Gate Fields at a mile, the first career win. He passed horses and blew the field away late. We call these “lightbulb” races and it is an angle I like to look at especially from a value perspective. Since that last race we see nothing but bullet workouts, another indication the horse is feeling it. We are getting an 8-1 morning line for a trainer who is 28% maiden winner last race and 25% shipping. Miyadi has this race tied up with this value play and the favorite Fly the Sky who dominated here at Santa Anita last month.

Saturday’s result: Coast of Roan, under an expert ride by my favorite jockey Umberto Rispoli, raced exactly to plan and cruised to an easy late running victory for us. 5-1 was lower than we wanted but $13.60 for the win was nice.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Big races review

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday.

Laurel (4): $100,000 John B. Campbell Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Winner: Alwaysmining ($6.00)

Laurel (5): $100,000 Wide Country Stakes, fillies 3-year-olds, 7 furlongs. Winner: Naughty Thoughts ($18.20)

Laurel (6): $100,000 Miracle Wood Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 mile. Winner: Lebda ($9.80)

Laurel (7): Grade 3 $250,000 Barbara Fritchie Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 7 furlongs. Winner: Majestic Reason ($22.20)

Fair Grounds (6): $100,000 Colonel Power Stakes, 4 and up, 5 ½ furlongs on turf. Winner: Just Might ($42.60)

Laurel (8): Grade 3 General George Stakes, 4 and up, 7 furlongs. Winner: Firenze Fire ($3.00)

Tampa Bay (8): $100,000 Pelican Stakes, 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Winner: Killybegs Captain ($6.00)

Aqueduct (8): $100,000 Broadway Stakes, NY-bred fillies and mares 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Winner: Kept True ($5.80)

Fair Grounds (8): $100,000 Albert M. Stall Memorial Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Winner: She’sonthewarpath ($34.40)

Fair Grounds (9): Grade 3 $200,000 Mineshaft Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Winner: Silver Dust ($5.60)

Gulfstream (11): Grade 3 $150,000 Royal Delta Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Winner: Cookie Dough ($5.20)

Fair Grounds (10): Grade 3 $150,000 Fair Grounds Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Winner: Factor This ($18.80)

Fair Grounds (11): Grade 2 $300,000 Rachel Alexandra Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Finite ($7.40)

Oaklawn (9): $125,000 Dixie Belle Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 6 furlongs. Winner: Ring Leader ($10.00)

Fair Grounds (12): Grade 2 $400,000 Risen Star Stakes (first division), 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles. Winner: Mr. Monomoy ($17.00)

Golden Gate (7): $100,000 El Camino Real Derby, 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles. Winner: Azul Coast ($4.60)

Santa Anita (8): Grade 2 $200,000 Santa Monica Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 7 furlongs. Winner: Hard Not to Love ($3.20)

Fair Grounds (13): Grade 2 $400,000 Risen Star Stakes (second division), 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles. Winner: Modernist ($27.60)

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Sunday. All times PST:

1:25 Aqueduct (8): $100,000 Gander Stakes, NY-bred 3-year-olds, 1 mile. Favorite: Scilly Cay (9-5)

3:30 Santa Anita (7): Grade 3 $100,000 Sweet Life Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 5 ½ furlongs on turf. Favorite: Laura’s Light (6-5)

3:36 Sunland (8): $100,000 Enchantress Stakes, NM-bred fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile. Favorite: Two Stepper (5-2)

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

RACE TWO: No. 5 Virginia Hall (5-1)

She improved immensely on my figures in her most recent effort eight nights ago against tougher rivals. In that event, she broke slow but she put forth a decent run down the backstretch and through the turn prior to losing her action and some valuable ground when drifting out steadily to the top of the stretch. She still kept on trying to while running fifth while earning a quality charting in my view. A better journey along with the quick turnaround this evening should put her in the mix at a nice price.

Now, the stars of the show, Saturday’s results and Sunday’s entries.